Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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064
AGXX40 KNHC 240748
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE ATLC
CONTINUING TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS WHILE
AT THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE GULF. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT NOTED OVER THE ERN
GULF IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT THERE IS
AGAIN ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO EXIST
OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF WATERS.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE ELY
WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PART OF BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS ARE OF MODERATE INTENSITY FROM
THE NE-E IN DIRECTION. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH INTERMITTENT WEAK 1018-1019 MB HIGH CELLS FORMING ON THE
RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W. THE NRN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH TUE. SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE.
OTHERWISE...A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD
ATTENDANT BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF SEAS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND TAFB
NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
LOWER PRES IN NRN PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING GULF OF VENEZUELA. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE MON NIGHT THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES OVER THE
WRN ATLC SHIFTS S. PRESENT SEAS OF 8 FT IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT WED...WITH THE GENERAL AREA
EXPANDING TO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON THU. A NARROW SWATH
OF STRONG E WINDS JUST S AND SE OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE THROUGH
WED. THESE WINDS THEN MERGE WITH THE EXPANDING AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES IN THE E ATLC
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON EVENING
...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON TUE AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND
TO JUST N OF N CENTRAL CUBA...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRES IS PRESENT
ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LOW HAS DROPPED S TO NEAR 26N79W. PLENTY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FL.
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF
ZONE AMZ115 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THOSE WATERS.

LATEST SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS REVEALS A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT
THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE N CENTRAL  PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT
MAINLY S-SW IN DIRECTION. BOTH BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 0-1 FT SW OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 80W. A SMALL POCKET OF SEAS IN
THE 4-5 FT RANGE ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA.
THE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
THE S OF ABOUT 25N BEGINNING ON MON AS AN E SWELL BECOMES RATHER
PERSISTENT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS S FL TODAY...AND TO THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MON. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REPLACE THE LOW OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG A PSN FROM
29N69W NW TO NE FL BY TUE NIGHT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 29N69W LATE ON MON. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
SSE THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT BRUSHES THE
FAR NE WATERS. THE FLOW PATTERN S OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME E-SE
WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE
STRONGER PULSING E WINDS TO THE STRONG CATEGORY BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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