Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXSA20 KWBC 021323
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM OCTOBER 02 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM RONDONIA/MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL...ALONG A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 15S
50W...TO 30S 20W. THE RIDGE UNDERCUTS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AS
IT EXTENDS ALONG 05S 30W... NORTHERN COAST OF BRASIL TO PARA. THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
BOLIVIA-MATO GROSSO/MATO GROSSO DO SUL...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARA-AMAZONAS TO THE WEST.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
41S 123W...THEN ALONG A 198KT MAXIMUM AT 51S 112W...A 140KT
MAXIMUM AT 60S 97W...EXITING AT 62S 81W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS
ITS ENTRANCE AT 33S 127W...ALONG A 163KT MAXIMUM AT 39S 118W...50S
107W...54S 86W...43S 85W...28S 93W...26S 87W...A 128KT MAXIMUM AT
32S 79W...39S 67W...A 150KT MAXIMUM AT 37S 54W...35S 37W...A 143KT
MAXIMUM AT 41S 30W...AND 42S 10W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 20S 89W...ALONG 30S 74W...34S 61W...A 141KT MAXIMUM AT
32S 45W...31S 34W...37S 23W...EXITING AT 34S 10W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PACIFIC...ORIGINATING ON A HIGH NEAR 19S 108W...ALONG 40S
100W...50S 90W...TO THE DRAKE PASSAGE. A TROUGH LIES TO THE
EAST...EXTENDING BETWEEN 100W-75W...AND CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW
NEAR 33S 87W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON A CLOSED
LOW AT 48S 82W. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS ARGENTINA ALONG 65W TO TIERRA DEL FUEGO/DRAKE
PASSAGE. THIS...IN-TURN...IS INDUCING THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION
OF A TROUGH ALONG 45W TO 25S.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM OFF THE COAST OF CHILE...ANCHORING ON AN OCCLUDED
1002 HPA LOW AT 32S 87W...WITH A POLAR FRONT ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW
AT 36S 91W...38S 84W...A 1014 HPA LOW AT 35S 79W...A 1014 HPA LOW
AT 30S 78W...23S 81W...AND 17S 88W. A BROAD RIDGE TO THE EAST
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF ARGENTINA...CENTERING A 1029 HPA HIGH AT
41S 59W. THIS IS STEERING POLAR FRONTS NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WITH ONE THAT EXTENDS ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 37S
42W...RIO GRANDE DO SUL/NORTHERN URUGUAY TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA.
ANOTHER TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 994 HPA LOW AT 35S
32W...ALONG A 1000 HPA LOW AT 36S 30W...33S 32W...A 1008 HPA LOW
AT 31S 35W...26S 36W... SOUTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO... SOUTHERN
MINAS-MATO GROSSO DO SUL TO CHACO PARAGUAYO. SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION WAS BUILDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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