Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 161809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE FRI AND SAT.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENTLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS
ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED
SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THU. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER THU
HOWEVER. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N87W BY FRI MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
SW N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS MUCH STRONGER
LOW DEVELOPMENT SE OF NEW ORLEANS FRI MORNING WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY
FRI AT 1200 UTC AND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...FROM SW FLORIDA
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND STRENGHT OF THE LOW PRES. THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS
CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NE
GULF. SO...USED A BLEND OF 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 78W PER
THE 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N TO NEAR 73W. LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N73W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
BY THU MORNING...THEN MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM 31N78W
TO 29N81W BY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS
AFTERWARD. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA BY
SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE N WATERS BY SUN.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE
SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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