Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 270804
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 27 2015 - 12Z THU JAN 29 2015

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...

...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S...


AN ONGOING WINTER STORM IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY
UP TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE CURRENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HAZARDS SHOW WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT OVER THE AFFECTED
AREA WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WHILE
THE EXACT IMPACTS VARY BASED ON LOCATION, THE OVERALL EFFECT
CONSISTS OF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. IN PARTICULAR, LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND
LONG ISLAND UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BE MEASURING THE SNOW
IN FEET. OBSERVED MESOSCALE BANDS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR ACROSS SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALLER-SCALE SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 FEET FROM EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE MAINE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST GIVEN WIND GUSTS REACHING THE 40 TO
70 MILE PER HOUR RANGE AT TIMES. AS A WHOLE, THIS STORM SHOULD
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE WARMTH TO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUGGEST READINGS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON TUESDAY, THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN BROKEN ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK WITH WILL ROGERS
AIRPORT IN OKLAHOMA CITY REPORTING 77 DEGREES ON MONDAY RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 71 DEGREES. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RECORDS TO
BE BROKEN GIVEN SUCH WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN PLACE.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
HAS EVOLVED INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS SPREAD A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH IS WELL NEEDED GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, EXPECT THIS
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST SPREADING
RAINFALL INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE REGION AS RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WYOMING TETONS AND SECTIONS OF WASATCH.

ELSEWHERE, AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL SPREAD A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FOLLOWING DAY.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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