Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 011328
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

...VALID 15Z MON SEP 01 2014 - 12Z TUE SEP 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
SLG 10 W GCM 30 SW BVO 20 ENE PNC 40 W PPF 35 ENE CNU
60 NNE JLN 45 N SGF 35 SSW AIZ 35 E SGF 25 N HRO SLG.


MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..WITH THINKING
PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED ALSO.  THE ONGOING CONVECTION PORTIONS OF KS
INTO MO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS..BUT
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LOWERED THE
FF GUIDANCE VALUES A BIT..SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING
CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS IMPACTS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
KS..SOUTHWESTERN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OK AND
NORTHWESTERN AR.  GIVEN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAKER
MID-LEVEL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT...CELL MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOWER THAN TONIGHT`S CELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING RAIN RATES THAT
EXCEED FFG WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD.

TERRY




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