Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGXX40 KNHC 020757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT TUE JUN 02 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED EVEN BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS AND
00 UTC MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AT 28N94W.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO 25N96W...WHILE
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS JUST INLAND THE NW GULF COAST FROM SW
LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A TROUGH IS ALSO JUST INLAND W
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY
...AND CMAN DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NE-E WINDS NEAR AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING NE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

SEAS REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 2-3 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL MAITAIN
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS WILL BE THE INCREASED LEVELS OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ALREADY SEEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO
THE UPPER SW FLOW PATTERN E OF A SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF COMBINING
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL HELP SET UP BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING
THAT WILL STRETCH NEWD ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE FAR SE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRI ADDING TO THE PRESENT INSTABILITY OVER THOSE WATERS.
AS A RESULT...POCKETS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS...SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO REPLACE THE
TROUGHINESS ON SAT...BUT WEAK TROUGHINESS MAY STILL LINGER NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THAT TIME AS HINTED IN THE MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS WITH
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY ALONG 84W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO
JUST NW OF HAITI.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY
...CMAN OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM 0242 UTC DEPICT
MODERATE NE-E WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-78W WITH A PATCH OF
FRESH NE-E WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP
OBSERVATIONS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOW MODERATE NE-E WINDS
OVER JUST ABOUT THAT ENTIRE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE S
OF 18N E OF 82W...EXCEPT FOR A HIGHER SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 68W-80W...AND LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT W OF
82W...AND IN THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE
6-8 FT SEAS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 5-6 FT AS THE
CULPRIT NE SWELLS HAVE DISSIPATED.

AS EVIDENCED IN THE 0220 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
TIGHTENED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SEA S OF 14N. THIS IS IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...AND CENTRAL ATLC
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE AREA OF FRESH NE-E WINDS S
OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-75W IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WED...THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN BUT MOSTLY OVER ZONE 33 THU THROUGH SAT WHERE THE GRADIENT
DUE TO ATLC HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
STAYS TIGHT. THE 7-9 FT SEAS UNDER THE FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL
PEAK TO 10 FT THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND
TO 6-8 FT WED THROUGH SAT...BUT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW PART OF
ZONE 33.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING WATER VAPOR SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMBINATION OF A SHARP MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE AND ADDITIONAL
ADVECTING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS SET UP THE
PRESENT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY A BROAD TROUGH THAT SETS UP THERE LATER
TODAY...AND STRETCHES NEWD ACROSS NW CUBA THROUGH AT LEAST FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH THU...EXCEPT ADDED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF TO
THE BLEND FOR WESTERN HALF OF BASIN FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR
WAVEHEIGHTS USED A BLEND OF TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH
THE 00 UTC MWW3 INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE N OF 27N W OF 70W FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
PERIODS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N68W SW TO NW HAITI. THE
PRELIMINARY 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES
PATTERN OVER THE BASIN.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...
BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENERALLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN AS ALSO REVEALED IN THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS. LATEST
SEA STATE REPORTS FROM BUOYS...A FEW SHIPS AND ALTIMETER PASSES
REVEAL SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3
FT W OF 72W.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS MOTION THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE GENTLE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING
WITH RATHER LOW SEA STATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO WAVE HEIGHTS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE E WINDS WILL AT TIMES MATERIALIZE
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE JUST
MUCH OF THE TROUGHINESS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL EXTEND
INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AND IF A LOW
PRES FEATURE EVOLVES FROM IT AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SUCH A LOW
FEATURE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME...RIGHT NOW INDICATIONS ARE THAT IF
IT FORMS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT HIGH
SPEEDS. THE SAME WITH INDUCED SEA STATE. THE GFS MODEL WHICH HAS
BEEN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SUCH A LOW FEATURE FORMING NEAR THE
BAHAMAS HAS TONED DOWN THIS SCENARIO SUBSTANTIALLY OVER AS NOTED
IN ITS OUTPUT OVER RECENT RUNS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSURES
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASING
SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO SAT...BUT SHIFTING NEWD AT THAT TIME. WILL UPDATE
THE NDFD TAFB GRIDS ACCORDINGLY PER UPDATED GUIDANCE FROM THE
MODELS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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