Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 270836
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

...VALID 12Z THU JUL 27 2017 - 12Z FRI JUL 28 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ENE DAB 20 W OCF 25 SSW 40J 20 S DQH 10 NNW NBC 65 SE CHS.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNE MMHO 35 S OLS 40 NNE FHU 55 E IWA 10 N INW 35 N RQE
30 WSW TEX 20 SSE ASE 15 SSW PUM 35 E DEN 50 NNE EHA 50 S DDC
15 N AVK 25 ESE WLD 25 NW JLN 25 SW SZL 40 S IRK IJX 15 E DEC
10 E LAF 20 ENE FWA 15 W MFD 30 S HLG 15 S W99 30 N LYH
20 WSW MWK 20 NE AVL 1A5 45 NW CHA 25 W 1M4 35 SSE SGT
10 WSW RUE 15 NW RKR CHK 30 S PPA 45 W AMA 50 WSW CVS 45 WSW ATS
20 SW LRU 90 SE DUG 145 SE DUG.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE DGW 15 ENE DRC 30 N TMH 40 NW GCC MLS 25 SW GDV
25 NW BHK 30 WSW 2WX 35 S CUT 35 ENE DGW.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E SPD 15 S EHA 30 NNE DUX 40 WSW DHT 40 WSW TCC 30 ENE SRR
20 SSW SRR 50 WNW SRR 25 SW SAF 30 WSW AEG 25 NNW TCS 30 N SVC
50 SE SOW SOW 35 ESE SJN 25 NW GNT 4SL 25 NNE 4SL 40 WSW E33
20 N DRO 35 E TEX 20 ENE CPW 20 W VTP 20 W AFF 30 SE PUB
30 SE LHX 25 E SPD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE HNB 20 SW AID 30 WSW AOH OSU 25 S ZZV 10 SE W22 15 NE LWB
10 S MKJ 15 WNW TRI 25 NNE LOZ 30 SW EKQ 10 SW BNA 35 NNW MSL
20 NW TUP UTA 30 SSE M19 30 S FLP 20 E FYV 15 ESE GMJ 30 NNW SGF
10 NNE DMO 35 E COU 30 WNW FAM 20 ESE HSB 30 NE HNB.



...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST THIS PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....DRIVING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHILE SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES (2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY ON THU.  THIS MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT  MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS.  ALSO...WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ATTAINING A SIGNIFICANT
WESTERLY TRAJECTORY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT...THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A WEST TO EAST
DIRECTION...FURTHER RAISING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS.  WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...THE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER TOTALS.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS
AND LOWER MO VALLEYS IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
AND TN VALLEYS.  MEANWHILE...FURTHER TO THE EAST THERE IS A MODEL
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPSTREAM WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  POST-FRONTAL EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY MOVING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
FROM EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO...NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE REGION.  FURTHER WEST...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG A LOW LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INTERACTING WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXTEND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WITH REMNANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE.  THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AFFORDED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MT AND EASTERN WY.

...SOUTHEAST COAST...

MODELS SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POOL OF
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE GA/NORTHERN FL COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED RUNOFF CONCERNS.

PEREIRA
$$




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