Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260215
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

...VALID 0214Z FRI AUG 26 2016 - 12Z FRI AUG 26 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSW PSN 15 ENE TXK 15 E PBF 40 NNE GLH GWO 15 SE JAN
30 S MLU 10 S LFK 35 S PSN 10 SSW PSN.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 SW MRF 25 W MRF 60 S GDP 20 SSW GDP 15 NNW GDP 50 NE 4CR
25 NW DDC 30 ESE CNK 15 ESE FNB 10 N IRK 15 N PIA 20 SE BMI
20 ESE TAZ 25 SSE SUS 20 SE VIH 15 NW HRO MKO 10 ENE FSI
45 S CDS BPG 50 NNE 6R6 55 S 6R6 105 SSW 6R6 125 S E38.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
EWK 10 WSW IXD 15 E LXT DMO 25 WSW AIZ 20 W SGF 20 S JLN
15 SE SWO CSM 30 WNW CDS 20 E PVW 25 W LBB 60 NNE HOB 30 SSE CVS
40 ESE TCC 20 NE DUX 40 W P28 EWK.


SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE MAIN RAINFALL FOCUS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS PD WILL BE
ALONG SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BNDRY WHERE A POOL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BE LURED WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE
TONIGHT.  A MORE FOCUSED HEAVY QPF AREA DEVELOPING TONIGHT FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND MO IS EXPECTED AS A
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH CO.  THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL
JET IN THE NEAR TERM.  A FAVORABLY SLIGHTLY CURVED UPPER JET
MAXIMUM LIES TO THE NORTH. FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT CELL TRAINING.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-6" RANGE WOULD
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE AREA.


LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES MOVING WEST ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE -- ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING RELIC OF
A FRONTAL ZONE -- HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
COAST.  DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SHRINK IN AREAL EXTENT
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE
COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS.  THE MARGINAL RISK WAS ASSIGNED DUE TO THE
LACK OF ORGANIZATION EXPECTED IN THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME BEFORE
DISSIPATION.

ORRISON/SULLIVAN/ROTH
$$





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