Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 00Z MON SEP 22 2014 - 00Z MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY NW OF HAWAII NEAR THE DATELINE TO MOVE
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ALONG 30N THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND WILL
DROP OFF BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES (WHICH ARE JUST UNDER 1.50
INCHES) TO ABOUT 1.20 INCHES THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTER ABOUT MIDWEEK,
THE UPPER/SURFACE HIGH NEAR 165W AND APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE
NORTH AND INTO THE ISLANDS SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE POOLING AND
ENHANCED SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE STATE THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER THAN
AVERAGE PRESSURE GRADIENT, TRADES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE.

SCHICHTEL

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