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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

APRIL 2, 2013

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 2 2013:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-March precipitation was 80 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 55 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
75 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
65 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 60 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 60 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

March Streamflow was around 135 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
40 percent in the Gila, and generally 60 percent in the Little Colorado.

April 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 0 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, the upper Gila, and in the Little Colorado
River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states remain much below average in the Gila and
Little Colorado Basins. However, soil moisture states have improved in
portions of the Salt-Verde Basins from the late January and early March
storms.

Climate Conditions:

Neutral climate conditions suggest equal chances for above or below average
precipitation.

Forecast Summary:

The April-May forecast volumes were between 10-24 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, and 31 to 80 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 22 to 47 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /malibu1/home/tjc/wsup/wy13/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed:                    Apr 1 2013

LOWER Colorado
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. Johns, nr    Apr-Jun   0.80    23   1.07   0.75    3.5
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv             Apr-May   0.01    10   0.03   0.00   0.10
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cyn, blo   Apr-May   0.40    24   0.97   0.00   1.70
Gila River
  Gila, nr                        Apr-May    7.8    47   10.9    7.5   16.5
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, blo        Apr-May    8.0    38   12.0    7.1     21
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr                    Apr-May    2.5    34    3.6    2.0    7.3
  Clifton                         Apr-May    4.6    27   10.1    4.0   17.3
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Safford V  Apr-May   14.0    36     21   13.3     39
  San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam,   Apr-May    4.0    22    7.9   0.99   18.4
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr                   Apr-May     40    31     65     36    127
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, abv      Apr-May    4.7    80    7.5    3.8    5.9
Verde River
  Blo Tangle Ck, abv Horsehoe Da  Apr-May   17.5    49     27   16.7     36

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`13        SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             60              55
  Salt                   75              80
  Verde                  55              80
  Little Colorado        60              75
  Bill Williams          25              65

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                      APRIL 1 2013
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila               0
  San Francisco            0
  Upper Salt               0
  Verde                    0
  Little Colorado          0


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`13
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   40
  Salt                  150
  Verde                 100
  Little Colorado        60

**************************************************************************

SPECIFIC SITE MONTHLY STREAM FLOW SUMMARY (MAR `13):
Provisional USGS Data

                                   Obs     % Med

  Gila - Gila, nr                 11.0       70
  San Fransisco - Clifton          8.7       45
  Gila - Solomon, nr              16.1       40
  Salt - Roosevelt, nr            79.0       70
  Tonto - Roosevelt, nr           36.0      235
  Verde - Horseshoe Dam, abv      58.0      100

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

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