Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

...Recent above-normal rainfall and much-improved antecedent
conditions have resulted in significant changes to the flood
potential across the region for the third 2018 Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Outlook...

=====================
ABOUT THIS PRODUCT...
=====================

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NOTICE: This product may migrate to a downloadable, PDF document by
March 2018.  Once this occurs, the information contained below will
no longer be available via standard NWS text product format.  Instead,
future NWS GSP Flood Potential Outlook text products will only refer
to the web address where the complete product can be downloaded.  If
you have any concerns about the unavailability of this product via NWS
text, please IMMEDIATELY contact the author of this product via the
methods shown at the bottom of this product.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Every two weeks from January through mid-March, NWS Greenville-
Spartanburg (GSP) issues a Flood Potential Outlook for the entire
service area (see county-to-region legend at the end of this outlook
for a list of counties serviced by NWS GSP).  These outlooks
forecast the potential for runoff, small stream, and mainstem river
flooding through late April, or the end of the winter recharge
season. The outlook is prepared based on an assessment of several
hydrometeorological factors, including recent and forecasted
precipitation and observed soil moisture, groundwater levels,
streamflows, reservoir levels, and recent flooding events.

This product and an archive of past Flood Potential Outlooks is also
located at:

http://weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook

For additional hydrological and meteorological information please
visit:

http://weather.gov/gsp/hydro

=================================
CLIMATOLOGY and SEASON to DATE...
=================================

The mainstem river flood season typically begins in late December.
The quantity, frequency, magnitude, and significance of river
flood events often increases through late winter with a peak in
early to mid-March. While the mainstem river flood season typically
ends by late April for the region, small-stream flash flooding can
occur year-round.

This season, the mainstem flood season began prematurely in
October across the western North Carolina mountains; however,
a dry fall and early winter resulted in the development of
drought conditions across the Piedmont.  Outside of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment, January 2018 was a dry month for the remainder of the
region, especially across the western Piedmont, where precipitation
totals were generally 50-75% of normal.  This exacerbated below-
normal hydrologic parameters, especially with respect to soil
moisture and streamflows and combined with weak long-range signals
for precipitation, suggested below-normal flood potential across
the Piedmont.

However, February 2018 has begun very wet in response to a more
active northern jet stream and the return of a southern jet
stream which traditionally brings additional moisture and energy
into the region. This additional activity has resulted in several
weak to average-strength storm systems over the past 7-10 days,
with some producing one- to two-weeks` worth of normal rainfall.
The result has been regionwide precipitation totals equivalent to
150-350 percent of normal for the month-to-date.  The highest
deviations have been across Upstate South Carolina, where runoff
and small-stream response has been impressive, albeit still
largely below flood levels.

A more persistent southwesterly flow pattern aloft is forecasted
to establish itself across the Southeast heading into the second
full week of February, which promises to keep the region in a
wet pattern and eliminate any lingering drought conditions.

Therefore, the overall flood outlook for late winter and spring
2018 has changed dramatically across the region with near-normal
conditions returning to the Piedmont after a prolonged dry spell.

=============================================
14-DAY OBSERVED PRECIPITATION and FLOODING...
=============================================

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        OBSERVED    % OF      MAINSTEM    SMALL STREAM
              PRECIP      NORMAL    FLOODING    FLOODING
              (in)

NC Piedmont   2.00-4.25 | 125-250 | None      | None
NC Foothills  2.00-4.25 | 110-225 | None      | None
NC Nrn Mnts   1.75-2.50 |  75-150 | NA        | None
NC Cntl Mnts  1.75-4.00 |  50-150 | None      | None
NC Srn Mnts   2.50-5.00 |  50-200 | None      | Iso. Minor

SC Mnts       4.00-5.25 | 150-225 | NA        | None
SC Foothills  3.75-4.75 | 175-250 | None      | Iso. Minor
SC Piedmont   3.75-5.00 | 200-275 | None      | None

GA NE Mnts/   3.75-6.00 | 125-250 | None      | None
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   4.00-5.00 | 175-250 | None      | None

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==========================
SNOW DEPTH and FORECAST...
==========================

