Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 282329
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2016

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 3 OCTOBER 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SIBERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 74.7N 135W TO 74.9N 158W TO
73N 159.7W TO 71N 149.7W TO NEAR BARROW TO THE ALASKA COAST NEAR
71.1N 157.2W TO 72.3N 167.5W TO 71.5N 168.3W AND CONTINUES IN
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER CONSISTING OF NEW
SEA ICE THAT IS FORMING OVERNIGHT OR DURING PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE REMAINING SEA
ICE PACK WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIODS OF SE WINDS
WILL LIKELY AID IN MOVING THE NEAR SHORE SEA ICE BELT OFF TO THE NW.
IF THAT BELT CAN BE MOVED OVER DEEPER WATERS TO THE N OF POINT
BARROW...THE ODDS ARE MUCH BETTER THAT WE CAN KEEP THE FIRST YEAR
ICE AWAY FROM THE NEAR SHORE NAVIGATIONAL WATERS. GENERALLY SPEAKING
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ISOLATED NARROW BELTS OF SEA ICE BEING STRIPPED
OFF TO THE NE OF POINT BARROW DURING PERIODS OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
NAVIGATIONAL WATERS JUST AROUND THE POINT MAY BE IMPACTED WITH OTHER
AREAS NEAR THE NW COAST SEEING MAINLY OPEN WATER CONDITIONS. THE
OVERALL ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT UP TO 25 NM
GENERALLY TO THE N THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...NEAR THE ICE EDGE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN BECOME EASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS LIKELY
THAT NEWLY FORMED SEA ICE WITHIN THE PACK WILL CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE
ICE EDGE. NEW SEA ICE MAY TEMPORARILY FORM IN OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
FRESHWATER RIVER DELTAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA AS WELL.

$$


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