Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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123
FNUS74 KMOB 021250
FWSMOB

SPOT FORECAST FOR EGLIN WILDLAND FIRE...EGLIN AFB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0830 CDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER IS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MEANDERING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN DRIER NORTHERLY
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
MOSTLY RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 MILES IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
LOCAL VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE COULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING
AND FOG PRONE AREAS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL 3400-3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    ...THEN DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL LATE.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 9
                    TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 34.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 2...THEN INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....C BECOMING B EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING C EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)...........88     83     79     78     81
WEATHER COV.......S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP..............73     79     82     82     80
RH................87     74     67     67     72
20 FT WIND DIR....ESE    S      S      S      S
20 FT WIND SPD....3      6      8      8      8
20 FT WIND GUST...              15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)......1000   2600   3300   3400   3000
TRANSP WIND DIR...SE     S      S      S      SSW
TRANSP WIND SPD...6      9      14     16     16
DISPERSION........8      20     30     37     36
LVORI.............6      3      3      2      3
STABILITY CLASS...C      C      C      C      C
CWR...............20     20     20     50     50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO 4 TO 6
                    MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....23 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 5 EARLY IN THE EVENING INCREASING
                    TO 6 LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 7
                    DECREASING TO 6 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STABILITY CLASS.....C BECOMING D.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%)...........88     92     92     93     91     88
WEATHER COV.......CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP..............77     74     72     71     70     69
RH................76     84     90     90     93     93
20 FT WIND DIR....SSW    S      SE     SE     SSE    SSW
20 FT WIND SPD....5      3      2      1      2      3
20 FT WIND GUST...
MIX HGT (FT)......1600   700    300    300    300    300
TRANSP WIND DIR...SW     SW     S      S      S      SW
TRANSP WIND SPD...13     8      3      3      5      6
DISPERSION........23     5      3      3      3      4
LVORI.............3      5      6      6      6      6
STABILITY CLASS...C      D      D      D      D      D
CWR...............50     50     50     50     40     40

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST-SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 12
                    TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 31.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 2 INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....B BECOMING C IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%)...........90     89     83     82     79     72
WEATHER COV.......CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP..............69     71     75     78     80     80
RH................93     87     79     71     67     65
20 FT WIND DIR....WSW    WSW    WSW    WSW    WSW    WSW
20 FT WIND SPD....1      2      6      9      10     9
20 FT WIND GUST...                     16     17     16
MIX HGT (FT)......300    800    1800   2500   3000   3300
TRANSP WIND DIR...WSW    WSW    WSW    WSW    W      W
TRANSP WIND SPD...6      7      12     14     14     14
DISPERSION........1      6      19     28     32     34
LVORI.............7      5      3      3      3      2
STABILITY CLASS...B      B      C      C      C      C
CWR...............40     70     70     70     70     40

$$
FORECASTER...16
REQUESTED BY...BRETT WILLIAMS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160502.EGLIN.01/MOB



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