Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 220748
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...Showers and storms this morning then cooling...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will cross the region this morning into
early afternoon with showers and isolated storms out ahead. Cold
advection ensues behind the front, with winds becoming quite gusty
out of the NW. The cold advection will be enough to develop lake
effect clouds late tonight through Wednesday night, and possibly
some spits of light rain. High humidity and cooler temperatures
leading to no fire weather concerns.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-222015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until 0900.
                    Isolated thunderstorms until 0800. scattered
                    showers until 1300, then slight chance of
                    showers until 1400.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler...except 12 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1960).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.30 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (470).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0800.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1410).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-222015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until 0700.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
                    scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1800).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.21-0.33 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 27 mph becoming west around 15
                    mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1610).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-222015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700. Isolated thunderstorms until 1200.
                    scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler...except 12 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 8 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1790).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.12-0.24 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 17 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (340).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1240).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-222015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until 0700.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
                    scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1560).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.14-0.23 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1170).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-222015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until 0700.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
                    scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1630).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.31 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0800 until 1400.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1480).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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