Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 211707
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Creek Pile Burn...NATURE CONSERVANCY
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1007 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...It will be mild and windy through Wednesday. An
upper level system and surface cold front will push through the
area Wednesday night. This will bring cooler temperatures along
with snow. The best chance for snow looks to be late Wednesday
night and Thursday. Total snowfall of 4 to 8 inches from
Wednesday night through Friday is possible. Confidence in this
system is lower than usual. The main part of the storm is expected
to move through Wyoming and the heaviest snowfall is expected to
the north of Colorado.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1600, then partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....51-55.
Min humidity........25-30%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.
Mixing height.......2800-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45-60 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........5 moderate.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-40%). Slight chance of rain
                    and snow after 0100 until 0200, then chance of
                    rain and snow until 0300, then slight chance of
                    rain and snow.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........56%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13-22 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Mixing height.......3200-4100 ft AGL until 1900, then 1700-2700 ft
                    AGL until 2300, then 3200-3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 35-45 mph until 2300, then west 50-60
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1800, then very good until
                    1900, then good until 2000, then fair until
                    2100, then good until 2200, then very good
                    until 2400, then excellent.
Haines Index........5 moderate.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(40-50%). Slight chance of rain
                    and snow until 1100, then chance of rain.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........32%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10-16 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......5700-6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 45-55 mph until 1100, then 25-35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 0900, then excellent until
                    1600, then very good.
Haines Index........2 very low .

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Colder, snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the
lower 30s. Northeast winds 5-6 mph.
.FRIDAY...Snow likely. Lows around 11. Highs in the mid 20s.
Northwest winds 5-6 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow. Lows around 7.
Highs in the upper 20s. West winds 5-12 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Creek Pile Burn.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/21-10 12  1  0 49 35   W 25 41 5 1   W 38  3137   W 51136867    V
02/21-11 13  1  0 52 31 WSW 29 46 5 1   W 33  3559 WSW 48150851     E
02/21-12 18  1  0 53 31 WSW 28 45 5 1   W 32  3521 WSW 47142612    V
02/21-13 22  1  0 54 28 WSW 24 39 5 1 WSW 31  3483 WSW 45134517    V
02/21-14 27  1  0 54 28 WSW 21 33 5 1  SW 30  3444 WSW 43126567    V
02/21-15 28  3  1 54 28 WSW 21 33 5 1  SW 33  3648 WSW 44137577    V
02/21-16 30  5  1 53 31  SW 21 33 5 1  SW 36  3852 WSW 45148980    V
02/21-17 31  5  1 52 32  SW 22 35 5 1  SW 39  4056 WSW 46160777     E
02/21-18 31  4  1 49 36  SW 21 33 5 1 WSW 44  3249 WSW 41117515    V
02/21-19 31  4  1 46 40  SW 20 31 5 1 WSW 48  2442 WSW 38 79853   G
02/21-20 31  4  1 43 45  SW 18 30 5 1 WSW 54  1635 WSW 33 47792  F
02/21-21 31  3  1 43 45  SW 20 31 5 1 WSW 55  2150 WSW 39 73425   G
02/21-22 30  3  1 43 47  SW 22 35 4 1 WSW 58  2665 WSW 45104128    V
02/21-23 30  8  2 43 47 WSW 24 39 4 1 WSW 60  3179 WSW 51139901    V
