Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 041847
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS AND MWW3 WITH FEW MINOR MANUAL
EDITS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 2...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N94W.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
86W-90W. A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED AT 27N87W. LATEST BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT
FOR SW-W WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 28N. THE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR 3-4 FT SEAS S OF 24N
W OF 92W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL WATERS. A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH SE TO THE HE FL STRAITS...AND A RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE TO
OVER THE FAR SW FL COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE MS DELTA
ON TUE AND INTO WED.. EXPECT LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN ABOUT
300 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
TO 10- 15 KT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF
WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94-95W DURING
THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E 15-20
KT WIND SHIFT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT ONLY 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL
EVENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS AND MWW3. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NOCTURNAL TRADES WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND
ALSO ALONG THE FAR NW COAST OF VENEZUELA. NE-E SWELLS WILL
GENERATE COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT AS FAR W AS 13N78W ON SAT...
THEN COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM SUN-WED.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC SURFACE MAP OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W/64W BASED ON SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE
AND ON WIND/PRESSURE DATA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES REPORTING
SITES AND ALSO FROM DATA FROM BUOY 42060 AT 16N63W. THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS 55W THIS AFTERNOON...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT
NIGHT...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB NWPS AND MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 24N. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
30N77W WITH A TROUGH SW TO INLAND THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL
ASCAT DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH DIRECTION
SE-S S OF OF THE RIDGE AND SW-W N OF THE RIDGE. THE SEAS ARE IN
THE 1-3 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
ONES. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY ON SAT
ALLOWING FOR THE 1012 MB LOW TO DROP SEWD TO NEAR 29N73W. THE LOW
WILL THEN BE NUDGED NORTHWARD SUN AND MON AS A HIGH CENTER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH MON AND TUE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
BRIEF INSTANCES OF E 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FALL
PATTERN SETS UP N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND SENDING A COLD
FRONT SEWD CLIPPING THE FAR NE WATER WELL TO THE E OF THE
FORECAST ZONES ON SUN AND MON WITH A TRAILING TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 115  ONLY A 5-10 KT WIND
SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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