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        SNOW   SNOW WATER  7-DAY SNOWFALL
              DEPTH  EQUIVALENT        FORECAST
              (in)         (in)      (2/9-2/16)
                                           (in)

NC Piedmont   None |      None |           None
NC Foothills  None |      None |           None
NC Nrn Mnts   None |      None |           None
NC Cntl Mnts  0-4  |     0-0.4 |           None
NC Srn Mnts   None |      None |           None

SC Mnts       None |      None |           None
SC Foothills  None |      None |           None
SC Piedmont   None |      None |           None

GA NE Mnts/   None |      None |           None
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   None |      None |           None

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=============================================================
1-10 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL...
=============================================================

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        10-DAY      % OF      MAINSTEM     SMALL STREAM
              PRECIP      NORMAL    FLOOD PTNTL  FLOOD PTNTL
              (2/9-2/19) (2/9-2/19) (2/9-2/19)   (2/9-2/19)
              (in)

NC Piedmont   2.00-3.00 | 140-280 | Slight     | Slight
NC Foothills  3.00-4.50 | 190-360 | Slight     | Slight
NC Nrn Mnts   2.50-4.50 | 150-500 | NA         | Slight
NC Cntl Mnts  2.50-6.00 | 100-670 | Slight     | Moderate
NC Srn Mnts   3.00-6.00 | 105-480 | Slight     | Moderate

SC Mnts       2.50-4.00 | 120-280 | NA         | Slight
SC Foothills  2.50-3.50 | 140-280 | Slight     | Moderate
SC Piedmont   2.00-3.00 | 120-240 | Near Zero  | Slight

GA NE Mnts/   3.00-5.00 | 120-310 | Slight     | Moderate
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   2.00-3.50 | 110-250 | Near Zero  | Slight

DEFINITIONS:

Flood Potential    Zero        = No flood potential
Categories:        Near Zero   = Very low flood potential
                   Slight      = Isolated Minor Flooding Possible
                   Moderate    = Scattered Minor Flooding Likely;
                                 Iso Moderate Flooding Possible
                   Likely      = Sct-Wdsprd Minor Flooding Likely;
                                 Iso Moderate Flooding Possible
                   Significant = Scattered Mod/Iso Major Flooding
                                 Likely

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==================================
8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...
==================================

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        8-14 DAY          15-28 DAY          MAR 2018
              PRECIP            PRECIP             PRECIP
              OUTLOOK           OUTLOOK            OUTLOOK
              (2/17-2/23)       (2/24-3/9)

NC Piedmont   Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
NC Foothills  Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
NC Srn Mnts   Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal

SC Mnts       Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
SC Foothills  Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
SC Piedmont   Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal

GA NE Mnts/   Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Near Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...
=====================================================================

--------------------
..IMPORTANT NOTES...
--------------------

It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding
of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of
dry weather and/or drought.  Several important and damaging flash
floods were observed during previous drought periods.  Residents are
strongly encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings,
even during significant drought.

The winter and early spring months are a critical time for the water
system as widespread winter precipitation normally restores
streamflows and reservoir levels following the spotty, convective
nature of precipitation during the summer and the drier weeks of
early fall.  This recharge of the water system is critical for
adequate water supply heading into the late spring and summer of
2018.  When the winter begins in a significant drought, it takes a
greater amount of precipitation to adequately complete this recharge.

----------------------------
..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE...
----------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------- SOIL/CROP MOISTURE ESTIMATES --------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              2/7           2/7                   2/10
              TOTAL^ COLUMN SOIL      CHANGE      SHORT-TERM
              SOIL MOISTURE MOISTURE  FROM        CROP MOISTURE
              ANOMALY       %ile~     Jan 19      INDEX*
REGION        (mm)          (%)       (mm)

NC Piedmont      0 to - 25 | 30-70 | +50 to +25 | +1 - +2, SAN
NC Foothills  + 50 to    0 | 50-70 | +25 to   0 | +1 - +2, SAN
NC Nrn Mnts   + 25 to - 25 | 30-70 |          0 | +1 - +2, SAN
NC Cntl Mnts  + 25 to - 25 | 30-70 |          0 | +2 - +3, Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   + 50 to + 25 | 50-80 |          0 | +2 - +3, Abv Nrml

SC Mnts/      + 50 to + 25 | 50-80 |        +50 | +2 - +3, Abv Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   + 25 to    0 | 30-70 |+100 to +50 | +2 - +3, Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   + 25 to    0 | 50-80 | +50 to +25 | +2 - +3, Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   + 25 to    0 | 30-70 | +50 to +25 | +1 - +2, SAN

DEFINITIONS:

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = The loss of moisture from the soil to the
                     atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the
                     soil to vegetation.

