Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 141140
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR F-01 RX...PA AIR NATIONAL GUARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY.  CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANT
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-6000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH...INCREASING TO 32 TO 37
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  64  64  64  94  94  94  94
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................59  61  64  67  68  70  71  72  71  72
RH..................79  75  71  64  63  59  56  54  52  49
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......10  12  13  15  16  17  17  17  17  16
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.0 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....17  21  25  29  32  36  37  37  35  32
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 2000...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1900 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 31 MPH...DECREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............94  94  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........        OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
TEMP................71  70  67  67  66  65  65  64  64  63  62  61
RH..................49  50  66  68  70  72  74  77  79  82  85  88
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......16  15  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.7 3.2 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....31  30  28  24  20  17  17  18  20  21  22  23
LAL.................1   1   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    OCCASIONAL RAIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1400...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 26 TO 32 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 31
                    TO 32 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.........OCNL   OCNL   OCNL   OCNL   OCNL   OCNL
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV............SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
TEMP................60     59     60     60     60     60
RH..................91     95     90     85     82     63
20 FT WIND..........S 12   S 13   S 13   SW 13  SW 13  W 14
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     15     20
MIX HGT (FT)........1400   1500   1700   2200   2900   2500
TRANSPORT WIND......S 26   S 32   S 31   S 30   SW 30  W 31
LAL.................5      5      5      5      1      1
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAYDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140414.F01RX.01/CTP



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