Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 011530
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014


THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS--06Z/01 GEFS, 00Z/01 ECENS, 00Z/01
CMC--ARE PAINTING THE SAME PICTURE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THE DEEP TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOSES AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY DAY 7 AS NEW JET ENERGY SURGES INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS COMPRISED OF BOTH POLAR AND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES--ALWAYS A DICEY COMBINATION FOR DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
DURING THE AUTUMN. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE DIVERGENT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CORRELATE WELL. AS IT STANDS,
THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE SHUT OFF BY THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHUT OFF BY THE DOMINANT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.


CISCO

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