Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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230
FNUS74 KLZK 191148
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for PCS East Horseshoe stand 1288/07...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
548 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on January 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...Arctic high pressure and very cold air will continue
shifting toward the southeast United States. Clockwise flow
around the high will bring southwest winds into Arkansas and a
warming trend through the weekend. Moisture will also increase,
with more clouds tonight and Saturday along with isolated showers.
Better chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
noted Sunday afternoon and night as a cold front arrives from the
Plains.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........43 at ignition...Max 51.
RH..................49 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise South winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Dispersion..........13 increasing to 27 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 41 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    32 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3168 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  45  47  49  51  49  46
RH..............49  49  47  46  44  48  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  22  23  24  24
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 31 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after midnight.
Dispersion..........16 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1707 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  44  44  44  43  43  43  43  42  42  41  41
RH..............62  65  65  68  70  73  73  76  82  86  89  92
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  23  23  23  26  29  31  29  25  22  22  24
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20

.SATURDAY...

Temperature.........Max 57.
RH..................Min 72 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....South 26 to 31 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
Dispersion..........26.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1745 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............40  42  45  47  49  51  53  54  56  57  56  54
RH..............96  89  79  79  80  80  80  77  74  72  77  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.26  29  30  31  31  31  31  30  30  29  29  29
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...J Lewis
Requested by...R.L. Self
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800595.1/LZK
.EMAIL rlself@fs.fed.us



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