Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 301808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH LOCATED INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT A LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW
AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS POSSIBLE LOW
PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH 5 DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W CENTRAL
GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W WILL MOVE W OF
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE THE 1502
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 19N W OF 83W.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS
WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY MON. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS
REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS
OF 7-8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY OF SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF
22N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE SE
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE N WATERS...BUT
PARTICULARLY NEAR 27N AND JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. THE LATTER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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