Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 161913
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Getting warmer again...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure extends from the southern plains toward
Georgian Bay. With that ridge of high pressure moving east, warmer
air is already (slowly) trying to work into the region. That
process will accelerate tonight, with increasing southwest winds
resulting in a milder night. High temperatures will jump into the
60s the next two days, and some spots will take a run at 70
degrees on Wednesday. No precipitation is expected for the rest of
the work week. Southwest winds will be gusty at times over the next
couple of days.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-171000-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (820).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-171000-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-171000-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....41-46...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (790).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-171000-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-171000-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
313 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JZ



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