Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 051301
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0601 MST Thursday, March 5, 2015

This forecast is for Thursday, March 5, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 38.7 F/3.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 444 ft/min (2.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11301 ft MSL (6462 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 46.0 F/8.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10052 ft MSL (5213 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 03/06....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:40:58 / 18:09:38 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 28 min 40 sec (688 min 40 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:25:31 MST... 44.96 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/05/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 18118 ft MSL (13279 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14309 ft MSL (9470 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.5
K index......................... -1.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -55.8 -68.4   265   36   19   5.9   3.2  111.3 232.4    58.5      M    M
 45000  -52.3 -62.1   290   38   19  -2.3  -1.3   92.3 198.2    51.1      M    M
 40000  -54.1 -65.4   295   32   16   3.1   1.7   66.0 150.9    37.6      M    M
 38000  -53.1 -63.6   300   31   16  -9.5  -5.2   58.8 137.8    33.8      M    M
 36000  -54.8 -66.6   310   37   19   0.7   0.4   47.4 117.3    27.0      M    M
 34000  -54.4 -65.9   325   34   18   4.6   2.5   38.5 101.3    21.6      M    M
 32000  -56.0 -68.8   335   45   23   0.4   0.2   28.1  82.5    14.6      M    M
 30000  -52.7 -62.9   345   41   21   8.6   4.7   24.4  76.0    12.3      M    M
 29000  -50.1 -58.2   345   41   21   8.7   4.8   23.9  75.0    12.1      M    M
 28000  -47.5 -53.5   350   41   21   8.7   4.8   23.5  74.3    11.9      M    M
 27000  -44.9 -48.8   350   42   21   8.7   4.8   23.2  73.8    11.9      M    M
 26000  -42.2 -44.0   350   42   22   8.7   4.8   23.0  73.5    11.9      M    M
 25000  -39.6 -39.3   345   43   22   8.7   4.8   22.6  72.7    11.7      M    M
 24000  -37.0 -34.6   340   44   23   8.4   4.6   22.1  71.8    11.5      M    M
 23000  -34.6 -30.3   340   46   24   7.9   4.3   21.5  70.7    11.1      M    M
 22000  -32.4 -26.3   335   47   24   7.0   3.9   20.6  69.0    10.5      M    M
 21000  -30.3 -22.5   335   42   22   7.9   4.3   19.6  67.3     9.8      M    M
 20000  -27.8 -18.0   340   37   19   9.4   5.2   19.1  66.3     9.5      M    M
 19500  -26.4 -15.5   340   35   18   9.4   5.2   19.0  66.2     9.5      M    M
 19000  -24.3 -11.7   335   33   17   9.4   5.2   18.9  66.0     9.5      M    M
 18500  -22.9  -9.2   330   32   16   9.3   5.1   18.9  66.0     9.5      M    M
 18000  -21.8  -7.2   330   32   16   5.9   3.3   18.4  65.2     9.2      M    M
 17500  -20.8  -5.4   330   32   16   6.2   3.4   17.8  64.0     8.6      M    M
 17000  -19.9  -3.8   330   31   16   6.3   3.4   17.2  62.9     8.2      M    M
 16500  -19.0  -2.2   330   31   16   6.2   3.4   16.6  61.9     7.7      M    M
 16000  -18.0  -0.4   330   31   16   6.7   3.7   16.1  60.9     7.2      M    M
