Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 181359
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OHS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TREND MORE NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE...WITH SOME LATEST INDICATIONS OF ITS FORMATION
FORCING LIGHT EAST FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN A TOUCH
ELEVATED WITH SOME MINOR LAKE HURON MODIFICATION TO BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS (WITH EITHER NORTH TO EAST FLOW PATTERN). GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 48.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (600).

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........51  39  27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  48  47
RH..............49  49  49
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10
SMOKE DISP......600 500 500

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........27  27  28  22  16  10  9   9   8   5   3   1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............44  42  39  38  36  35  35  34  34  32  30  29
RH..............53  55  57  62  67  69  69  72  69  75  81  85
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
SMOKE DISP......500 400 400 400 400 400 300 200 100 100 100 100

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN STEARNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140418.OHS__.02/APX






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