Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 231954
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015 - 00Z TUE MAY 26 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY. FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLANS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE WARM, MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY, SPREADING INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY MONDAY. FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HEAVY RAIN MAY FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS, AND ALSO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE
SUNDAY, AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. BY
MONDAY, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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