Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 11/1200 UTC THRU JUL 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

...LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC...

1.75-2" PRECIPITABLE WATER(PW) VALUES WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE E/SE PROGRESS DURING DAY 1...IN
FACT WILL MORE LIKELY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND WEAKEN AS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER TROUGH AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WESTERLIES LIFT
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (DIVERGENCE) WILL REMAIN
RATHER DIFFUSE...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE TAIL END OF
THE FLATTENING UPPER TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED WEAK LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BNDRY (ENHANCED DURING THE DAY BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BNDRYS)
WITH THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE (HIGH AFOREMENTIONED
PWS AND MIXED LAYER CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTN/EVENING) WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST (BETWEEN .50 AND 1+ INCHES). LIGHT DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL MAKE FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION (MESOSCALE) GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 3+ INCHES.

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA EN ROUTE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  THE GEFS
MEAN INDICATES AN 850-700 MB WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING.  A PLUME OF GEFS
FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT IN EASTERN SD/NORTHEAST NE TONIGHT
AND PROGRESSES INTO IA TOMORROW.  THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA IN THE MOISTURE POOL SUPPORTS
PRECIP DEVELOPING AND THEN SPREADING EAST TOMORROW INTO IOWA IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA.  MANUAL PROGS USED A MULTI-MODEL/09Z SREF MEAN
CONSENSUS.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON THE
SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER HIGH. THE MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTH CA CHANNELING HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN AZ.  PW ANOMALIES IN THIS PLUME WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.
WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  THE GFS SHOWS A 300 MB
IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NV AND DEAMPLIFYING FRI AS IT
HEADS TOWARDS THE UT BORDER.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE AREAS...WITH
HIGHER ODDS IN THE HIGHEST PW VALUES IN AZ WHERE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING.  THE TREND LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI IS FOR THE PW
VALUES TO DROP AND A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN AZ TO
LESSEN CHANCES FOR A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA TO DEVELOP TO
SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS.  MANUAL QPF USED A MULTI-MODEL/CONTINUITY
CONSENSUS.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE PLUME BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
IS STREAMING ONSHORE IN SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE MODELS ARE FCSTG THE LOW/HIGH TANDEM TO DRIFT WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI.  THIS SHOULD SHUNT THE MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER
WEST AS A RESULT AND FOCUS RAINFALL POTENTIAL FURTHER ONSHORE AND
INLAND FRI.  SHORT TERM THE MODELS HAVE UNDER PREDICTED RAINFALL
IN SOUTH TEXAS SO AMOUNTS FOLLOW CONTINUITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  THIS TAPERS LATER NIGHT AND FRI...RETURNING TO A
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

