Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280841
PWSEP3

HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
0900 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 125W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  3  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

20N 130W       34  X   2( 2)  35(37)   9(46)   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  43(54)   1(55)   X(55)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   1(16)
15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  28(45)   2(47)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   1(17)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  24(39)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

25N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


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