Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 250131
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Corral...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
731 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on June 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture will remain across the region for the next few days with a
series of disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of
the area each afternoon and evening.  Some storms may produce
locally heavy rain, wind gusts over 50 mph and hail.  Greatest rain
coverage will be today and Sunday and then decreasing Monday and
Tuesday as flow starts to turn more westerly and pushes moisture
south of area.  Temperatures will remain much cooler through Monday
before warming back to near the century mark for the lowlands by
Wednesday. Relative humidities will also fall back into the teens
as temperatures warm back up.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....55-56.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 6
                    to 11 mph with gusts to around 25 mph early in
                    the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 8 to 9 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the south 6 to 7 mph after
                    midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (165700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (2900 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........91     91     91     76     76     76
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     40     40     40
LAL.............5      5      5      5      5      5
Temp............84     79     69     64     58     57
RH..............31     37     53     66     81     86
20 ft wind......W 10   S 14   SE 12  SE 6   SE 6   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.20     25     25     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....11800  11800  11800  400    400    400
Transport wind..W 15   SE 17  E 14   SE 7   SW 5   SW 5
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vent Rate.......EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....79-84.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL increasing to 12700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 11 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (25900-63300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........55        55        77        77
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        70        70
LAL.............2         2         5         5
Temp............56        68        78        80
RH..............91        60        43        40
20 FT wind......S 7G15    S 9G15    S 11G20   S 11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....3700      3700      12700     12700
Transport wind..SE 8      S 9       SW 7      SW 6
Haines index....3         3         3         4
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711287.5/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us



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