Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 202037
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
436 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 00Z THU AUG 21 2014 - 00Z SAT AUG 23 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST...

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST...

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. A
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP -- GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD
TO THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AND NEAR OR
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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