Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 260757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO
BORDER. A MODERATE NE-SW PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS
PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS UP TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS. TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN ACCENTUATION OF WINDS TO
STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES DAILY OVER THE YUCATAN. THE
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE QUIESCENT CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
WINDS UP TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AN 0246Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS MEASURED E WINDS UP
TO 25 KT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO FRESH BREEZE OR WEAKER BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH MONDAY.

SHIP WDC7379 REPORTED 11 FT SEAS AT 06Z AND A TOPEX PASS SHOWED
VALUES UP TO 12 FT IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WERE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE WINDS RELAXING...
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD DROP BELOW 8 FT BY
TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING WITH WAVE AXIS NEAR
65W. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES WITH THIS
WEAK FEATURE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH
GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH3 FOR WAVES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NNE-SSW THROUGH THE LOW. THE 0108Z AND 0156Z ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS AROUND 25 KT WERE
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THESE WINDS WERE
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ANY MODEL ANTICIPATED...SO THE WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD AT THE INITIAL TIME AS WELL AS IN THE
NEXT DAY. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
WERE ALSO SUGGESTIVE THAT THE LOW DID HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS HAD PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NOW FOR
ABOUT 15 HOURS...WHICH IS AIDED BY THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
INDUCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUPPORTIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED LAST NIGHT AT 2340Z INDICATED A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GENESIS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED CURRENTLY...PEAK WINDS NEAR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE INDICATED TO REMAIN
AT STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 8 FEET
TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE
TRADEWINDS WILL REMAIN AS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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