Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 211510
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Tess "Test" Fire...VT FPR
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1110 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on March 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Light rain and snow showers will continue this afternoon with
precipitation amounts less than a tenth of an inch and new
snowfall of a dusting to 1 inch possible. A strong arctic
front will pass across the prescribed burn area tonight...with
brief snow squalls and a sharp wind shift from south to northwest.
This wind shift is expected around midnight. New snowfall tonight
of a dusting to several inches expected. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible late tonight into
Wednesday. High pressure and drier weather returns for Thursday.

NOTE - THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE FIRE
WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE 2016 FIRE WEATHER SEASON. DAILY
FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY RESUME IN LATE MARCH OF 2017.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain showers late in the morning. A chance
                    of rain showers early in the afternoon...then a
                    slight chance of rain showers early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-3600 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........81     76     67
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     10
Temp............42     43     43
RH..............73     70     70
20 ft wind......SW 5   W 5    W 5
20 ft wind gust.       10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   3000   3600
Transport wind..W 5    W 7    W 10
Haines index....3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of snow showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 15.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming
                    northwest 5 to 13 mph with gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight...becoming
                    north around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3500 ft AGL...increasing to 4200-4300 ft
                    AGL after midnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph...increasing to 22 to 26
                    mph late.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........58     40     41     83     74     65
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     20     20
Temp............41     37     35     33     29     24
RH..............70     75     75     72     78     71
20 ft wind......W 5    W 3    W 5    W 6    NW 8   NW 13
20 ft wind gust.       5             10     15     20
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   2900   2200   2700   4200   4300
Transport wind..W 12   W 12   W 12   W 15   NW 20  NW 24
Haines index....4      5      4      4      3      2

$$
Forecaster...Taber
Requested by...Tess Greaves
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704807.0/BTV
.EMAIL eric.evenson@noaa.gov



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