02/22-00 31 14  3 43 47 WSW 24 39 4 1 WSW 62  3380 WSW 53155128     E
02/22-01 33 19  4 42 49 WSW 24 39 3 1 WSW 64  3580 WSW 55171116     E
02/22-02 34 25  5 41 53 WSW 23 37 3 1 WSW 67  3781 WSW 58187863     E
02/22-03 36 23  5 40 52   W 23 37 3 1 WSW 64  3505 WSW 56170563     E
02/22-04 39 22  4 39 52   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 63  3230 WSW 54152816     E
02/22-05 41 19  4 38 54   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 61  2954   W 53135809    V
02/22-06 41 19  4 37 55   W 17 28 2 1 WSW 64  3111   W 52138839    V
02/22-07 41 19  4 36 56   W 17 26 2 1 WSW 68  3267   W 49141450    V
02/22-08 41 19  4 36 54   W 16 25 2 1 WSW 73  3424   W 48143641    V
02/22-09 41 19  4 38 49   W 16 25 2 1 WSW 73  4000 WSW 45157703     E
02/22-10 41 19  4 40 44   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 73  4576 WSW 43168856     E
02/22-11 44 26  6 42 39   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 74  5152 WSW 39177098     E
02/22-12 44 26  6 44 35   W 15 23 2 1 WSW 68  5822 WSW 36182909     E
02/22-13 44 26  6 45 33   W 14 23 2 1 WSW 62  6492 WSW 32184757     E
02/22-14 44 26  6 45 32   W 14 22 2 1 WSW 56  7162 WSW 30182642     E
02/22-15 44 26  6 44 34   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 49  6769 WSW 25152211     E
02/22-16 44 26  6 42 37   W 12 18 2 1 WSW 41  6376 WSW 22124150    V
02/22-17 65 56 32 39 42   W 10 16 2 1 WSW 33  5983   W 18 98459   G
02/22-18 65 56 32 37 45 WNW  8 14 2 1 WSW 35  4993   W 15 63667   G
02/22-19 65 56 32 34 50 NNW  6  6 2 1 WSW 36  4003 WNW 10 36210 P
02/22-20 65 56 32 33 51   N  5  5 2 1 WSW 36  3014  NW  6 16090 P
02/22-21 65 56 32 32 54   N  3  3 2 1  SW 36  2866 NNW  5 12444 P
02/22-22 65 56 32 31 57   N  3  3 2 1  SW 35  2718 NNE  3  9092 P
02/22-23 77 58 35 30 61 NNE  3  3 2 1  SW 35  2570  NE  2  6035 P
02/23-00 77 58 35 30 60 NNE  3  3 2 1  SW 38  2727 ENE  5  9917 P
02/23-01 77 58 35 29 61 ENE  5  5 2 1  SW 41  2884 ENE  6 14202 P
02/23-02 77 58 35 27 66 ENE  6  6 2 1  SW 44  3041   E  7 18893 P
02/23-03 77 58 35 26 68   E  7  7 2 1  SW 41  2889   E  8 20451 P
02/23-04 77 58 35 24 74   E  7  7 3 1  SW 38  2737   E  9 21745 P
02/23-05 94 72 56 23 77   E  7  7 3 1 SSW 36  2585   E 10 22776 P
02/23-06 94 72 56 22 81   E  6  6 3 1 SSW 32  2467   E 12 23628 P
02/23-07 94 72 56 22 81 ENE  6  6 3 1 SSW 29  2350   E 12 24300 P
02/23-08 94 72 56 23 77 ENE  5  5 3 1 SSW 25  2232   E 13 24793 P
02/23-09 94 72 56 25 71 ENE  5  5 3 1 SSW 21  3015   E 13 32775 P
02/23-10 94 72 56 27 66  NE  6  6 3 1 SSW 15  3798 ENE 13 40386  F
02/23-11 98 76 62 29 60  NE  6  6 3 1 SSW 10  4582 ENE 12 47626  F
02/23-12 98 76 62 29 60  NE  6  6 3 1  SW 10  4741 ENE 12 46494  F
02/23-13 98 76 62 29 59 NNE  7  7 3 1   W  9  4901  NE 10 45174  F
02/23-14 98 76 62 27 63 NNE  7  7 3 1   W  9  5061  NE 10 43665  F
02/23-15 98 76 62 26 66 NNE  8 13 3 1   W  9  4367  NE 12 41754  F
02/23-16 98 76 62 24 72 NNE  9 14 3 1   W  9  3673  NE 12 38546 P
02/23-17 98 74 59 23 74 NNE  9 15 3 1   W  9  2979 NNE 13 34042 P
02/23-18 98 74 59 21 78   N  9 14 3 1   W  9  2839  NE 13 32247 P
02/23-19 98 74 59 20 78   N  8 13 3 1 WSW 10  2700  NE 13 30472 P
02/23-20 98 74 59 19 77   N  7  7 3 1  SW 10  2561 ENE 13 28717 P
02/23-21 98 74 59 18 77   N  6  6 3 1  SW  9  2607 ENE 13 27593 P
02/23-22 98 74 59 18 73 NNW  6  6 3 1  SW  9  2653   E 12 26410 P
02/23-23 95 49 25 17 74 NNW  5  5 3 1  SW  8  2699   E 10 25169 P
02/24-00 95 49 25 16 74 NNW  5  5 3 1 WSW  8  2651   E 10 22885 P
02/24-01 95 49 25 15 75 NNW  5  5 3 1   W  7  2603   E  9 20668 P
02/24-02 95 49 25 13 80 NNW  5  5 3 1 WNW  7  2555   E  8 18518 P
02/24-03 95 49 25 12 83 NNW  5  5 3 1 WNW 10  2555   E  7 16415 P
02/24-04 95 49 25 11 87  NW  5  5 3 1  NW 13  2555   E  7 14311 P
02/24-05 77 38 16 11 87  NW  5  5 3 1  NW 16  2556   E  6 12207 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...MEIER
REQUESTED BY...Chris Wennogle
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702567.0/BOU


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