Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXAK02 KWNH 031703
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JUL 07 2015 - 12Z SAT JUL 11 2015


THE 00Z/03 ECMWF WAS WELL CORRELATED WITH BOTH THE ECENS AND NAEFS
MEANS ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. AS SUCH, IT
SHOULD SERVE AS A REASONABLE TEMPLATE FOR THE PRESSURES AND WINDS
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE 06Z/03 GFS WAS LARGELY IN HARMONY WITH
THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT IT DIFFERED ENOUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD--BOTH WITH ITS YUKON COLD POOL AND ITS VIGOROUS DATE
LINE STORM--TO CAST DOUBT ON ITS BENEFIT IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE
00Z/03 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS HAD SUBTLE DIFFERENCES, BUT SUCH
DIFFERENCES CAN BE A BOON WHEN BLENDING FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS
AS A BUILT-IN PROBABILISTIC ACCOUNTING. THE POLAR JET APPEARS TO
MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST OF 150W BY NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE.


CISCO

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