INTERPRETATION  = Note that above-normal temperatures and
                  below-normal precipitation exacerbate the loss of
                  soil moisture through evapotranspiration, while
                  below-normal temperatures and above-normal
                  precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits.
                  However, heading into fall and winter, cooler
                  temperatures and less-active or dormant vegetation
                  reduce demands on the water system and while still
                  important, the effects of above-normal temperatures
                  and below-normal precipitation are lessened.

*CROP MOISTURE  = Depicts short-term (< 1 month) dryness or wetness
  INDEX           impacting agriculture.  Negative values indicate
                  dryness, while positive values indicate wetness.
                  The index is not a depicter of medium-range (i.e.,
                  1-6 months) to long-range (i.e., >6 months)
                  wetness or drought.

                  SBN = Slightly Below Normal
                  SAN = Slightly Above Normal

^TOTAL COLUMN   = Defined as a 2-meter depth (6.56ft) and derived
                  from the North American Land Data Assimilation
                  System (NLDAS) which is a joint modeling effort
                  between the National Centers for Environmental
                  Prediction and the National Aeronautics and Space
                  Administration.

~PERCENTILES    = Normal is defined as anywhere within the 30-70th
                  percentiles, with above-normal or wet conditions
                  >70th and below-normal or dry conditions <30th.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------
..GROUNDWATER*...
-----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ GROUNDWATER WELL MEASUREMENTS --------------------
---------------- Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                             CHANGE***RECORD
                              DEPTH*  FEB**   SINCE   LOWEST and
                                2/7  MEDIAN    1/22   LEVEL  DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION          (ft)    (ft)    (ft)   (ft)

Caldwell     Granite Falls    19.61 | 19.92 | -0.59 | 26.43, 03/23/17
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 41.14 | 39.53 | -0.12 | 42.09, 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       45.67 | 39.04 | +0.24 | 45.67, 02/07/18
McDowell     Pleasant Gardens 28.15 | 29.09 | +0.05 | 31.89, 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  38.84 | 38.75 | -0.37 | 42.70, 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  27.20 | 25.50 | -0.97 | 29.69, 12/13/12

                                      CHANGE***       RECORD
                              DEPTH*  SINCE   %ile    LOWEST and
                                2/7    1/22   ****    LEVEL  DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION          (ft)    (ft)   (2/7)   (ft)


Anderson     Williamston       3.50 | -0.21 | 10-25 |  5.98, 06/25/02
Burke        Glen Alpine      10.45 | -0.71 | 50-75 | 13.84, 09/04/11
Cherokee     Marble            3.32 | -3.26 | 75-90 | 15.16, 11/28/16
Chester      Leeds Road       89.38 | +0.17 | 25-50 | 94.52, 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       18.75 | -0.65 | 10-25 | 23.32, 08/24/02
Haywood      near Cruso        4.50 | -0.55 | 25-50 |  6.96, 09/12/02
Iredell      Langtree         26.84 | -1.06 | < 1st | 33.03, 11/02/17
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  29.47 | -0.48 | 25-50 | 32.08, 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            6.42 | -0.76 | 75-90 | 11.15, 09/14/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 47.61 | +0.10 | 25-50 | 51.69, 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         29.84 | -0.66 | 25-50 | 42.19, 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    13.38 | -0.66 | 50-75 | 17.86, 08/25/08
White        Unicoi State Pk   4.26 | -1.17 | 25-50 |  6.49, 09/28/98

DEFINITIONS:

* DEPTH   = Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the
            surface, unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is
            the reverse or height above the surface.  Therefore, the
            higher the depth value, the less the groundwater supply
            because the groundwater level is further from the
            surface.

