Special Weather Statement
Issued by NWS

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000
WWMY80 PGUM 292352
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
950 AM CHST TUE JUN 30 2015

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-010200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
950 AM CHST TUE JUN 30 2015

...CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FOR THE CIRCULATION CENTERED 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 160 DEGREES EAST
LONGITUDE. A SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS FOUND NEAR 9 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE AND 148 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 260 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER CONSENSUS IN TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CIRCULATION WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK MAY DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE FIRST CIRCULATION. THIS SCENARIO
COULD BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MARIANAS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A TROPICAL STORM OR
TYPHOON OVER...OR NEAR...THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE SIMILAR PATTERN...
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE
STORM AS WELL AS THE EXACT TIMING AND PATH THAT IT WILL TAKE.

STAY INFORMED ABOUT THIS SITUATION BY FOLLOWING THE LATEST BULLETINS
ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN21
PGTW...AS WELL AS STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE
AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

W. AYDLETT


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