Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 292053
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL DELIVER A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON LABOR DAY...AS A COLD
FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE REGION.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER 0500. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.23 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.48 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.19 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.15 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1100. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.43 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.18 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0500. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30-0.42 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.17 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-300815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0500. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0500. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.22 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 90-95 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.36 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
453 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.13 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.22-0.40 IN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    1000.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

$$

TL





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