Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 021821
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 02 2015

SYNOPSIS: A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE
PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING THE 3-7
DAY PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS NEXT MONDAY TO TUESDAY.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF UTAH AND ARIZONA, FRI-SAT, JUN 5-6.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, SAT-TUE, JUN 6-9.

HIGH WINDS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON,
FRI, JUN 5.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WED-SAT, JUN 10-13.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY JUNE 05 - TUESDAY JUNE 09: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, CALIFORNIA, AND FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLOW,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF UTAH AND ARIZONA, FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AREA TO RECEIVE UP
TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER OF RAINFALL IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN ARROYOS AND
LOW-LYING AREAS BETWEEN CANYON WALLS.



AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY TO TUESDAY. DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH
16 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL OR GREATER, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S (DEG F).



SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN MAY BRING HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON ON FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30 KNOTS OR GREATER. WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE WINDS
BEING NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST.



THERE ARE NUMEROUS AREAS OF ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED IN
RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST, DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE
STATUS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE U.S., PLEASE CONSULT THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER (RFC) HOMEPAGE AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.

FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 10 - TUESDAY JUNE 16: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE END OF
THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD, TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY, JUNE 10-13.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MAY 28TH, INDICATES A DECREASE
(FROM 15.16 TO 14.20) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D2-D4). THIS REPRESENTS THE SMALLEST AREAL COVERAGE OF D2-D4 SINCE
MARCH 2011.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$



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