Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 070917
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...SHARPLY COOLER TODAY WITH RAIN ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS ABOUT TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER AIR IS SPILLING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO CONTINUING
A CERTAIN DISTANCE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
BUT RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT WINDS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-072200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0700...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.37 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-072200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1100...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1600.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.63 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-072200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0700...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.23 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-072200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1100. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 0700 UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (810).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.35 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-072200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.55 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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