Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 210133
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Reeves Branch Aerial (Big Piney)...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
733 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
Rainfall will diminish in coverage later tonight. Some spotty
showers will linger Tuesday morning, decreasing during the
afternoon. Cloud cover is expected to persist through much of the
day on Tuesday. High pressure will bring drier weather for
Wednesday.

.TUESDAY...

Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 54 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds north at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog in the
                    morning. Chance of rain showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........11 increasing to 20 late in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 10 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6255 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO
Temp............59  62  64  66  67  67  66  64
RH..............72  65  60  56  54  54  54  58
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LVORI...............2.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Dispersion..........3 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2810 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  60  59  57  56  54  53  52  51  50  49  48
RH..............62  67  67  72  72  77  77  80  83  86  89  93
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.8   8   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Dispersion..........9 increasing to 21 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 30 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    19 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 7563 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  49  51  54  59  63  67  70  71  71  69  67
RH..............93  89  83  74  62  54  47  44  42  44  49  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...44
Requested by...Michael Haisten
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702422.2/LZK
.EMAIL Mhaisten@fs.fed.us


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