Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 051912
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MAY 5, 2017

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is higher than usual
at this time for the Gunnison River Basin and near normal for the Dolores,
Yampa/White and Upper Colorado mainstem.

Currently, no sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow. A few sites
are forecast to peak above bankfull at the 10% exceedance levels. In general,
average to above average peaks are expected across western Colorado. Keep in mind
instantaneous peaks can be higher than mean daily peaks, especially in headwater
basins. Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all
streams.

April precipitation was below normal across most of western Colorado, with the
exception of the Yampa/White basin which had 110 percent of average and the Upper
Colorado mainstem which had 90% of average.  Otherwise, the Dolores, Gunnison and
San Juan basins ranged from 50 to 70 percent of average for the month. However,
water year precipitation totals are still near to above average for the year.
The Yampa/White and Upper Colorado mainstem are at 105 percent of average, and the
Gunnison, Dolores, and San Juan basins are at 110 percent of average.

May 1st basin averaged snow water equivalent is near to above median in all basins
except the Yampa/White which is at 80 percent of median.  The Gunnison and Dolores
basins are at 110 to 115 percent of median while the Upper Colorado mainstem and
San Juan basin are 90 to 95 percent of median.

Spring temperatures and rain events greatly affect the pattern of snowmelt
runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows. It is important to keep in
mind that an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall
during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.


A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2017-05-01   1700   1900   2000   2500   3000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5720 2017-05-01   2300   2500   3000   3500   4000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2017-05-01   6000   7000   7500   8000  10000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    15143 2017-05-01   2500   3000   4000   5000   6000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2017-05-01   9000   9500  10500  12000  13500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8886 2017-05-01   1800   2000   2200   2400   2800
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2100 2017-05-01    340    360    400    470    550
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2017-05-01    540    570    650    730    830
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    440 2017-05-01     90    100    110    130    150
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6100 2017-05-01   1900   2100   2800   3300   4000
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2017-05-01   5300   5600   7000  10000  13000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2017-05-01   1400   1500   1800   2100   2500
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2017-05-01   4200   4500   5000   6200   7000
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2017-05-01  11000  12000  14000  20000  25000
EAST - ALMONT               3180 2017-05-01   1700   1900   2100   2400   2600
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14280 2017-05-01   1700   1900   2200   2900   3300
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1340 2017-05-01    140    160    190    260    300
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2017-05-01  12000  14000  14350  15000  16000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2017-05-01    900    950   1050   1200   1300
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2017-05-01   2500   2700   3000   3400   3800
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2017-05-01    800   1000   1100   1300   1400
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2017-05-01  22000  25000  28000  36000  43000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5800 2017-05-01   1700   1800   2100   2200   2400
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10500 2017-05-01   3200   3600   4100   4400   4800
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2017-05-01   3200   3700   4300   4700   5100
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1120 2017-05-01    350    370    410    500    600

CBRFC/Alcorn



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