Extended Streamflow Prediction
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Water Supply Outlook                                           January 7, 2017


After a dry and warm start to the new water year, winter really kicked into
gear in December. Although October and November precipitation and snowpack
numbers fell well below normal, December storms brought those numbers up to
near normal or even above in some instances.

Current soil moisture conditions are variable across much of the ABRFC`s
area. The headwaters of the Arkansas River had slightly less than normal
soil moisture at the end of December. However, this is a marked improvement
over what was seen during the fall. Similar soil moisture conditions prevail
across the remainder of Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Snowpack conditions were slightly above normal in the headwaters of the
Arkansas River and along the Rio Grande divide in Southern Colorado by the
end of December. Further south in New Mexico, snow pack water equivalents were
slightly below normal.

Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 103 percent-of-average for
the Arkansas River at Salida and 101 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir.
Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and Huerfano Rivers is forecast to
be 75, 91, and 84 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to
provide 100 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is
forecast to be 89 percent-of-average.

In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is
forecast to be 63 and 71 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and
Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 62 and 80 percent-of-average, respectively.

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters
of Colorado is generally above normal. Reports range from 211 percent-of-
average at Brumley to 72 percent-of-average at Glen Cove. Snowpack above Salida,
as measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is slightly above average with 114 percent-
of-median snowpack. Snowpack in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is 110 percent-
of-median. In the Purgatoire River basin, the snow pack is at 176 percent-of-
median.

New Mexico`s water-year-to-date precipitation is slightly above average, overall.
Reports range from 184 percent-of-average at Wesner Springs to 71 percent-of-
average at North Costilla. The snowpack in the Canadian River basin is about 97
percent-of-median.

Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 74 percent-of-average above
Pueblo Reservoir and 65 percent-of-average below it.  The upper reservoirs are
at 92 percent of last year`s total.  The lower reservoirs are at 57 percent of
last year`s total.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and
precipitation outlooks for the nation. The outlooks for January through March
call for higher chances of above normal temperatures in the headwaters of the
Arkansas River in Colorado, in southern Colorado, and in the Canadian River
headwaters in New Mexico. CPC`s precipitation outlook calls equal chances of
above, near, or below normal precipitation in Colorado and a slightly higher
chance of below normal precipitation in northern New Mexico.

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