Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 240335
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Kerr Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
935 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on May 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will be building over the region over the next day
and bring some of the warmest temperatures of the year to the burn site.
This feature will weaken however as it moves over...allowing for west
winds to return to the burn site over the next few days. Look for breezy
to windy Wednesday afternoon...then windy Thursday with critical fire
conditions expected.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to around 25 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL increasing to 11800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (102000 knot-ft) in the morning...increasing
                    to excellent (219500 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      4      2      2      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     57     69     75     78     80
RH..............42     27     17     13     11     10
20 ft wind......W 2    W 4    W 6    W 8    W 10   W 11
20 ft wind gust.5      5      10     15     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....7100   7100   7100   11800  11800  11800
Transport wind..W 2    W 6    W 13   W 18   W 21   W 22
Haines index....3      3      4      5      6      6
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (199500 knot-ft) early...decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........8         11        2         1
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............78        67        59        54
RH..............10        15        21        26
20 FT wind......W 11G20   W 9G20    W 7G15    W 6G15
Mix hgt (ft)....10500     10500     BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..W 22      SW 9      SW 8      SW 8
Haines index....6         6         5         4
Vent Rate.......EXNT      EXNT      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709978.1/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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