Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON MA
930 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /7/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE
INCLUDING THE BLACK AND MOHAWK RIVERS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

THE ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE...WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUED TO PREVAIL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. BRIEF MODERATION OCCURRED DURING MID MARCH AND AGAIN DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MARCH. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES DURING
THE PAST TWO WEEKS RANGED FROM FOUR TO SEVEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THREE TO SIX DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.

ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS ON THE 29TH AND
30TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FELL AS SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...REPLENISHING THE
SNOWPACK IN MOST AREAS. ALSO THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THE PAST
TWO WEEKS HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR SOME REDUCED MELT OF THE SNOWPACK.

IT APPEARS AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM EARLY TO MID APRIL
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGATIVE FOR A TIME
AND THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION IS FORECAST TO TURN
POSITIVE. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR BLOCKING UPSTREAM...AND THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF THE EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH.

THIS SETUP WOULD ALLOW COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...WITH GREATER
THAN NORMAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN DEPICTS A PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY THE 4TH.

THIS LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR TWO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF DURING THE WEEK OF APRIL 6TH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
A LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

WE HAVE NOTED SOME SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE LEFTOVER SNOWPACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW YORK STATE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT WATER LADEN SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH
TRACES OF SNOW ON LONG ISLAND AND FAR NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF NEW YORK
CITY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY ZERO TO LESS THAN 0.10
INCH.

HEADING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGIONS WE NOTE
NEARLY BARE GROUND ALONG THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER WITH 1 TO 5 INCH
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER EQUIVALENTS UP TO 3 INCHES NEAR ESOPUS CREEK. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ALONG THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WERE NIL TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WE NOTE SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM A TRACE UP
TO 3 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
UP TO 1 INCH.

SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...BUT
DECREASE ALONG THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGIONS. SNOW
DEPTHS RANGE FROM 5 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 40 INCHES ALONG THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
REGION. ELSEWHERE NEARING THE MOHAWK AND MID HUDSON VALLEYS SNOW
DEPTHS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS VARY FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE VALLEYS...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...EXCEPT 10 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

REMAINING SNOW COVER IN MASSACHUSETTS GENERALLY REMAINS CONFINED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ELSEWHERE SNOW COVER IS
EITHER SPOTTY OR THE GROUND IS BARE. MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER HAS BEEN
DEPLETED DUE TO RECENT WARMTH...THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND
ALSO THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 29TH AND 30TH.

SNOW COVER CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS AND BERKSHIRES.

SNOW COVER IN CONNECTICUT RANGES FROM BARE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE...UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS.

HEADING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND THERE IS EITHER BARE GROUND OR LITTLE OR
NO SNOW COVER OBSERVED DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ZERO TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HILLS.

...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW COVER ACROSS VERMONT IS STILL FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD AND SNOW DEPTHS
VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MID CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGIONS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3
TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...AND 12 TO 24 INCHES
ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED WITH
39 INCHES REPORTED AT JAY PEAK.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION...3 TO 8 INCHES HEADING
NORTH FROM THE MID TO UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...8 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW COVER IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS ALSO FAIRLY WIDEPSREAD EXCEPT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM NIL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SEACOAST REGION AND A TRACE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MERRIMACK VALLEY....2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MONADNOCKS AND MID
CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK...12 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL TO LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MONADNOCKS AND MID CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY REGION...4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK AND
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARING THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE DUE TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS
CURRENTLY NO SNOW FOUND NOTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE MID
COAST REGION. ELSEWHERE SNOW DEPTHS ALONG THE COAST RANGE FROM 1 TO
6 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS QUICKLY INCREASE TO 6 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...THEN 18 TO 36 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MAINE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN MAINE REPORTING 3 TO 4 FOOT SNOW DEPTHS...INCLUDING THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...AND
8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE...INCLUDING HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BUT THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED A PORTION OF THE
NEARLY RIPE SNOWPACK TO MELT OR EVAPORATE. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT ON THE 29TH AND 30TH HAD ADDED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPORARY WARMUPS
DURING MID MARCH AND LATE MARCH ALSO ALLOWED FOR SOME RUNOFF. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A TEMPORARY WARMUP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDED MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND SOME
INFILTRATION AS WELL.

