Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS72 KMHX 191440
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
211445-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
940 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...THOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT A WETTER TIME PERIOD
FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY MARCH. THEREFORE...THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF
THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH APRIL...OR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF FEBRUARY 16TH ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...BASED ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR
FEBRUARY 18TH...HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES WERE BEING ESTIMATED ACROSS THE CHOWAN RIVER BASIN
AND PARTS OF THE ROANOKE RIVER BASIN.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SIGNFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE
LATEST CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...AN EL NINO WATCH
CONTINUES...THOUGH THE CHANCE AT REACHING WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IS
DECREASING AND IF EL NINO CONDITIONS DO OCCUR ARE ONLY EXPECTED FOR
A COUPLE OF MONTHS BEFORE RETURNING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. BASED
ON THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENSO CONDITION AS WELL AS THE LATEST
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT
BELOW...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FEBRUARY
THROUGH APRIL. SEE THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEB SITE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY EARLY
MARCH 6TH.

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.