Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 241820
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Manteo Marsh RXB...NC Forest Service
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
tonight. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
late Saturday. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross late
Wednesday night or early Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 33580 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Max 33.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.90 to 29.95 inHg.

TIME (EST)         2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............35  28  24  24
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............72  71  70  67
RH.................65  68  68  73
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd.....6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......3.0 3.3 3.6 2.5
Transp wind dir....SE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd....9   9   9   9
LVORI..............1   1   1   2
ADI................30  32  33  26
Haines index.......4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..27  30  34  23
Stability class....B   B   B   B

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy...then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Patchy fog after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph until early
                    morning...becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 1494 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 3.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.77 to 29.90 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............24  24  26  29  30  30  31  31  38  51  58  58
Weather cov........                                PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type.......                                FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............64  61  60  59  59  58  57  56  56  56  56  55
RH.................75  78  78  80  80  83  86  90  90  86  86  90
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd.....7   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   3   2   1   1
20 FT wind gust....10  10  10              5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
Transp wind spd....8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   7   7   8   8
LVORI..............3   3   4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
ADI................6   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
Haines index.......4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..11  2   2   2   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   2
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 15 mph with
                    gusts up to 25 mph in the late morning and
                    early afternoon...then increasing to around 15
                    mph with gusts up to 30 mph late. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late.
Mixing height.......Max 1600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph...becoming south 10 to 15
                    mph early in the afternoon...then increasing to
                    20 mph late.
Vent Rate...........Max 20125 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 24.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.64 to 29.79 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............58     52     32     31     32     36
Weather cov........PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY               S CHC
Weather type.......FOG    FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........                                   S CHC
Temp...............54     57     64     69     70     68
RH.................93     90     73     61     59     63
20 ft wind.........N 1    NW 2   S 5    S 8    S 12   S 14
20 ft wind gust....                     15     25     25
Mix hgt (ft).......300    600    1300   1500   1400   1200
Transport wind.....N 8    NW 7   NW 5   SW 6   S 10   S 17
LVORI..............6      6      4      3      2      2
ADI................9      7      8      10     16     24
Haines index.......3      4      5      4      3      5
VRate mph-ft/1000..2      4      6      9      15     20
Stability class....F      F      F      B      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Elardo
Requested by...Jamie Dunbar
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702823.0/MHX
.EMAIL jamie.dunbar@ncagr.gov


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