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FXUS06 KWBC 231916
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2016

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA WITH A TROUGH TO
THE WEST. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A
RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE U.S. SOUTHEAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF THE NCEP GEFS, ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
ALASKA, CANADA, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER FLORIDA, ACCORDING TO THE
OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST,
WHERE NEAR-NORMAL IS MORE LIKELY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE AND FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, UNDER NEAR OR
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES MOST ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
MORE LIKELY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE LOCATIONS. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS MORE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2016

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN THE MAGNITUDE OF ANOMALIES. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
ALASKA WITH A WEAKER TROUGH TO THE WEST COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WEAKENS IN FORECASTS FOR WEEK
2, WHILE RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE U.S. SOUTHEAST.

ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ALASKA, CANADA, AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER A SMALL
AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ACCORDING TO THE WEEK 2, OFFICIAL
BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES FROM CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON, FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS,
UNDER NEAR OR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF TEXAS AHEAD
OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES MOST ENHANCED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH
AXES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND
THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS OREGON AND WASHINGTON
STATES, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE PREDICTED RIDGE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO A WEAK 500-HPA ANOMALY PATTERN, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS
AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620520 - 19880504 - 19800603 - 20080526 - 19890515


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620522 - 20080526 - 19800603 - 19880504 - 19890513


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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