Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 091352
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VI FROM FEBRUARY
08/12 UTC: UPPER RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA AND DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SE FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS/SE CUBA/SE BAHAMAS. TO THE NORTHWEST BROAD POLAR TROUGH
PATTERN DOMINATES THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THIS POLAR TROUGH
PATTERN SUSTAINS A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SE BAHAMAS INTO EXTREME SE CUBA-CAYMAN ISLANDS-GULF OF
HONDURAS. A SHEAR LINE MEANDERS FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA SW INTO
JAMAICA AND COSTA RICA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE VI.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MID-WEEK. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL INTERACT
WITH TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE EASTERN USA ON FRIDAY TO PRODUCE AN
ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN SETTING UP LATE ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SHEAR LINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SUGGESTING
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK WAVE IN THE TRADES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INTERACTION WILL START DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS TROUGH IN THE
TRADES CROSSES THE ISLANDS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INSTABILITY
AND LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE PERTURBATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGEST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF PUERTO RICO. THEY DO DIFFER
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF ESE TRADES...EXPECTING
LARGEST AMOUNTS IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WE LEAN
TOWARDS A CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION...WITH AMOUNTS IN THE 05-10MM/DAY
RANGE AND ISOLATED MAXIMA NEAR 25MM.

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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