Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 041828
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 05/0000 UTC THRU MAR 06/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES...

STILL NO BIG CHANGES TO EARLIER THINKING..WITH A MODERATE RAINFALL
EVENT AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.  AT LEAST MASS FIELD-WISE..THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING BOTH
THE POSITIVE TILT H5 TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST
THIS PERIOD..WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW..EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT..WITH CLEAR
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTIONS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW
LOOPS..WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO THE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS..WITH A
RATHER BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT FARTHER BEHIND THE
FRONT..AND THEN THE LONGER DURATION AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EVEN A BIT FARTHER BACK.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS..THERE ARE SOME QPF
DIFFERENCES..ESPECIALLY THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES..WITH THE
ECMWF HIRES..UKMET HIRES AND NAM BEING ON THE SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER/FARTHER NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE..WHILE THE
GFS..CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL AND THE HIRES ARW AND NMMB5 ARE NOT
QUITE AS HEAVY NOR AS FAR NORTH.  WPC AGAIN CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE
IN-HOUSE ENSEMBLE BIAS CORRECTED QPF TO ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE
QPF DIFFERENCES.  THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FLOODING THREAT INTO
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS..WITH HEAVY SNOWS THE INCREASING THREAT
THEREAFTER.  PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 06/00Z
 0.01 510298 505309 503311 501309 500303 498290 496284 493280
      491275 490268 490262 491255 495252 501251 502245 502238
      504233 508237 515244 519247 522252 525257
 0.01 427635 431640 433647 434655 434662 434669 434677 434686
      433694 430709 427720 427727 424734 424743 425747 427750
      431752 435756 437760 435765 425790 414815 406838 397860
      387885 377907 374913 373919 369934 361958 358971 357978
      355987 352000 351009 349013 349018 348022 347025 346032
      349048 355048 362047 365049 369052 366057 362059 359061
      356060 347059 343059 339058 337063 336073 335075 334080
      331081 325083 322084 318080 317074 320068 320064 319061
      316056 310045 306042 301039 280028 271020 267017 265013
      259003 259001 254969 257924 268892 294851 316815 339772
      351737 368696 375680 381669 387660 391652 393647 398644
 0.01 537215 538208 538202 537194 536190 531181 525174 522172
      518172 517175 520178 522189 523203 525214 526219 526223
      527224 534221 537215
 0.01 467699 465697 463698 455703 450706 447709 446714 446720
      443728 443731 445732 450728 455722 458716 463708 466702
      467699
 0.01 475870 475862 473858 472852 470848 467843 464839 464841
      464849 464856 465863 466868 467876 469878 472875 474871
      475870
 0.01 446860 445858 440858 436861 431861 426860 422860 420863
      422867 424869 430870 435869 440868 441863 445861 446860
 0.01 323093 320092 319090 315089 313090 309091 307093 305094
      303095 302099 305101 308101 310100 313099 316097 318096
      321095 323093
 0.25 522267 519263 517260 513256 510258 507261 505265 502270
      501277 503281 505286 507288 510285 513281 515277 519275
 0.25 421685 420670 419663 416658 412655 408655 405660 402663
      394670 389678 384688 380698 373715 366736 357754 348772
      340790 336800 335805 334812 335819 334825 333831 332838
      328846 322855 300880 295889 298890 301886 304886 307884
      311886 313890 311900 307908 297926 292936 289945 284968
      284974 286979 291980 296980 304981 308980 308982 304985
      291997 288002 287007 290012 294014 300014 304012 311007
      315004 318998 320993 322990 326987 330982 334975 343956
      352938 361919 370901 379880 385861 393839 399819 402807
      405794 409773 413747 417724 420699 421685
 0.50 415693 414685 411675 406677 399682 394687 390695 384708
      380722 375738 373744 369750 361763 358769 356777 351791
      349801 350810 348819 346827 348835 346840 343847 339854
      331866 325879 313905 310912 306920 301935 301942 301952
      303957 306960 309960 314959 319960 322962 326962 336953
      350928 357915 364903 370889 376875 382860 386845 391830
      395813 398796 401779 405764 409746 412730 414713 415702
      415693
 1.00 406722 406713 405710 403708 400711 398716 389739 385748
      382753 377757 371765 369770 367777 365789 364804 364809
      368808 375808 375814 373826 370839 370847 367851 361853
      359859 356868 353879 350893 345907 339923 340928 344925
      349912 359890 365880 370871 374858 376846 379840 381834
      384823 384816 386809 389797 390789 391782 399761 402747
      405735 406728 406722

$$





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