**MEDIAN  = Current depth values that are larger than the monthly
            median can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal
            conditions while current depth values that are smaller
            than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to
            wetter-than-normal conditions.

***CHANGE = A POSITIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            increased or is further from the surface.  Therefore,
            a NEGATIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            decreased or is closer to the surface.  In periods of
            drought, negative changes are ideal.  However, positive
            changes are NORMAL during the late summer and early fall,
            as rainfall is typically isolated to scattered and less
            significant, causing losses to surface and subsurface
            water sources due to increased evapotranspiration,
            evaporation, and increased consumption, while negative
            changes are NORMAL during the late fall and winter, as
            widespread significant precipitation recharges surface
            and subsurface water sources and environmental demands
            are lower.

            Note, however, that for many groundwater sites, the
            depth of the wells are very deep and there is a lag
            between significant rainfall and deep infiltration
            into subsurface water supplies. If the rainfall is not
            significant or occurring over a sustained period of time,
            the water may never reach the groundwater wells.
            Additionally, if the rainfall is significant but
            occurring quickly and only once during a period of
            several weeks, a shallower groundwater well may spike and
            then return to near pre-rainfall levels.

****PERCENTILE = The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as
                 follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal

The percentile values are computed monthly. Therefore, percentiles
referenced in the chart above are for the month of January.
Groundwater well statistics change throughout the water year such
that the median monthly depth typically reaches a minimum in autumn
and a peak in late spring.  This can result in a dramatic change
in the percentile of an observed depth from one month to the next,
even if the observed depth does not change significantly.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------
..STREAMFLOW*...
----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY REGION --------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                  % OF    %ILE    %ILE   CLASSIFICATION
REGION          NORMAL
                 (2/8)   (2/8)   (1/22)  (2/8)

NC Piedmont     68-161 | 30-82 |  1-42 | Slightly-Above Normal
NC Foothills    78-162 | 42-90 | 19-83 | Slightly-Above Normal
NC Nrn Mnts    128-149 | 80-85 | 84-92 | Above Normal
NC Cntl Mnts    71-156 | 28-84 |  7-91 | Slightly-Above Normal
NC Srn Mnts     62-133 | 20-81 | 15-82 | Slightly-Above Normal

SC Mnts/        81-125 | 41-74 |  4-59 | Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont     62-111 | 30-77 |  2-23 | Normal

GA NE Mnts/     75-125 | 28-74 | 13-59 | Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont     65- 99 | 39-67 | 11-20 | Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY RIVER SYSTEM ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                        % OF    %ILE    %ILE   CLASSIFICATION
RIVER BASIN           NORMAL
                       (2/8)   (2/8)   (1/22)  (2/8)

Broad (GA)            65- 93 | 39-55 | 11-13 | Normal
Broad (NC/SC)/Pacolet 61-124 | 34-74 |  9-57 | Normal
Catawba               71-162 | 42-90 |  1-83 | Above Normal (Upr)/
                                               Slight Abv Nrml (Lwr)
Enoree/Tyger          62-115 | 30-73 |  3-22 | Normal
French Broad          88-133 | 54-81 | 54-82 | Slightly Above Normal
Nantahala/Tuckasegee/ 62-110 | 20-59 | 15-41 | Normal
Little Tennessee

Pigeon                71-156 | 32-84 | 40-91 | Slightly Above Normal
Rocky/Yadkin          68-161 | 30-82 |  6-65 | Slightly Above Normal
Reedy/Saluda          69-121 | 38-74 |  3-43 | Normal
Tallulah/Chattooga    75-125 | 28-74 | 19-59 | Normal
Toxaway/Keowee/       78-104 | 29-61 |  3-20 | Normal
Savannah

---------------------------------------------------------------------

DEFINITIONS...

*RESERVOIR = Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers
 INFLUENCE   (i.e., rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced
             positively and/or negatively by the control of releases
             from those reservoirs.  For a list of mainstem rivers
             and their regulation influence, please see the bottom
             of this product.

