Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
FXUS21 KWNC 011824
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 01 2014

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AND OFF THE EAST COAST. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE ALEUTIANS.

HAZARDS

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
GREAT LAKES, SAT-SUN, OCT 4-5.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, SAT, OCT 4.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA, SAT, OCT 4.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 04 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 08: STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN (IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD) FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT.



AN AREA OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE BEFORE THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD BEGINS.  BECAUSE THIS
AREA HAS SEEN ALMOST 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS, THE THREAT OF MUDSLIDES
EXIST.



UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR THE WEST COAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS SETUP FAVORS STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY, WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE MID 90`S, WHICH IS MORE THAN 12
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND DRY SOILS, NO ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRES IS INDICATED DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THESE ANTICIPATED DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 09 - WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15: A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF HAZARD AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME.



THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON SEPTEMBER 23, INDICATES THAT THE PERCENTAGE
OF THE CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT DECREASED TO BELOW 19 PERCENT.

FORECASTER: KENNETH PELMAN

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.