Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 011221
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0521 MST Sunday, March 1, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, March 1, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 41.8 F/5.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 131 ft/min (0.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7338 ft MSL (2031 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 24.0 F/-4.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6184 ft MSL (877 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 03/02....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 14407 ft MSL (9100 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 03/02.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:32:44 / 17:50:10 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 17 min 26 sec (677 min 26 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:11:42 MST... 42.77 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 03/01/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 14627 ft MSL (9320 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8054 ft MSL (2747 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +19.3
K index......................... +6.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.9 -70.4   265   60   31   1.1   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -55.2 -67.4   260   76   39   1.2   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -55.4 -67.7   260   91   47  -0.2  -0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -55.2 -67.4   260   99   51   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -54.2 -65.6   260  110   57   1.8   1.0      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -53.1 -63.6   255  121   63   1.8   1.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -48.8 -55.8   260  123   63   7.8   4.3      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -43.6 -46.5   260  123   63   7.0   3.8   34.4  93.9    29.0      M    M
 29000  -41.7 -43.1   260  120   62   6.3   3.5   32.9  91.1    28.2      M    M
 28000  -39.8 -39.6   260  116   60   6.3   3.5   31.5  88.7    27.5      M    M
 27000  -37.9 -36.2   260  113   58   6.3   3.5   30.3  86.5    26.9      M    M
 26000  -36.2 -33.2   260  109   56   5.3   2.9   28.7  83.7    26.0      M    M
 25000  -34.6 -30.3   260  103   53   5.3   2.9   26.9  80.5    24.9      M    M
 24000  -33.0 -27.4   260   97   50   5.2   2.9   25.3  77.6    23.9      M    M
 23000  -31.7 -25.1   260   89   46   3.7   2.0   23.4  74.1    22.7      M    M
 22000  -30.6 -23.1   260   80   41   3.7   2.0   21.1  70.0    21.1      M    M
 21000  -29.5 -21.1   260   70   36   3.6   2.0   19.0  66.2    19.5      M    M
 20000  -28.1 -18.6   260   65   33   5.0   2.7   17.1  62.8    18.2      M    M
 19500  -27.4 -17.3   260   63   32   5.0   2.8   16.2  61.2    17.5      M    M
 19000  -26.6 -15.9   260   61   31   5.1   2.8   15.4  59.7    16.9      M    M
 18500  -25.9 -14.6   265   59   30   4.9   2.7   14.6  58.3    16.3      M    M
 18000  -25.0 -13.0   265   56   29   8.4   4.6   14.0  57.3    15.9      M    M
