Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 020742
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 12Z THU JUL 02 2015 - 12Z SAT JUL 04 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RELATIVELY WEAK WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, RESPONSES TO UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES, WILL TRAVERSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE AREAS
OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLANS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ON FRIDAY, THE AXIS OF
BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, MORE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

FARTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD.

FINALLY, ACROSS THE WEST, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT FOR MANY DAYS WILL FURTHER PERSIST. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY -- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN
RECENT DAYS, SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE SIERRAS EASTWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY IN AREAS OF TERRAIN.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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