---------------
..RESERVOIRS...
---------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------- POOL ELEVATIONS and DROUGHT STAGES ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                           AVG*     AVG  TARGET     2/7     2/7   2/7
                          ELEV     ELEV    ELEV   ELEV-     MIN   DGT
RESERVOIR       NWS ID     2/7     1/22     2/7  TARGET    ELEV* STGE
                          (ft)     (ft)    (ft)    (ft)    (ft)

BROAD SYSTEM

Summit          (None)   98.3  |  98.7  |  97.5 | +0.80 |  85.0 | NA
Gaston Shoals   (BLAS1)  99.85 |  98.97 |    NA |    NA |  98.0 | NA
Ninety-Nine Isl (NNIS1) 100.30 |  99.00 |    NA |    NA |  98.0 | NA

CATAWBA SYSTEM (As of 2/1, Total Reservoir Storage 137% of Target)

James           (BRWN7)  96.72 |  97.16 |  94.2 | +2.52 |  92.0 | 0
Rhodhiss        (RHON7)  97.17 |  97.09 |  97.0 | +0.17 |  94.0 | 0
Hickory         (OXFN7)  98.35 |  97.76 |  96.2 | +2.15 |  94.0 | 0
Lookout Shoals  (LKSN7)  97.23 |  96.93 |  97.0 | +0.23 |  94.0 | 0
Norman          (CWAN7)  97.34 |  96.79 |  94.3 | +3.04 |  91.3 | 0
Mountain Island (MOUN7)  98.10 |  97.10 |  96.0 | +2.10 |  94.3 | 0
Wylie           (FOMS1)  98.46 |  97.34 |  97.0 | +1.46 |  94.0 | 0
Fishing Creek   (FCDS1)  96.28 |  98.31 |  98.0 | -1.72 |  95.0 | 0
Great Falls     (GTFS1)  97.58 |  97.64 |  97.5 | +0.08 |  95.0 | 0
Cedar Creek     (CDCS1)  97.75 |  97.61 |  97.5 | +0.25 |  96.0 | 0

NANTAHALA/LITTLE TENNESSEE/TUCKASEGEE SYSTEM

Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)    85.48 |  86.35 |  85.0 | +0.48 |  83.0 | ND
Wolf Creek    (WCDN7)    85.20 |  86.58 |  85.0 | +0.20 |  83.0 | ND
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)    93.70 |  92.98 |  93.0 | +0.70 |  91.0 | ND
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)    99.28 |  97.87 |  98.0 | +1.28 |  96.0 | 0
Glenville     (THPN7)    91.20 |  90.80 |  90.3 | +0.90 |  85.7 | ND
Nantahala     (NANN7)    83.05 |  77.65 |  84.3 | -1.25 |  76.5 | ND
Queens Creek  (QCDN7)    89.35 |  88.35 |  86.8 | +2.55 |  85.8 | ND
Fontana       (FONN7)  1651.80 |1650.44 |1653.5 | -1.70 |1645.5 | NA

SAVANNAH SYSTEM (As of 2/1, Total Reservoir Storage is 79% of Target
                 for Jocassee and Keowee (Duke Energy) and 73% for
                 Hartwell and Russell (USACE))

Jocassee      (JCSS1)    95.63 |  95.25 |    NA |    NA |  77.0 | 2
Keowee        (KEOS1)    98.38 |  97.54 |    NA |    NA |  94.6 | 2
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   653.12 | 651.40 |657.58 | -4.46 | 625.0 | 1
Russell       (RBDS1)   475.12 | 473.20 |475.0  | +0.12 | 470.0 | ND

PROJECTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL...assuming net inflows increase to 50% of normal then
                hold steady over the next two months, the pool
                elevation is projected to increase 1-3 feet through
                mid-March, and potentially another 1-2 feet through
                mid-April for a total rise of 2-4 feet. This pool
                rise is sufficient to bring the lake back to near
                the Drought Level 1 trigger pool, but insufficient
                to make full long-term recovery relative to rising
                target elevations for summer storage.

FONTANA LAKE... projected to remain near the flood guide curve
                through the winter if near-normal rainfall occurs.