HURLEY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 542896 542881 542866 540850 538839 528824 525822 521826
      515834 506847 503851 498851 492847 488844 489838 492828
      483809 481807 479809 475818 470825 465831 453845 449855
      445863 433875 422875 413876 404880 398885 394888 392890
      391892 392899 394902 399908 403917 406927 408937 413958
      414965 413974 413989 412995 411999 408009 403016 397021
      390026 385035 380042 376044 371044 369041 367042 360046
      345054 335053 330053 327055 325059 323065 320069 316073
      307071 296070 283061 279063 275061 274055 277050 282044
      291040 297037 304032 316022 315011 313007 309004 305997
      299991 296989 291989 284993 270000 264999 261997 252995
      249992 249986 246982 242979 239976 236973 231965 226058
      272099 275106 279112 284118 291122 299125 303125 306124
      314120 322115 327112 331110 334112 338114 341116 346123
      353128 358131 366129 367122 365117 362116 360114 357111
      355108 359101 367100 378101 383102 386106 386111 383114
      377121 375122 374127 374132 377132 382131 383135 381137
      378145 376148 375154 373157 377159 382155 387155 392154
      394155 394158 394163 392166 392171 396177 400179 402181
      402183 403189 401195 393192 390190 384187 376187 374189
      376192 381197 387205 392210 398215 402219 407221 410223
      411227 408229 406236 408239 412240 421243 427230 437199
      436196 433195 429196 425194 424184 424173 425160 423150
      421147 417145 418141 422136 430123 433119 436117 442114
      452117 454114 456108 458103 459096 460078 460071 464067
 0.01 464067 471062 474060 477057 478027 479012 476002 469981
      465974 463970 464962 465958 469956 476950 491944 504934
      517923 523917 529911 541898 542896
 0.01 496118 496110 495105 495097 495092 492081 488073 484065
      481061 479061 478064 477069 476076 477089 479099 485108
      490114 492117 496118
 0.01 417679 415667 412663 412660 410652 393662 385668 380672
      377677 365694 355710 345727 339737 334746 329754 326759
      323762 316770 310777 294788 291791 288796 284798 277800
      267803 260804 254806 250809 251814 250817 246819 246821
      248823 252826 255828 261828 265826 270829 271832 276832
      282833 284835 282838 281850 282863 284868 284875 281885
      281892 282897 283904 285910 289920 293924 297923 299926
      299930 299937 297942 297948 296953 292958 292962 295966
      297963 298959 300957 301958 303954 305950 308946 318941
      323939 327934 330930 334928 337928 343930 351932 357932
      359928 359922 360918 356907 351896 341891 337889 332888
      328886 324883 322878 321872 321868 323862 355837 365819
      367814 364809 361806 358802 359796 362790 364785 364781
      367780 373772 371768 371763 406692 412685 417679
 0.01 417764 412749 408752 404757 398754 395753 393757 392762
      393773 390780 385786 380789 377794 375797 376799 378804
      380805 383804 385802 390797 391792 396791 410789 413784
      414776 417764
 0.01 404209 402208 402207 401205 399204 398204 396203 394203
      393204 394206 395207 396207 397209 399210 400210 402210
      404209
 0.25 534883 535875 534867 532854 527844 524842 521845 516854
      513864 509874 508879 509887 510892 513897 519896 527891
      533886 534883
 0.25 497896 497888 495883 489874 485865 483859 480853 477851
      475852 473855 472871 471879 469883 463894 458902 453911
      448921 446923 443922 439920 437905 435899 431895 427891
      422888 413885 407886 404889 403895 405902 408914 411925
      414937 416952 418966 418975 418985 416996 413009 404029
      400030 397036 398042 401047 386055 379056 376054 373057
      363059 359061 355065 336072 329079 328083 329087 332092
      334097 337100 341103 343104 344100 346095 348091 357086
      365083 370081 375081 381083 386088 391090 394096 396115
      406119 411111 412103 411097 410091 407085 423077 427078
      431075 435075 438076 443077 447079 450079 451075 452069
      455064 458059 463046 465018 466003 465994 462991 459991
      456995 455002 452007 449010 446010 441007 439002 438984
      440969 446947 450936 457930 464925 468927 474928 479927
      483923 487919 489914 494904 497896
 0.25 453098 453095 450094 448094 446094 443092 442090 438089
      436092 435095 435100 436102 439103 441103 444102 446101
      449101 452100 453098
 0.25 422229 421227 419227 418228 419229 421229 422229
 0.25 382709 381702 377699 371702 367704 361711 355721 333756
      324772 317780 309787 302793 297801 293805 290809 286812
      280813 275814 270813 266810 261810 256811 260813 263818
      264819 268820 275825 280827 284828 294831 300831 304835
      304849 306855 307857 310858 313854 315849 318843 321839
      326831 331822 333817 337814 342805 348797 350786 352780
      355775 360767 375726 379717 382709
 0.25 318097 319091 315086 309083 302082 296080 291077 286075
      278075 274077 272081 273085 278095 284104 294111 296116
      297118 301118 304115 309112 313108 316103 318097
 0.25 310863 306861 302864 299861 297862 295866 294871 293876
      294881 297884 300883 303880 305878 308874 309869 310863
      310863
 0.25 227046 232053 239060 247066 251068 254073 258074 262072
      263065 263062 261060 257058 250057 246055 245048 248043
      252041 259035 266029 270027 277026 287024 291022 295019
      297016 298012 297010 292007 286006 280006 275008 267014
      263017 258018 247020 239024 235027 228027
 0.25 296908 296905 295905 295906 295908 296908
 0.25 231991 233989 234987 235985 235984 235983 233981 231980
 0.50 531875 531870 531865 529857 528853 524853 521858 518863
      515870 513877 513882 514887 519888 524886 528881 531875
 0.50 480907 480904 478901 477899 475900 472902 470904 468905
      466908 464910 463913 465915 469914 472913 474912 477911
      479909 480907
 0.50 456037 455032 455030 454026 452023 449023 447025 445029
      445031 445036 447038 448039 452041 455039 456037
 0.50 432056 431047 427038 424033 423027 426016 429007 432997
      434983 435968 436958 436944 435928 434923 431919 429909
      425901 420893 417890 411890 409893 408900 411911 414921
      417933 422982 420993 417004 414014 414022 412026 406033
      405037 405041 408044 410049 409054 405058 402060 399057
      395057 393061 401074 401065 405061 408063 411066 415065
      418061 421064 424067 428064 431059 432056
 0.50 409108 410105 410103 410101 409100 408098 406100 406102
      406105 405105 405107 405109 405110 407111 408110 409109
      409108
 0.50 382069 382067 380066 379067 378068 378069 378071 380072
      381072 381071 382069
 0.50 370725 369717 366715 363717 357726 344746 338755 335760
      332766 330772 327776 318784 311792 303801 301806 304810
      310812 316811 322808 327811 333811 337808 343799 346794
      348787 350774 352767 356763 359751 365739 368732 370725
 0.50 354082 354080 352079 351079 350080 349081 350083 352083
      354082
 0.50 341096 341093 340092 339091 337093 337095 338096 340097
      341096
 0.50 311092 311089 308087 299085 295085 292081 287078 282077
      279078 277080 277084 280091 285097 289102 297104 301105
      306104 309098 311092
 0.50 298823 298821 294821 291820 289818 286817 283817 279818
      277819 278823 280824 283824 287824 291823 294823 296824
      298823
 0.50 292016 292014 291013 290012 289012 287011 285011 284011
      282011 280012 278013 277015 278017 278018 280018 281019
      283020 285020 287019 289019 289018 291017 292016
 0.50 267814 266813 265813 264812 263813 263815 264816 266816
      267814
 1.00 430957 430952 429949 429945 428941 427938 426935 424932
      422933 422938 422942 423947 423949 423954 424958 426961
      428961 429959 430957
 1.00 426056 426053 425051 423051 422053 422055 423057 425057
      426056
 1.00 344790 345787 345785 343783 342784 340785 339786 338787
      337788 337790 336791 335793 335795 336797 337795 338795
      339795 341794 343793 344792 344791 344790
 1.00 284085 284084 283084 282084 283084 284085 284085

$$




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