Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 291544
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 12Z WED APR 01 2015 - 12Z SUN APR 05 2015


THE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE HAS BEEN
LEADING THE MODELS A MERRY CHASE OF LATE, WITH WILDLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY NOTED IN THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS INFORMED BY THE 12Z/28 ECENS MEAN AND
THE 00Z/29 NAEFS MEAN IN AN ATTEMPT TO SOFT PEDAL TRENDS IN WPC
CONTINUITY. HOW MUCH SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST DAYS 5 AND 6 DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HEIGHT
FALL IS REALIZED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SUBSTANTIAL, EARLY
HEIGHT FALL--AS PER THE MSC MEAN--WOULD SUPPORT A DEEPER LOW,
FARTHER SOUTH. HEIGHT RISE OVER THE MARITIMES--AS PER THE 00Z/29
EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE--WOULD SUPPORT NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE
AND A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NARY A WAVE THROUGH THE EAST.
THE CURRENT WPC ISSUANCE IS BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES. A
COLD LOW IS STILL ON TAP TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY DAY 6, BRINGING COOLER, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THERE.


CISCO

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