 17500  -23.6 -10.5   260   53   27   9.0   5.0   13.9  57.0    15.9      M    M
 17000  -22.3  -8.1   260   49   25   9.1   5.0   13.8  56.9    15.9      M    M
 16500  -20.9  -5.6   260   47   24   9.0   4.9   13.7  56.6    15.8      M    M
 16000  -18.9  -2.0   260   43   22   8.7   4.8   13.5  56.3    15.8      M    M
 15500  -17.7   0.1   265   42   22   8.5   4.7   13.3  55.9    15.7      M    M
 15000  -16.4   2.5   265   41   21   8.3   4.5   13.1  55.5    15.6      M    M
 14500  -15.2   4.6   270   41   21   7.8   4.3   12.7  54.9    15.3      M    M
 14000  -14.1   6.6   270   42   22   7.8   4.3   12.4  54.4    15.1      M    M
 13500  -12.9   8.8   275   43   22   7.7   4.2   12.1  53.8    14.9      M    M
 13000  -11.8  10.8   275   43   22   7.7   4.2   11.8  53.2    14.7      M    M
 12500  -10.6  12.9   275   42   22   7.7   4.2   11.4  52.5    14.4      M    M
 12000   -9.5  14.9   275   41   21   7.7   4.2   11.1  51.9    14.2      M    M
 11500   -8.5  16.7   275   39   20   6.8   3.7   10.7  51.2    13.9      M    M
 11000   -7.4  18.7   275   37   19   6.6   3.6   10.2  50.4    13.5      M    M
 10500   -6.8  19.8   275   33   17   2.7   1.5    9.3  48.8    12.7      M    M
 10250   -6.6  20.1   275   30   16   3.4   1.9    8.8  47.9    12.2      M    M
 10000   -6.4  20.5   275   28   14   2.0   1.1    8.3  46.9    11.8      M    M
  9750   -6.4  20.5   275   27   14  -1.8  -1.0    7.5  45.6    11.1      M    M
  9500   -6.6  20.1   275   24   12  -3.4  -1.9    6.5  43.7    10.1      M    M
  9250   -6.9  19.6   280   21   11  -2.5  -1.4    5.5  41.9     9.2      M    M
  9000   -7.1  19.2   280   18    9  -4.4  -2.4    4.5  40.2     8.2      M    M
  8750   -7.6  18.3   285   16    8  -7.5  -4.1    3.3  37.9     7.1      M    M
  8500   -8.2  17.2   290   13    7  -8.4  -4.6    1.9  35.4     5.8      M    M
  8250   -8.8  16.2   295   11    6  -8.1  -4.5    0.5  32.9     4.4      M    M
  8000   -9.4  15.1   305    9    5  -7.3  -4.0   -0.9  30.5     3.1      M    M
  7750   -9.9  14.2   320    8    4  -5.9  -3.2   -2.1  28.2     1.9      M    M
  7500  -10.3  13.5   330    8    4  -5.5  -3.0   -3.3  26.1     0.8      M    M
  7250  -10.6  12.9   340    7    4  -2.2  -1.2   -4.4  24.1    -0.3    332  1.7
  7000  -10.6  12.9   350    7    4   0.9   0.5   -5.1  22.7    -1.0    324  1.6
  6750  -10.6  12.9   355    7    4  -0.4  -0.2   -5.9  21.4    -1.7    316  1.6
  6500  -10.5  13.1   360    7    4   2.2   1.2   -6.6  20.1    -2.4    308  1.6
  6250  -10.2  13.6   005    7    3   5.1   2.8   -7.0  19.4    -2.8    291  1.5
  6000   -9.8  14.4   005    6    3   5.7   3.1   -7.3  18.8    -3.2    272  1.4
  5750   -9.5  14.9   005    5    3   4.0   2.2   -7.7  18.2    -3.6    253  1.3
  5500   -9.4  15.1   360    4    2  -2.6  -1.4   -8.3  17.0    -4.2    244  1.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/01/2015 at 0800 MST          |       03/01/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +0.9  LI... +277.1              | K index... -2.3  LI... +279.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.1 -70.8  260  57 29   0.8   0.4 | -57.7 -71.9  260  57 29   0.4   0.2
