Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FNUS71 KRLX 081323
FWSRLX

Spot Forecast for Handley...USFS
National Weather Service Charleston WV
823 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on December 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Two interesting things to note this morning with the mixing heights.
First, they should cross the 2kft threshold, and second, we do not
have to wait for daytime heating/boundary layer mixing to get
those heights. They should be available at ignition time. Low cloud
deck will likely give way to thicker cirrus by noon local time, but
this will help keep the max temperatures down today. That said,
dewpoints are low enough that we should get to RH values in the
lower 40s percent range. Low level flows are not particularly
strong and should stay under 10mph, with perhaps a gust or two
slightly higher at the exposed hill top.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 34.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2100-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54  54  54  55  56  54  51  50  48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............25  26  27  30  31  32  33  33  32
RH..............71  68  63  55  51  47  43  43  45
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   2   3   2   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.4   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 21.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......800-2200 ft AGL, decreasing to 100-200 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........45  43  43  44  44  42  38  36  35  34  34  32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............29  28  28  27  26  25  25  24  24  23  22  22
RH..............51  53  55  57  60  62  65  68  68  68  71  68
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   7   7   6   3   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of snow showers early in the afternoon. A
                    chance of snow showers late.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 30 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 34.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL, increasing to 4100-4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 10 mph, increasing to 12 to 20
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  28  33  44  49  58  75  84  86  91  93  90
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............21  22  24  26  29  31  32  32  33  33  33  31
RH..............71  71  65  60  53  49  49  49  49  51  56  63
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5       4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.2   3   6   8   10  12  12  13  15  17  20  18
Haines index....2   2   3   3   4   5   5   5   4   4   3   3

$$
Forecaster...26
Requested by...Mike Ortner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719310.5/RLX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.