Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 252256
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
FLZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/25/14 2256Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENTRAL FLORIDA...
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ATTN WFOS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO SPENES MESSAGE SENT NEAR 18Z AND WPC MPD ISSUED
AFTER 20Z.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2300-0500Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SINCE LAST MESSAGE, HAVE SEEN PERHAPS JUST A VERY
SUBTLE DECREASE IN BOTH THE OVERALL EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY
AND THE COVERAGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, STILL SEEING ACTUAL HOURLY
OBS OF NEAR AND OVER 1"/HR RAIN TOTALS SCATTERED ACROSS CENT FL WITH
LOCALIZED INSTANTANEOUS RATES LIKELY HIGHER THAN THIS PARTICULARLY NEAR
TAMPA AND CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST AROUND TITUSVILLE. STORM TOTALS FOR THE
PAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF 2" TO NEARLY 4" ARE NOTED IN MESONET, AGAIN WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER EMBEDDED LOCALIZED TOTALS. ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE RAP ARE INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WINDS
BLOWING PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF CONVECTION ACROSS FL ALONG WITH RATHER
SATURATED PROFILES UP TO 600MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.1"-2.2"
WERE RUNNING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
OF NORMAL.
,
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, EXPECT TRAINING FROM SW TO NE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS CENT FL WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY SLOWLY SINKING S TOWARD THE
GREATER INSTABILITY PER MESO-ANALYSIS/GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS. ALSO SEEING
A SURGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY OFFSHORE TO THE NE IN THE ANIMATION OF
THE NEARCAST VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENTIAL PRODUCT WHICH HAS COINCIDED
WITH THE INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ROUGHLY 90-100 MILES TO THE SW OF
TAMPA. THIS OFFSHORE TREND ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND ANALYZED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEING MAXIMIZED IN THE
REGION BOUNDED APPROXIMATELY BY TAMPA-CAPE CANAVERAL-VERO BEACH-PUNTA
GORDA SHOULD ALSO EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THIS REGION DURING THE 6 HOUR OUTLOOK PERIOD. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS AND THE POSITION
OF UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE W AND N CENT GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR ANIMATION,
THE EMPHASIS IS ON THIS BEING A GRADUAL SHIFT. EVEN AS THE HEAVIER MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES MORE TO THE S, A SWATH OF ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY OVERRUNNING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SPOTS WHICH
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4" PLUS AMOUNTS TODAY AND AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING
HEAVY RAINFALL ISSUES. BY THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, BELIEVE THE
FORCING WILL HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH WAVE LIFTING BY TO THE NW AND
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY DECREASING ENOUGH TO BEGIN TO REDUCE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT, THOUGH WILL LIKELY NEED TO REASSESS THE SITUATION IN
CASE ACTIVITY LINGERS A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3000 8127 2947 8021 2818 8020 2713 8117 2632 8253
2660 8380 2783 8400
.
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