 45000 -55.9 -68.6  260  78 40   0.9   0.5 | -57.1 -70.8  255  80 41   0.4   0.2
 40000 -56.8 -70.2  260  95 49  -0.6  -0.4 | -56.8 -70.2  255  94 48   0.2   0.1
 38000 -56.5 -69.7  260 102 52   2.7   1.5 | -56.1 -69.0  255 100 52   3.2   1.8
 36000 -54.8 -66.6  255 107 55   2.8   1.5 | -53.9 -65.0  255 111 57   3.2   1.8
 34000 -52.8 -63.0  255 114 59   6.4   3.5 | -51.7 -61.1  255 119 61   6.4   3.5
 32000 -48.4 -55.1  255 112 58   7.3   4.0 | -47.8 -54.0  255 117 60   6.6   3.6
 30000 -44.0 -47.2  260 111 57   7.3   4.0 | -43.8 -46.8  260 114 59   6.4   3.5
 29000 -41.9 -43.4  260 109 56   7.1   3.9 | -42.0 -43.6  260 112 57   6.2   3.4
 28000 -39.8 -39.6  260 107 55   7.1   3.9 | -40.1 -40.2  260 109 56   6.2   3.4
 27000 -37.7 -35.9  260 105 54   7.1   3.9 | -38.2 -36.8  260 107 55   6.2   3.4
 26000 -35.7 -32.3  260 101 52   6.2   3.4 | -36.3 -33.3  260 103 53   6.7   3.6
 25000 -33.9 -29.0  260  97 50   6.2   3.4 | -34.3 -29.7  260  99 51   6.7   3.7
 24000 -32.0 -25.6  260  93 48   6.1   3.4 | -32.3 -26.1  260  96 49   6.7   3.7
 23000 -30.4 -22.7  260  88 45   4.9   2.7 | -30.6 -23.1  260  89 46   5.3   2.9
 22000 -28.9 -20.0  260  82 42   4.9   2.7 | -29.0 -20.2  260  80 41   5.3   2.9
 21000 -27.4 -17.3  260  77 40   4.9   2.7 | -27.4 -17.3  260  71 36   5.3   2.9
 20000 -26.0 -14.8  265  73 37   4.8   2.6 | -25.3 -13.5  255  65 33   7.5   4.1
 19500 -25.3 -13.5  265  70 36   4.8   2.6 | -24.2 -11.6  255  62 32   7.5   4.1
 19000 -24.5 -12.1  265  68 35   4.8   2.6 | -23.0  -9.4  255  59 30   7.5   4.1
 18500 -23.8 -10.8  265  66 34   4.7   2.6 | -21.9  -7.4  255  57 29   7.6   4.2
 18000 -23.0  -9.4  265  64 33   6.2   3.4 | -20.3  -4.5  255  55 28   7.2   4.0
 17500 -21.6  -6.9  270  60 31   6.4   3.5 | -19.2  -2.6  260  55 28   7.3   4.0
 17000 -20.7  -5.3  270  57 30   5.7   3.1 | -18.4  -1.1  265  54 28   3.8   2.1
 16500 -19.9  -3.8  270  54 28   5.8   3.2 | -17.8  -0.0  265  51 26   4.1   2.3
 16000 -19.0  -2.2  270  50 26   6.1   3.4 | -17.1   1.2  270  48 25   4.1   2.2
 15500 -18.1  -0.6  270  45 23   6.3   3.5 | -16.5   2.3  270  45 23   4.1   2.3
 15000 -17.2   1.0  270  40 21   6.7   3.7 | -15.8   3.6  275  42 22   5.5   3.0
 14500 -16.1   3.0  270  37 19   7.2   4.0 | -14.8   5.4  275  37 19   6.4   3.5
 14000 -15.1   4.8  270  35 18   7.5   4.1 | -13.9   7.0  275  33 17   6.2   3.4
 13500 -13.9   7.0  270  34 18   8.1   4.5 | -13.0   8.6  275  31 16   5.6   3.1
 13000 -12.7   9.1  275  33 17   8.2   4.5 | -12.2  10.0  280  29 15   6.1   3.3
 12500 -11.4  11.5  275  33 17   8.6   4.7 | -11.2  11.8  280  27 14   7.4   4.1
 12000 -10.2  13.6  280  32 17   8.5   4.6 | -10.1  13.8  280  25 13   7.9   4.3
 11500  -8.9  16.0  280  33 17   8.0   4.4 |  -8.8  16.2  280  25 13   9.0   4.9
 11000  -7.8  18.0  280  35 18   7.4   4.1 |  -7.5  18.5  285  25 13   7.7   4.2
 10500  -6.8  19.8  280  33 17   5.5   3.0 |  -6.6  20.1  285  23 12   5.3   2.9
 10250  -6.4  20.5  280  31 16   6.5   3.6 |  -6.2  20.8  285  21 11   6.3   3.4
 10000  -6.0  21.2  280  30 15   3.3   1.8 |  -5.9  21.4  285  20 10   2.5   1.4
  9750  -6.0  21.2  280  29 15  -0.7  -0.4 |  -5.9  21.4  285  20 10  -1.8  -1.0
