Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 041937
ESPNM
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 4, 2016

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 DEC PRECIP     OCT-DEC PREC    JAN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             150            120               120
ANIMAS                       150            125               115
LOWER SAN JUAN               195            175                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         DEC FLOW       OCT-DEC FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               105%            100%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JAN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      105
VALLECITO                   140
LEMON                       100

TOTAL                       105



San Juan River Basin
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs                  Apr-Jul    235   109    330    180    215
  Carracas, nr                    Apr-Jul    390   103    580    300    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Blanco Dam  Apr-Jul     58   107     81     46     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam, blo    Apr-Jul     68   105    100     55     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr                     Apr-Jul    230   110    330    165    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield, nr     Apr-Jul    210   108    280    155    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta, nr       Apr-Jul    770   105   1120    550    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr          Apr-Jul     55   100     75     40     55
Animas River
  Durango                         Apr-Jul    440   106    560    330    415
San Juan River
  Farmington                      Apr-Jul   1150   105   1700    830   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                        Apr-Jul     25   109     35   14.0     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                       Apr-Jul   1130   103   1700    830   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr                      Apr-Jul     32   103     53     21     31

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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