Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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FXUS02 KWNH 280712
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS
OF THE FORECAST AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST AND POTENTIALLY GETS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CLEARING THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ATTENTION
WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT UPSTREAM TO AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS.  OUT
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AS THE NEXT ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS POSSIBLY
PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK.


...MODEL EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
EVOLUTION OF FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
EXITING THE CAROLINAS...THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT PROGRESSING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEIGHT FALLS TO INFRINGE UPON THE WESTERN U.S.
LATE NEXT WEEK.

A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A FASTER ECMWF AND SLOWER GFS SEEMED TO BEST
REPRESENT THE MIDDLE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WAS LARGELY BASED ON THE STEADIER ENSEMBLE
MEANS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LARGE RUN-TO-RUN
FLUCTUATIONS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHT FALLS
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN U.S..


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER TEXAS...WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SLOW TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD.  OUT WEST...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
ROCKIES.  IN THE EAST...THE BULK OF ANY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LIFTING AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST OR WITH THE FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING THE NORTHEAST COAST SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER OVER
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.


GERHARDT













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