Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 222340
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
514 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1735 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN
THE AFTERNOON...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-83%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 5000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    2000...THEN 2900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW
                    1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 1100-1300 FT AGL
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 20-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200 THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5300-6300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR 0800-1000...THEN GOOD 1000-1200
                    ...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 11-13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/22-17 79 28  8 58 38 SSW 23 36 3 3  SW 51  7700  SW 39259055     E
04/22-18 79 26  6 56 40 SSW 21 33 3 2  SW 54  7217  SW 39244012     E
04/22-19 79 26  6 52 46 SSW 18 30 3 2  SW 53  5041  SW 33167239     E
04/22-20 76 25  5 47 54 SSW 16 26 3 2  SW 51  2865 SSW 29 90466   G
04/22-21 73 25  5 43 62 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 49   690 SSW 23 13693 P
04/22-22 69 27  7 40 69 SSW 14 23 3 1  SW 55   903 SSW 24 19649 P
04/22-23 66 28  8 39 71 SSW 15 23 3 1  SW 61  1116  SW 25 25605 P
04/23-00 63 30  9 38 73 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 67  1329  SW 28 31561 P
04/23-01 67 29  8 36 78  SW 16 25 3 1  SW 68  1057  SW 28 25269 P
04/23-02 72 21  4 35 80  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 69   786  SW 28 18977 P
04/23-03 76 26  6 34 82  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 70   515  SW 29 12686 P
04/23-04 72 25  5 33 83 WSW 16 25 3 1  SW 71   712 WSW 24 13870 P
04/23-05 67 22  4 33 81 WSW 14 22 3 1  SW 73   910 WSW 21 15054 P
04/23-06 63 22  4 33 78 WSW 13 21 3 1  SW 73  1108 WSW 17 16237 P
04/23-07 63 22  4 32 79   W 14 22 3 1  SW 70  1725   W 18 28805 P
04/23-08 63 22  4 31 78   W 15 24 2 1  SW 67  2342   W 20 41373  F
04/23-09 63 22  4 30 78   W 17 28 2 1  SW 63  2959   W 21 53940  F
04/23-10 63 22  4 32 69   W 18 29 2 1  SW 61  3867   W 24 84855   G
04/23-11 63 22  4 35 59   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 60  4775   W 26115770    V
04/23-12 63 17  3 38 50   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 58  5683   W 30146685    V
04/23-13 63 17  3 39 46   W 21 32 2 1 WSW 55  5839   W 31158749     E
04/23-14 63 17  3 39 44   W 21 35 2 1 WSW 52  5995   W 32170813     E
04/23-15 68 17  3 38 44   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 48  6150   W 35182876     E
04/23-16 68 17  3 38 41   W 22 36 2 1 WSW 47  6247   W 33180685     E
04/23-17 68 17  3 36 42   W 23 36 2 1   W 46  6344   W 32178493     E
04/23-18 56  6  1 36 40   W 22 35 2 1   W 45  6442   W 31176301     E
04/23-19 56  6  1 34 42   W 21 32 2 1   W 45  5616   W 30149393    V
04/23-20 56  6  1 31 46   W 17 29 2 1   W 44  4791   W 29122486    V
04/23-21 56  4  1 29 49   W 15 24 2 1   W 44  3966 WNW 28 95578   G
04/23-22 56  4  1 28 50   W 14 22 2 1   W 44  3469 WNW 26 79726   G
04/23-23 56  4  1 27 52   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 44  2972   W 24 63874   G
04/24-00 46  1  0 28 51   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 44  2475   W 22 48022  F
04/24-01 46  1  0 28 52   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 46  2611   W 24 53904  F
04/24-02 46  1  0 28 53   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 48  2747   W 25 59786  F
04/24-03 46  1  0 28 55   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 51  2883   W 26 65668   G
04/24-04 46  1  0 25 65   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 51  2260   W 24 49785  F
04/24-05 46  1  0 22 76   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 52  1637   W 22 33902 P
04/24-06 55  1  0 22 77 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 52  1013   W 21 18019 P
04/24-07 55  1  0 25 69 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 51  1968   W 22 40698  F
04/24-08 55  1  0 31 54 WSW 16 25 3 1 WNW 51  2922   W 24 63377   G
04/24-09 55  1  0 37 42 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 49  3877   W 25 86056   G
04/24-10 55  1  0 41 36 WSW 17 26 3 1   W 49  4259   W 24 90208   G
04/24-11 55  1  0 44 32 WSW 17 29 3 1   W 49  4642   W 23 94360   G
04/24-12 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 18 30 3 1   W 48  5025   W 23 98512   G
04/24-13 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 30 3 1   W 48  5620   W 24118245    V
04/24-14 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 47  6215   W 25137978    V
04/24-15 77  0  0 45 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6811   W 26157711     E
04/24-16 77  0  0 46 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6741   W 28163373     E
04/24-17 77  0  0 46 34 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 45  6671   W 29169035     E
04/24-18 62  0  0 45 37 WSW 18 30 2 1   W 45  6601 WSW 30174698     E
04/24-19 62  0  0 43 40 WSW 17 28 2 1   W 45  6021   W 31163244     E
04/24-20 62  0  0 40 46 WSW 15 25 2 1   W 45  5441   W 32151790     E
04/24-21 62  0  0 38 50 WSW 14 22 2 1 WNW 45  4861   W 33140336    V
04/24-22 62  0  0 37 52 WSW 13 20 2 1   W 47  4600   W 32127957    V
04/24-23 62  0  0 37 51 WSW 10 17 2 1   W 49  4340   W 30115578    V
04/25-00 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 53  4079   W 29103199    V
04/25-01 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 14 2 1   W 52  3678   W 26 85378   G
04/25-02 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 51  3278   W 23 67557   G
04/25-03 49  0  0 36 52  SW  8 13 2 1   W 49  2878   W 20 49736  F
04/25-04 49  0  0 33 57  SW  8 13 2 1   W 47  2402   W 16 37148 P
04/25-05 49  0  0 32 59 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 45  1925   W 13 24560 P
04/25-06 52  0  0 33 56 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 41  1449   W  9 11972 P
04/25-07 52  0  0 37 49 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 40  2577   W 12 30307 P
04/25-08 52  0  0 42 42 SSW  8 13 3 1   W 38  3705 WSW 14 48642  F
04/25-09 52  0  0 47 35 SSW  8 13 3 1 WSW 37  4832 WSW 16 66976   G
04/25-10 52  0  0 50 32 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 39  6119 WSW 18106105    V
04/25-11 52  0  0 51 31  SW 12 17 2 1 WSW 41  7406  SW 22145233    V
04/25-12 60  1  0 52 29  SW 13 21 2 1 WSW 44  8693  SW 24184362     E
04/25-13 60  1  0 53 29  SW 14 22 2 1 WSW 45  8865  SW 25199858     E
04/25-14 60  1  0 54 28  SW 15 23 3 1 WSW 47  9038  SW 28215354     E
04/25-15 60  1  0 54 29  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 48  9210  SW 29230850     E
04/25-16 60  1  0 53 31  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 51  8995  SW 30229997     E
04/25-17 60  1  0 51 34  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 53  8779  SW 30229145     E
04/25-18 73  5  1 49 37  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 55  8564 SSW 31228292     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...COOPER
REQUESTED BY...WENDY FINNEGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.BIGCR.04/BOU



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