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000
FLUS44 KTSA 210133
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
831 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
831 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013


...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ONSET....ONGOING

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
                             ...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
               ARKANSAS
        ONSET...ONGOING .

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND
                                NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SIGNIFICANT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
        AREA...LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
        RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40.



DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER RISKS HAVE SHIFTED EAST...IMPACTING
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
REMAIN ONGOING EVEN THOUGH SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN A TRANSITION
TOWARDS ACCELERATING BOW SEGMENTS. THAT SAID...A HIGH RISK OF
LONG TRACK TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND AND WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH WILL CONTINUE.

A PERIOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SEE /OKCNPWTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT  WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING RISK WITH STORMS THAT DO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE
GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.  2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS MAY BE COMMON. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED 7 INCH AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND
WILL AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$