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000
FNUS72 KTAE 230931
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR CUTOFF ROAD...FWC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
531 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850)942-8835.

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS BUT IS FORECAST TO DROP AT OR JUST BELOW
28 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
BIG BEND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED ERC VALUES AND
SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH WILL POSSIBLY MEET RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED AND MAY BE UPGRADED
TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES FRIDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS AT OR ABOVE
10 MPH AND KBDI VALUES AT OR ABOVE 500. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS OUR GEORGIA ZONES FRIDAY BUT THE 10-HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6 PERCENT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
COUNTIES AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ON TOP OF ALL THIS...DISPERSIONS WILL BE
VERY HIGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
FORECAST VALUES APPROACHING 120 IN SOME AREAS.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) EARLY THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION..........MAX 90.

TIME (EDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........38     39     39     39
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     84     86     88
RH..............66     52     45     41
20 FT WIND......W 3    W 5    W 6    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING...DECREASING TO
                    500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION..........MIN 4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........43     42     42     36     31     31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............88     82     76     72     71     69
RH..............44     59     76     84     80     82
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 5   W 4    W 2    NW 2   NW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     10     10     10

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 17 TO 22
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION..........MAX 110.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........27     22     22     22     21     21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     68     76     82     85     87
RH..............83     82     62     50     41     36
20 FT WIND......NW 2   NW 2   N 4    N 5    N 6    N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     15     15

$$

FORECASTER...TIM BARRY
REQUESTED BY...MORGAN WILBUR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130523.CUTOF.01/TAE