Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FNUS73 KMQT 191135
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Spot Forecast for Whispering Pines RX...MI DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
735 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Near red flag conditions are expected today due to
very dry conditions, gusty westerly winds, and above normal
temperatures. Relative humidities around the burn site are running
around 30 to 40% already this morning, and will further decrease
into the lower 20s and possibly into the teens later this morning and
through this afternoon. Westerly winds are expected to increase
later this morning and persist through the afternoon hours, with wind
gusts up to 25 to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will be running a
bit cooler today compared to yesterday, but we`re still looking at
temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal. On Friday,
temperatures will be running around 20 degrees above normal with
relative humidities around 40% around the burn site; however, we`re
still looking at the potential for breezy winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....51 at ignition...Max 71.
Min humidity........37 percent at ignition...Min 19 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds west at 11 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 13 mph.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 32 mph decreasing to 20 to 22 mph
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Fair (274) at ignition. Max...good (434)
                    increasing to excellent (1024) early in the
                    afternoon, then increasing to excellent (1236)
                    in the afternoon decreasing to good (511) early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1700 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2600-4400 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon, then increasing to 3000-4800 ft AGL
                    late decreasing to 1500 ft AGL early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........24  15  12  9   6   5   3   2   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............51  56  60  63  67  69  70  70  68  64
RH..............37  33  28  24  21  19  19  19  24  30
33 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
33 ft wind spd..11  14  14  14  15  15  15  11  11  11
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..9   11  11  11  12  12  12  9   9   9
Wind gust.......12  17  17  17  17  17  17  12  12  12
VIndx kt-ft/100.274 434 713 1024123611991049808 511 251
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.31  30  31  32  32  29  25  22  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.7 2.6 3.7 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.3 3.0 1.5
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Min 45.
Max humidity........Max 79 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds 4 to 9 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds up to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 29 mph shifting to the southwest 31
                    to 36 mph by midnight.
Ventilation index...Poor (0).
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
Sky (%).........7   6   4   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   7   8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............60  57  55  53  52  51  50  49  48  47  46  46
RH..............39  45  49  54  56  58  59  62  64  66  73  78
33 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   6   6   6
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Wind gust.......                                    6   6   6
VIndx kt-ft/100.45  0   7   63  68  73  75  78  78  78  75  73
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  22  25  29  31  33  35  36  36  36  35  33
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Max 72.
Min humidity........Min 51 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 11 mph.
20-foot winds.......South winds 4 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 26 to 32 mph.
Ventilation index...Good (443) increasing to good (573) late.
Mixing height.......100-1900 ft AGL increasing to 1000-2500 ft AGL
                    late.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........9      4      3      5      5      8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............46     52     61     69     72     71
RH..............79     74     63     55     51     54
33 ft wind......S 7    S 7    S 10   S 11   S 11   S 11
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 8    S 9    S 9    S 9
Wind gust.......                     11     11     11
VIndx kt-ft/100.70     30     178    443    573    416
Transport wind..SW 32  SW 30  SW 28  SW 26  SW 26  SW 26
Mix hgt (ft)....300    100    700    1900   2500   1800
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...Ritzman
Requested by...Steve Sanville
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717523.0/MQT



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