Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 260644
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VALID JUL 26/0000 UTC THRU JUL 29/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...FINAL 00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM/GFS DID NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.

...ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW DROPPING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...
...WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

00Z TREND IN THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN
GLOBAL AND NOW THE ECMWF...ARE TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
LOW AS IT DIPS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SUN.  THEN AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE...THE
TREND IS FOR MAINTAINING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MON.  AT THE SURFACE...THE TREND
IS TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY LOW TRACK WITH PRIMARY LOW AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUE ON MON.

...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NORTHERN CA BY SUNDAY...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS NOTED...A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS
SUGGESTED.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

PEREIRA

$$




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