DEFINITIONS...

*AVG ELEV   = Reporting the daily average elevation factors in the
              fluctuations in pool elevation due to scheduled
              discharges and/or power generation.

MINIMUM     = The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the
ELEVATION     pool can be while meeting local community and river
              system needs.  Drought release reduction plans may
              begin above the minimal elevation. For Lake Hartwell
              and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation
              marks the bottom of conservation storage or the top of
              the inactive pool.  Drought release reduction plans
              begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0 feet
              at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B.
              Russell Lake.

ND          = No Drought
NA          = Not Applicable

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==========================
LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK...
==========================

Therefore, given current antecedent conditions and short- to long-
range precipitation guidance, the latest long-term flood outlook
through the end of April 2018 is as follows...

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        RUNOFF            SMALL STREAMS     MAINSTEM RIVERS
              POTENTIAL         FLOOD POTENTIAL   FLOOD POTENTIAL

NC Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Near Normal     | Near Normal
NC Foothills  Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml | Near Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Above Normal    | Above Normal    | NO MAINSTEMS
NC Cntl Mnts  Above Normal    | Above Normal    | Slightly Above Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Well-Abv Nrml   | Above Normal    | Slightly Above Nrml

SC Mnts       Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml | NO MAINSTEMS
SC Foothills  Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml | Near Normal
SC Piedmont   Slight Abv Nrml | Near Normal     | Near Normal

GA NE Mnts/   Above Normal    | Slight Abv Nrml | Near Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Near Normal     | Near Normal     | Near Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
==================

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center (LMRFC) and the Southeast River Forecast
Center (SERFC).

The 1-10 day future precipitation is derived from guidance produced
by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg.

The long-term precipitation outlooks are derived from guidance
produced at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Streamflow information is courtesy of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

The mainstem rivers flood outlook is produced in collaboration with
the LMRFC and the SERFC.

=====================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================

The second flood outlook should be issued around:
Tuesday, February 20th, 2018.

=======================
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES...
=======================

For the latest LEVELS of streams and mainstem rivers across the
region please visit and bookmark:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/
area.php?wfo=gsp&hydro_type=0&hsa_type=1

For the latest status of DROUGHT conditions across the region please
visit and bookmark:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Please note the U.S. Drought Monitor is released every Thursday
morning, but only factors in data through Tuesday morning.  Any
precipitation which may occur after Tuesday morning, but before
Thursday morning, is considered in the following week`s product.

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
MAINSTEM RIVER LEGEND...
========================

REGION        RIVER

NC Piedmont   Catawba            (Heavily Regulated)
              South Fork Catawba (Slightly Regulated)
              Rocky
              Yadkin             (Regulated)
NC Foothills  Broad              (Regulated)
              Catawba            (Regulated)
NC Nrn Mnts   NONE
NC Cntl Mnts  French Broad       (Slightly Regulated)
              Little Tennessee   (Heavily Regulated)
              Nantahala          (Heavily Regulated)
              Oconaluftee        (Slightly Regulated)
              Pigeon
              Tuckasegee         (Heavily Regulated)
NC Srn Mnts   French Broad       (Slightly Regulated)
              Little Tennessee   (Heavily Regulated)
              Nantahala          (Regulated)
              Tuckasegee         (Regulated)
SC Mnts       NO MAINSTEM RIVERS
SC Foothills  Chatooga
              Enoree
              Pacolet            (Slightly Regulated)
              Reedy              (Slightly Regulated)
              Saluda             (Regulated)
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)
              Toxaway/Seneca     (Heavily Regulated)
              Tyger
SC Piedmont   Broad              (Regulated)
              Pacolet            (Slightly Regulated)
              Reedy              (Slightly Regulated)
              Saluda             (Regulated)
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)
              Tyger
GA NE Mnts/   Chatooga
   Foothills  Tallulah/Tugaloo   (Heavily Regulated)
GA Piedmont   Broad
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements over
the past couple of years.  Additional enhancements are planned for
future flood outlooks. Your feedback and recommendations
are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs.
Please direct feedback, recommendations, questions, and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970 x234
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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