  9500  -6.0  21.2  285  26 14  -0.3  -0.2 |  -6.0  21.2  285  18  9  -1.0  -0.5
  9250  -6.0  21.2  285  24 12  -0.4  -0.2 |  -6.1  21.0  290  15  8  -1.7  -0.9
  9000  -6.1  21.0  285  21 11  -2.8  -1.5 |  -6.3  20.7  290  14  7  -3.6  -2.0
  8750  -6.5  20.3  290  19 10  -7.1  -3.9 |  -6.7  19.9  300  12  6  -7.0  -3.8
  8500  -7.2  19.0  295  16  8  -9.3  -5.1 |  -7.4  18.7  310  10  5  -9.9  -5.4
  8250  -7.9  17.8  300  13  7  -9.3  -5.1 |  -8.1  17.4  320   8  4  -8.9  -4.9
  8000  -8.5  16.7  310  11  6  -8.9  -4.9 |  -8.7  16.3  340   7  4  -7.5  -4.1
  7750  -9.2  15.4  320   9  5  -8.3  -4.6 |  -9.2  15.4  360   7  4  -7.3  -4.0
  7500  -9.8  14.4  335   8  4  -7.0  -3.9 |  -9.7  14.5  015   7  4  -4.9  -2.7
  7250 -10.2  13.6  350   7  4  -3.6  -2.0 |  -9.9  14.2  025   7  4  -0.5  -0.3
  7000 -10.3  13.5  355   7  3  -1.4  -0.8 |  -9.8  14.4  030   7  4   1.2   0.6
  6750 -10.4  13.3  005   6  3  -2.7  -1.5 |  -9.8  14.4  035   7  4   0.5   0.3
  6500 -10.6  12.9  015   6  3   0.6   0.3 |  -9.6  14.7  040   6  3   3.9   2.1
  6250 -10.4  13.3  010   5  3   3.2   1.8 |  -9.2  15.4  040   5  3   6.7   3.7
  6000 -10.2  13.6  005   4  2   3.3   1.8 |  -8.8  16.2  040   4  2   5.2   2.9
  5750 -10.0  14.0  355   3  2   0.4   0.2 |  -8.3  17.1  045   2  1   9.4   5.2
  5500 -10.3  13.5  325   1  1 -10.0  -5.5 |  -7.3  18.9  045   2  1  17.9   9.8

           03/01/2015 at 1400 MST          |       03/01/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +9.4  LI... +279.1              | K index... +12.2  LI... +277.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.0 -72.4  260  54 28   0.5   0.3 | -58.2 -72.8  260  58 30   0.5   0.3
 45000 -57.3 -71.1  255  74 38   0.6   0.3 | -57.4 -71.3  255  73 38   0.6   0.4
 40000 -57.3 -71.1  260 103 53  -0.0  -0.0 | -58.1 -72.6  255 107 55  -0.5  -0.3
 38000 -56.6 -69.9  255 114 58   3.4   1.9 | -57.1 -70.8  255 116 60   4.4   2.4
 36000 -54.2 -65.6  255 121 62   3.4   1.9 | -54.5 -66.1  255 120 62   4.4   2.4
 34000 -52.0 -61.6  255 127 65   7.1   3.9 | -51.8 -61.2  255 123 63   6.7   3.7
 32000 -47.8 -54.0  255 122 63   6.9   3.8 | -47.6 -53.7  255 120 62   6.9   3.8
 30000 -43.7 -46.7  255 116 60   6.2   3.4 | -43.5 -46.3  255 117 60   7.0   3.8
 29000 -41.9 -43.4  255 111 57   6.0   3.3 | -41.0 -41.8  255 112 58   6.7   3.7
 28000 -40.1 -40.2  255 106 54   6.0   3.3 | -38.9 -38.0  255 109 56   6.7   3.7
 27000 -38.3 -36.9  260 101 52   6.0   3.3 | -36.9 -34.4  255 105 54   6.6   3.6
 26000 -36.4 -33.5  255  93 48   6.4   3.5 | -35.1 -31.2  255  98 51   6.2   3.4
 25000 -34.5 -30.1  255  84 43   6.4   3.5 | -33.2 -27.8  255  91 47   6.2   3.4
 24000 -32.6 -26.7  250  75 39   6.3   3.5 | -31.4 -24.5  255  84 43   6.2   3.4
 23000 -30.3 -22.5  250  72 37   8.1   4.4 | -29.6 -21.3  255  79 40   6.2   3.4
 22000 -27.9 -18.2  250  71 36   8.1   4.5 | -27.7 -17.9  255  74 38   6.2   3.4
 21000 -25.5 -13.9  250  70 36   7.9   4.3 | -25.9 -14.6  255  69 35   6.6   3.6
 20000 -23.6 -10.5  250  65 33   5.8   3.2 | -23.7 -10.7  250  63 32   7.4   4.0
 19500 -22.8  -9.0  250  62 32   5.8   3.2 | -22.6  -8.7  250  60 31   7.4   4.0