AS A RESULT...NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE MAPS AS OF 1 APRIL 2014
INDICATED NEAR NORMAL SURFACE MOISTURE ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE DEEPER
SNOWPACK RESIDES. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WERE NOTED...AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAD FALLEN AS
SNOW. THE NEAR TERM SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX EXAMINES THE LONGER TERM SOIL MOISTURE
STATES OVER A PERIOD OF WEEKS TO SEVERAL MONTHS. THE PALMER INDEX AS
OF MARCH 29TH 2014 INDICATED MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WITH EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK. NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY (USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE GROUNDWATER LEVELS AS OF APRIL 1ST 2014 WERE
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM INTERSTATE 90 AND POINTS SOUTH
INCLUDING WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE OBSERVED TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...AS COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEEPER SNOWPACK
REMAINED NEARLY PERSISTENT. HARRISVILLE...LOUISVILLE AND SUNY
PLATTSBURGH WERE REPORTING RECORD LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR EARLY
APRIL.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE REPORTED TO BE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS EXCEPT ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. DALTON
MASSACHUSETTS WAS REPORTING BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE REPORTED TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST OF VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
INTERIOR MAINE DUE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTENT
SNOWPACK AND LIMITED RUNOFF. GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT WELD MAINE AND
POLAND MAINE WERE NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS NOTED AT PEMBROKE.

RESERVOIR LEVELS...

IN NEW YORK STATE...THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WAS
RUNNING 90.5 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF APRIL 1 2014. THIS IS 2.9
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SCITUATE RESERVOIR WAS RUNNING ABOVE 100 PERCENT
CAPACITY. THE RESERVOIR POOL ELEVATION LEVEL AS OF 12Z APRIL 1ST
2014 WAS OBSERVED AT 285.7 FEET. THIS LEVEL IS 1.7 FEET ABOVE THE
SPILLWAY.


...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

AS OF APRIL 2ND 2014...STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WERE
RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ALONG INTERSTATE 90 AND POINTS
SOUTH INCLUDING MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE.
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
RANGED FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THE SARANAC RIVER AT
PLATTSBURGH WAS REPORTING WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE...MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER...EAST BRANCH
OF THE AUSABLE RIVER AND GREAT CHAZY RIVER AT PERRY MILLS WERE ALL
STILL ICE AFFECTED.

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. SOME NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS WERE NOTED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND FRANKLIN COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW LEVELS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.
HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE 29TH AND 30TH CONTRIBUTED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WERE IN
MINOR FLOOD WITH SEVERAL OTHERS IN ACTION STAGE ON APRIL 2ND 2014.

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND RANGED FROM BELOW NORMAL
TO NEAR NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE STILL ICE
COVERED OR AFFECTED ACROSS VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MID COAST OF MAINE
WERE AT TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW LEVELS PRIMARILY DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE 29TH AND 30TH.

ICE COVERAGE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER ICE
WAS STILL FAIRLY THICK AND WIDESPREAD ICE REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...NORTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

THE FROST DEPTH REPORTED AT CARIBOU MAINE AS OF APRIL 2ND 2014 WAS
12 INCHES.

ICE WAS STILL RUNNING 20 TO 30 INCHES THICK ACROSS MANY AREAS OF
INTERIOR MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH SOME THICKNESSES UP
TO 3 FEET NOTED. DOWNEAST RIVERS OF MAINE WERE EITHER ICE FREE OR
COVERED WITH WEAK OR ROTTING ICE.

ICE WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
AND NORTHERN VERMONT BUT WEBCAMS INDICATED SIGNS OF ROTTING ALONG
THE MAD RIVER...WITH OPEN SPOTS OBSERVED ALONG THE WINOOSKI RIVER. A
RECENT REPORT INDICATED THE MISSISQUOI AT EAST HIGHGATE HAD 1 TO 2
FOOT THICK ICE BLOCKS FLOATING DOWNSTREAM. OTHERWISE WATER WAS
FLOWING IN CHANNELS OR IN SOME PLACES ON TOP OF ICE AFFECTED AREAS
IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

ICE WAS BREAKING UP ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER WITH LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE
NOTED FROM WEBCAMS.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER AND POINTS SOUTH ALONG THE HUDSON
RIVER IN NEW YORK STATE HAD LIMITED ICE OR NO ICE.

...CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE
INCLUDING THE BLACK AND MOHAWK RIVERS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

THE ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ICE JAM FLOOD THREAT HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE...WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

GREATER THAN NORMAL SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...INCLUDING THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF MAINE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. STREAMFLOWS AND ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS THESE AREAS.

ALTHOUGH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MID APRIL...THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AWAY
AT MELTING THE WATER LADEN SNOWPACK. SNOWPACK TEMPERATURES HAVE
RECENTLY RISEN TO NEAR 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK STATE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VERMONT CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN
MAINE.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THESE AREAS EITHER IN THE FORM OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR RAIN. THIS WOULD ADD FURTHER TO THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS WITHIN THE SNOWPACK... EVENTUALLY INCREASING RUNOFF
AND INCREASING THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INCLUDING WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND HEADING NORTH INTO THE
LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORMAL TO GREATER
THEN NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ANTECEDENT
MOIST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ANTICIPATED...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP JAMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE
WHERE THE ICE CONTINUES TO BE WIDESPREAD.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT

                  ***WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/NERFC/SFPOG.HTML***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NERFC ON THURSDAY 17 APRIL 2014.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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