Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 270828
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
328 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY
ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AS FRONT HAS SWEPT ACROSS
STRAITS AND GULF OF HONDURAS AND 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER E
MEXICO RIDGES NE INTO BIG BEND REGION. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED
20 KT OF NLY FLOW STREAMING THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL..WHILE N OF
THE RIDGE...WLY WINDS 20-25 KT PREVAILED FROM SE LA EWD TO
OFFSHORE OF MOBILE BAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WRN PANHANDLE
WATERS ATTM. SEAS ARE LIKELY 6-9 FT SE PORTIONS WITH POSSIBLE MAX
TO 10 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL. BENIGN SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SWEEP SE ACROSS N PORTIONS TODAY WITH REINFORCING HIGH BEHIND IT
TO RESTRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WHILE E HALF
BRIEFLY LIGHTS UP 20 TO NEAR 25 KT TONIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS E
ACROSS GULF COASTS STATES. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 25
KT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL UNTIL FRI NIGHT. HIGH TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE AND INTO ATLC SAT NIGHT WITH RIDGING SW
INTO GULF MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
SUN NIGHT...BEFORE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MOST OF BASIN THROUGH FIRST
PART OF WEEK. AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO ATLC SAT EVENING-NIGHT...PRES
GRADIENT DIRECTLY TO THE S WILL FRESHEN WINDS THROUGH STRAITS AND
ACROSS SE PORTIONS SUN THROUGH MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN
STRAITS DURING THIS TIME.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL CUBA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DRIVING ALL THE WAY TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL HONDURAS PER RECENT ASCAT
PASSES. IN FACT...03Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED SEVERAL VECTORS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS FUNNELING BETWEEN ROATAN AND UTILA IN THE BAY ISLANDS
AND AM ISSUING GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA ASAP. GFS PARALLEL HAS
BEEN HINTING AT SMALL ISOLATED SPOTS TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS
GRADIENT NW OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL LEAVE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SEAS TO BUILD
10-14 FT PER MODEL OUTPUT AND SOME MANUAL EDITING ACROSS THIS
AREA. GALES MAY DIMINISH THIS MORNING 6-9 HOURS BEFORE THIS
SECONDARY PUSH BUT LACK OF OBS DOES NOT GIVE ME CONFIDENCE TO
HOIST GALE UP AND DOWN TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI. WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
HOWEVER WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA INTO SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO REVERSE THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE UNITED STATES SHIFTS E INTO THE ATLC...
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN....WITH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AREA LEE OF
CUBA TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN AND MON. THE GFS HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX WINDS TO GALE OFF COLOMBIA BY EARLY MON
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS DIRECTLY N OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY 30 KT IN
THE UKMET AND ECMWF. HOWEVER...00Z RUN OF OPERATIONAL GFS NOW
SHOWING ONLY 30 KT AND ONLY NEW PARALLEL RUN OF GFS INDICATING
BRIEF GALES EARLY MON...AND WILL HOLD WINDS THERE NEAR 30 KT ATTM.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E AND SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...NOW
EXTENDING FROM 31N71.5W TO NEAR MUCC IN CENTRAL CUBA. NWLY FLOW
BEHIND FRONT WAS STRONG N OF 29N EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT OBS AND
RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW WINDS GENERALLY 15-2- KT BEHIND
FRONT...EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF EXTREME S FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
STRAITS WHERE NLY WINDS AREA 20-25 KT. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE IS
RETREATING TO THE NE AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...LLVL REFLECTION OF
TUTT LOW NEAR 22.5N49W IS DIRECTLY S OF ATLC HIGH AND PRODUCING AN
AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS THERE 50-52W WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF 20-25
KT STRETCHED E TO W ACROSS THIS AREA. EARLY EVENING ALTIMETER PASS
SHOWED SEAS 10-12 FT IN THE AREA JUST E OF THERE...AND MAX SEAS
JUST DOWNSTREAM LIKELY 13-14 FT. THIS SWELL TO MOVE W ACROSS SE
WATERS FRI AND INTO BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM 31N67W
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY 00Z FRI...WHILE A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND INTO THE
ATLC TOMORROW...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT FRI.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE
WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT TONIGHT. THE FRONTS WILL MERGE SE OF BERMUDA
FRI...REACHING FROM 26N65W TO SE CUBA...THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO
SE CUBA BY EARLY SAT. RIDGING BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD
OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MAINTAIN A BAND OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL SUN
INTO MON. GFS STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THUS TO THE W OF EUROPEAN
MODELS...WHILE GEFS VERY CLOSE TO EURO MODELS AND HAVE USED GEFS
FRONTAL POSITIONS FROM 48 HR AND BEYOND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS...
     GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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