Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 181706
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1206 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails across the forecast area. Latest satellite
derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data
depict gentle to moderate south to southeast winds prevail across
the forecast area. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the
northeast Gulf, 3-4 ft over the southeast Gulf, and 3-5 ft over
the remainder of the Gulf waters.

A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf tonight into
Thursday. The front will extend from southwest Louisiana to
northeast Mexico by early Thursday afternoon, and from southeast
Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by Thursday night. The cold
front is expected to move across the north waters through Friday
while dissipating. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected in association with this front.

A stronger cold front is forecast to push across the Gulf waters
during the upcoming weekend. Currently, model guidance indicates
that the front will enter the northwestern Gulf Saturday night,
reaching from southeast Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by
Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms
will be associated with the front. Strong to gale force winds
are possible behind the front on Sunday, with a large area of
seas building up to 16-18 ft across the Gulf waters behind the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails north of the forecast waters. Latest
satellite derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN
data depict fresh to strong winds across the south central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds over the north central and
eastern Caribbean, moderate winds over the western Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds over the tropical north Atlantic
waters. Seas are in the 8-10 ft over the south central
Caribbean, 4-7 ft over the north central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over
the eastern Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the western Caribbean, and 6-7
ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters. The area of high
pressure will weaken later this week, which will weaken trades
across the Caribbean by the end of the week. During the upcoming
weekend, southeast to south winds are expected to increase
across the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel ahead of a
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This front is
currently forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel and the northwest
Caribbean Sunday night, accompanied by strong winds and building
seas.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters , generally tranquil
conditions are expected over the next several days. Expect
mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft range.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure prevails over the forecast waters.  Latest satellite
derived winds and seas along with ship, buoy, and CMAN data
depict moderate to fresh winds over the northern waters, with
light to gentle winds prevailing over much of the remaining
waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range outside the Bahamas, and 1-2
ft west of the Bahamas.

Winds will begin to increase to 20-25 kt across the north waters
later today ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast
region from the north. The front will move into the northern
waters tonight, extending from 31N63W to 28N70W to 30N77W by
Thursday morning. Minimal gale force winds in the southwesterly
flow ahead of the front will briefly affect forecast zone AMZ115
tonight, with the gale conditions expected to shift east of 65W
by Thursday morning. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kt are
expected behind this front. Seas up to 13-14 ft in NW swell will
build in the wake of the front by Thursday morning. The front
will continue to move SE across the eastern zones on Friday,
reaching the southeast waters by Friday night while weakening.
Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt across the NW part of
the forecast area on Sunday with seas building to 8-9 ft.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster AL. National Hurricane Center.



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