Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 281239
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for PERI Hayfields...NPS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy south winds will prevail through the day with humidity levels
also remaining high and only falling into the mid 60 percent
range during the afternoon.  Mixing heights will remain poor
through the morning.  Isolated thunderstorms are possible
from late morning through the afternoon.  A cold front passes
late tonight bringing additional thunderstorm chances along
with a wind shift.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until late afternoon,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Dewpoint............60.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL increasing to 2100-3100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph increasing to southwest 32
                    to 36 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15200 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).70.

TIME (CST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  89  89  85  81  77  75  72  70  74  77
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Temp............62  65  67  70  72  73  74  74  73  72  71
Dewpoint........60  61  61  61  61  61  61  61  61  60  59
RH..............93  87  81  73  68  66  64  64  66  66  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  11  12  14  15  16  16  15  14  15  15
20 FT wind gust.20  20  25  25  30  30  30  30  25  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  13  15  22  30  36  36  35  32  33  36
VRate kt-ft/1K..15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
1700FT Mix T(F).68  69  70  72  72  73  73  73  73  71  70

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    late evening and early morning. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............56 decreasing to 41.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-2500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 30 to 37 mph becoming northwest 20 to
                    26 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (700-20000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....5.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).73 increasing to 75 in the late evening and
                    early morning, then decreasing to 62 early in
                    the morning.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  79  77  75  74  71  69  68  66  65  51  38
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Temp............69  67  66  64  62  60  59  57  55  52  50  47
Dewpoint........58  58  57  56  54  52  51  49  48  47  44  41
RH..............68  72  74  76  75  74  76  75  78  82  81  80
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  14  14  14  15  15  15  14  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.30  30  25  25  25  30  30  25  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.37  33  30  26  26  26  26  25  23  22  21  20
VRate kt-ft/1K..20  20  20  20  20  20  1   1   1   1   1   1
1700FT Mix T(F).69  72  75  78  79  79  78  77  75  72  66  59

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............36 decreasing to 25.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 6000-6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 28 mph increasing to 25 to 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13600 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).52.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  20  15  10  9   7   6   5   3   2   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  43  43  44  46  49  51  53  55  55  54  53
Dewpoint........38  37  35  33  32  30  29  27  26  25  24  24
RH..............77  78  73  65  58  48  42  36  33  31  30  32
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  12  12  12  12  12  11  9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.6 2.0 2.4 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  21  22  24  28  30  30  29  28  26  25
VRate kt-ft/1K..14  14  14  14  14  14  20  20  20  20  20  20
1700FT Mix T(F).53  51  50  50  50  50  51  53  54  55  54  53

$$
Forecaster...J.MCGAVOCK
Requested by...Nolan Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1703041.0/TSA
.EMAIL nolan_moore@nps.gov



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