Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 281040
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for James River Rx Burn...DCR-VA State 1parks
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on weather information from 0600 EDT on April 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will build off the Southeast Atlantic coast through
the upcoming weekend. This will result in temperatures well above
normal through Sunday. Aside for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
which may pop up at any time during the peak heating part of the day
this weekend, there is little or no rain threat until the arrival of
a cold front Monday.


.TODAY (Friday)...

Sky/weather.........Morning Fog, then sunny (less than 25 percent cloud cover).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 5 mph
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......less than 1000 ft AGL this morning...increasing to 4400
                    ft AGL in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........Increasing to 10 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6...increasing to 42.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  36  25  16  14  14  14  13  11  11  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  63  68  72  75  78  80  81  83  84  84
RH..............100 95  78  68  60  54  49  46  43  40  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..0   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                    5   5   10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..0   1   1   1   2   3   5   6   8   10  12
LVORI...........9   8   4   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.............1   1   3   5   10  15  17  23  32  39  42
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL...decreasing to 300 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Mixing winds........Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................30...decreasing to 5.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.


TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........12     19     33     42     47     41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............83     77     73     71     70     68
RH..............44     57     66     73     77     84
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   400    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind.....S 10   S 6    S 5    S 6    S 7    SW 8
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      4      4
ADI.............30     2      2      4      6      7
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL...increasing to 3500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 15 mph...increasing to 17 to 20
                    mph late.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6...increasing to 45.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     37     22     17     18     21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     10     10     10
Temp............65     68     77     82     86     89
RH..............97     85     70     57     48     44
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    1700   2600   3100   3400
Mixing wind.....SW 7   SW 6   SW 9   SW 13  SW 13  SW 17
LVORI...........8      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............3      4      20     36     41     42
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5

$$
Forecaster...Manuel
Requested by...Al Cire
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707926.0/RNK


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