 19000 -21.9  -7.4  255  59 30   5.8   3.2 | -21.5  -6.7  250  57 29   7.4   4.1
 18500 -20.6  -5.1  255  55 28   5.3   2.9 | -20.5  -4.9  250  54 28   7.3   4.0
 18000 -19.9  -3.8  255  51 26   4.9   2.7 | -19.5  -3.1  245  50 26   6.2   3.4
 17500 -19.1  -2.4  260  47 24   4.9   2.7 | -18.6  -1.5  245  47 24   6.4   3.5
 17000 -18.4  -1.1  260  44 23   5.1   2.8 | -17.7   0.1  245  43 22   5.3   2.9
 16500 -17.6   0.3  255  40 21   4.9   2.7 | -16.9   1.6  245  39 20   5.1   2.8
 16000 -16.8   1.8  255  38 20   7.4   4.0 | -16.2   2.8  245  35 18   5.3   2.9
 15500 -15.7   3.7  260  38 20   7.5   4.1 | -15.4   4.3  240  31 16   5.5   3.0
 15000 -14.6   5.7  260  37 19   5.0   2.8 | -14.2   6.4  240  25 13   5.2   2.8
 14500 -14.1   6.6  260  34 18   3.9   2.1 | -13.4   7.9  235  21 11   5.1   2.8
 14000 -13.5   7.7  265  31 16   4.7   2.6 | -12.7   9.1  235  18  9   5.9   3.2
 13500 -12.7   9.1  265  27 14   5.9   3.2 | -11.7  10.9  230  17  9   6.4   3.5
 13000 -11.8  10.8  265  22 11   6.2   3.4 | -10.8  12.6  225  15  8   5.8   3.2
 12500 -10.8  12.6  260  19 10   6.7   3.7 | -10.0  14.0  225  15  7   5.1   2.8
 12000  -9.8  14.4  255  15  8   6.5   3.6 |  -9.3  15.3  220  14  7   5.4   3.0
 11500  -8.9  16.0  250  14  7   6.2   3.4 |  -8.4  16.9  220  12  6   5.8   3.2
 11000  -7.9  17.8  250  12  6   5.2   2.9 |  -7.5  18.5  220  11  6   3.3   1.8
 10500  -7.3  18.9  250  11  6   4.0   2.2 |  -7.4  18.7  215   9  5   0.6   0.4
 10250  -7.0  19.4  245  10  5   4.1   2.2 |  -7.4  18.7  210   8  4   0.4   0.2
 10000  -6.8  19.8  245  10  5   1.7   0.9 |  -7.4  18.7  210   7  4   0.7   0.4
  9750  -6.8  19.8  250   9  5  -2.2  -1.2 |  -7.4  18.7  210   7  3  -2.2  -1.2
  9500  -7.0  19.4  255   8  4  -3.0  -1.6 |  -7.6  18.3  210   5  3  -4.7  -2.6
  9250  -7.3  18.9  260   7  4  -3.3  -1.8 |  -7.9  17.8  215   4  2  -3.8  -2.1
  9000  -7.6  18.3  270   6  3  -4.3  -2.4 |  -8.2  17.2  210   3  2  -3.4  -1.9
  8750  -7.9  17.8  280   4  2  -6.0  -3.3 |  -8.4  16.9  195   2  1  -3.2  -1.8
  8500  -8.5  16.7  300   3  1  -8.5  -4.7 |  -8.7  16.3  165   2  1  -3.5  -1.9
  8250  -9.1  15.6  345   2  1  -5.9  -3.2 |  -8.9  16.0  130   2  1  -2.8  -1.5
  8000  -9.3  15.3  030   2  1  -2.9  -1.6 |  -9.1  15.6  120   3  1  -1.9  -1.0
  7750  -9.6  14.7  050   4  2  -4.4  -2.4 |  -9.2  15.4  115   3  2  -2.7  -1.5
  7500  -9.8  14.4  065   5  3  -1.4  -0.8 |  -9.3  15.3  115   4  2   0.2   0.1
  7250  -9.7  14.5  065   5  3   3.8   2.1 |  -9.1  15.6  110   4  2   4.9   2.7
  7000  -9.4  15.1  070   5  3   4.6   2.5 |  -8.7  16.3  105   4  2   6.2   3.4
  6750  -9.1  15.6  070   4  2   5.5   3.0 |  -8.3  17.1  105   4  2   4.6   2.5
  6500  -8.6  16.5  070   3  2   8.8   4.8 |  -8.0  17.6  095   4  2   6.8   3.7
  6250  -7.8  18.0  070   3  2  10.1   5.6 |  -7.3  18.9  090   4  2   9.6   5.3
  6000  -7.1  19.2  065   3  1   9.4   5.1 |  -6.7  19.9  080   4  2   9.2   5.1
  5750  -6.4  20.5  065   3  1  11.5   6.3 |  -6.0  21.2  075   4  2   9.2   5.1
  5500  -5.3  22.5  060   3  1  16.3   8.9 |  -5.4  22.3  070   3  2   7.2   3.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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