Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 280626
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 01 2016 - 12Z WED OCT 05 2016

THE 27/12Z FORECAST CYCLE GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE WITH EVERY
ASPECT OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...AND A 45/30/25 RATIO OF THE
ECENS/GEFS AND NAEFS SHOULD EVEN OUT THE FASTER AND SLOWER PIECES
OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WEST OF 100W...THIS BLEND SHOULD ALLOW
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO CONTINUALLY INCORPORATE COOLER PACIFIC
FLOW AND MIGRATE ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY-MOVING TRAJECTORY OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN.

DOWNSTREAM...THE SLOWER SOLUTION ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE
MIGRATORY RIDGE SERVING THREE PURPOSES --- (1) SPREADING A MILDER
AND LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNWIND INTO CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LOWER 48, (2) DIRECTING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD
NORTHERN DIVIDE AND FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS (UPPER STRETCH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY), AND (3) DISLODGING A MID-LEVEL
QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AWAY FROM THE
MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO REGION OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS PACIFIC TROUGH (AND 500MB TEMPS NEAR/AROUND M26C) --- OFFER
AN `AUTUMN` FEEL TO THE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL PATTERN. A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF THE ABRUPT CHANGES ANTICIPATED ---REDDING AND BLUE
CANYON CALIFORNIA. GFSX-BASED MOS TAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
FROM 96F TO 65F FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY (DAY 5-6). BLUE CANYON`S
HIGH TODAY 77F AND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY (DAY 5-6) ONLY 48F. BY
WEDNESDAY...THESE COOLER READINGS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE AND UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST PERIOD --- ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA OF INTEREST. THOUGH
THIS REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WEST-TO-EAST MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MOVING SURFACE HIGH
--- THE STRENGTH AND STABILITY OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE
TESTED BY AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER --- CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE DETAILS CONCERNING THIS LATE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FEATURE.

VOJTESAK

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