Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 162034
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MARCH 16, 2015

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near to below
normal at this time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison,
Dolores and San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that snow typically
accumulates into April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff
begins.

Currently, there are no sites forecast to peak at or above the flood flow
at or below the 10% exceedance level.

A few sites are forecast to peak above bankfull at the 25% or 10% exceedance
levels but, in general, below average peaks are expected across much of western
Colorado.  The Upper Colorado headwaters, especially the Blue River Basin,
will likely see near average peaks.  Keep in mind specific forecast
procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

February precipitation was generally below average across western Colorado
with the overall basin preciptation amounts ranging between 75% and 105% of
average.  However, pockets of near to above average precipitation occurred
in the eastern San Juan and southeast Gunnison River basins due to the storm
system at the end of the month and the Upper Colorado River headwaters received
near to above average precipitation scattered throughout the month.  Seasonal
precipitation is below average at 80% in all basins with the exception of the
Upper Colorado which is at 90% of average.

Overall March 1 snow water equvialent is also below median in all basins
(between 70% and 80%) with the execption of the Upper Colorado which was at
95% of median.  However, there is much variation between individual SNOTEL sites
within each basin due to the generally warm winter which has seen precipitation
falling as rain instead of snow at times as well as some earlier than normal
melt that occurred during February at relatively high elevations.

The March 1 volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
generally below average for much of the Yampa/White, Gunnison and Dolores
basins and much below average in the San Juan basin.  The Upper Colorado
mainstem basin is generally forecast to have near average runoff volumes.

As of March 16, month to date precipitaton is near to below average across
western Colorado.  Raw model guidance of forecast April through July runoff
volumes has decreased from the beginning of the month, as have the forecast
peak flow values.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2015-03-16   1900   2200   2500   3200   4100
ELK - MILNER, NR            5750 2015-03-16   2200   2500   3000   3500   5000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2015-03-16   5000   6000   7500   8000  10500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2015-03-16   1300   2000   2400   3000   3800
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999 2015-03-16   6000   7500   9500  10500  13000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8324 2015-03-16   1700   1900   2500   2800   3200
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2180 2015-03-16    300    350    400    450    650
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1530 2015-03-16    550    600    720    870   1100
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2015-03-16     70     85     95    120    180
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6550 2015-03-16   1900   2100   2800   3700   5000
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2015-03-16   4500   5000   6600   9100  13000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3140 2015-03-16    950   1100   1300   1750   2200
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17100 2015-03-16   3000   3400   4200   5600   7100
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2015-03-16   8700   9800  12500  16500  24000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2015-03-16    900   1000   1200   1600   2000
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13870 2015-03-16   1300   1700   2200   2700   3400
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1410 2015-03-16     60     90    130    190    230
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520 2015-03-16   8000   8000   8000   8500   9000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1780 2015-03-16    550    770    800    870   1100
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2015-03-16   1650   1800   2200   2600   3000
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2015-03-16    830    900    990   1050   1400
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200 2015-03-16  15000  16500  19500  24500  34000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2015-03-16    800   1000   1200   1400   1600
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2015-03-16   2200   2700   3200   3700   4100
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810 2015-03-16   2000   2500   3000   3700   4100


CBRFC/Alcorn






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