Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 301230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 00Z WED AUG 31 2016 - 00Z WED SEP 07 2016

...HURRICANE MADELINE TO CROSS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

...HURRICANE LESTER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO NEAR THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS BY SATURDAY...


WHAT IS CURRENTLY A MAJOR HURRICANE, MADELINE IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT JUST UNDER 10 MILES PER HOUR. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER (CPHC) HAS THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT
WILL STILL BE A STRONG CATEGORY 1/WEAK CATEGORY 2 SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BIG ISLAND. GIVEN THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR
NORTH OF THIS PATH WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY THE BIG ISLAND. AS THIS REGION HAS ABUNDANT
TOPOGRAPHY, EXPECT IMPRESSIVE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES AIDING IN PROLIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK, THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE MOST IN
LINE WITH THIS THINKING, ALBEIT A HAIR SOUTH. OF COURSE ANY NORTH
OR SOUTH SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD MOVE THE AREA OF HIGHEST
IMPACTS. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST AND EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, PLEASE GO TO THE CPHC AND HAWAI`I WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE WEBPAGES.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL
CYCLONES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE 594-DM MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-LATITUDES. LESTER, WHICH IS ALSO A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THIS
TIME, SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEARS THE NORTHERN HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS BY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) FORECAST SHOWS A
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT SO MANY
SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST TRACK
SUGGESTS IT MAY GRAZE THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AS A WEAK CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE OR STRONG TROPICAL STORM, BUT THIS IS STILL AT LEAST 4
DAYS AWAY. PLEASE VIEW THE NHC WEBPAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM.


RUBIN-OSTER

$$




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