 15500  -17.0   1.4   330   31   16   6.1   3.3   15.6  60.0     6.8      M    M
 15000  -16.3   2.7   325   30   16   5.4   3.0   14.8  58.6     6.1      M    M
 14500  -15.2   4.6   325   30   16   8.0   4.4   14.3  57.8     5.7      M    M
 14000  -14.0   6.8   325   30   15   8.0   4.4   14.0  57.2     5.6      M    M
 13500  -12.7   9.1   320   28   14   6.0   3.3   13.8  56.9     5.5      M    M
 13000  -12.5   9.5   315   26   14   3.2   1.7   12.4  54.3     4.2      M    M
 12500  -11.4  11.5   310   25   13   8.1   4.4   12.0  53.7     3.9      M    M
 12000  -11.1  12.0   305   24   12  -3.1  -1.7   10.7  51.3     2.7      M    M
 11500  -11.7  10.9   295   19   10  -3.5  -1.9    8.5  47.4     0.6      M    M
 11000  -11.5  11.3   285   15    8   3.7   2.0    7.2  44.9    -0.7    428  2.2
 10500  -11.1  12.0   265   12    6   0.1   0.1    6.1  43.0    -1.7    401  2.0
 10250  -11.3  11.7   250   11    6   0.7   0.4    5.2  41.4    -2.6    397  2.0
 10000  -11.0  12.2   245   11    6   6.6   3.6    4.8  40.6    -3.1    381  1.9
  9750  -10.4  13.3   250   12    6   7.8   4.3    4.6  40.3    -3.3    357  1.8
  9500   -9.8  14.4   250   12    6   7.5   4.1    4.4  40.0    -3.4    332  1.7
  9250   -9.3  15.3   255   12    6   7.6   4.2    4.3  39.7    -3.6    308  1.6
  9000   -8.7  16.3   255   13    7   7.5   4.1    4.1  39.4    -3.8    284  1.4
  8750   -8.1  17.4   245   11    6   7.6   4.2    3.9  39.1    -3.9    259  1.3
  8500   -7.6  18.3   235   10    5   7.5   4.1    3.8  38.8    -4.1    235  1.2
  8250   -7.0  19.4   215    9    5   7.8   4.3    3.6  38.5    -4.3    211  1.1
  8000   -6.5  20.3   200    9    5   5.6   3.1    3.4  38.1    -4.5    187  0.9
  7750   -6.1  21.0   180   10    5   3.5   1.9    2.9  37.3    -4.9    170  0.9
  7500   -5.8  21.6   170   12    6   4.5   2.5    2.5  36.5    -5.3    152  0.8
  7250   -5.5  22.1   160   15    8   2.8   1.5    2.1  35.7    -5.7    135  0.7
  7000   -5.4  22.3   155   17    9  -1.8  -1.0    1.4  34.4    -6.4    126  0.6
  6750   -5.7  21.7   155   16    8  -5.1  -2.8    0.3  32.6    -7.5    128  0.6
  6500   -6.0  21.2   150   14    7  -0.0  -0.0   -0.7  30.7    -8.5    129  0.7
  6250   -5.7  21.7   145   12    6   7.0   3.8   -1.1  30.0    -9.0    112  0.6
  6000   -5.1  22.8   135   10    5   7.8   4.3   -1.3  29.7    -9.2     88  0.4
  5750   -4.6  23.7   130   10    5   7.5   4.1   -1.5  29.4    -9.4     63  0.3
  5500   -4.0  24.8   125   11    6   7.9   4.4   -1.6  29.1    -9.5     39  0.2
  5250   -3.4  25.9   120   12    6   6.4   3.5   -1.8  28.8    -9.7     15  0.1
  5000   -3.3  26.1   120   10    5  -5.6  -3.1   -2.4  27.7   -10.4      4  0.0

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/05/2015 at 0800 MST          |       03/05/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -5.6  LI... +7.7                | K index... -9.5  LI... +7.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.7 -70.1  290  36 19   2.5   1.4 | -56.7 -70.1  290  34 17   2.2   1.2
 45000 -52.9 -63.2  295  39 20   2.7   1.5 | -53.4 -64.1  290  39 20   2.3   1.3
 40000 -52.7 -62.9  305  37 19  -0.1  -0.0 | -53.1 -63.6  310  36 19   0.0   0.0
 38000 -53.4 -64.1  310  36 18  -3.3  -1.8 | -54.0 -65.2  320  36 18  -3.8  -2.1
 36000 -55.4 -67.7  325  34 18  -3.3  -1.8 | -56.2 -69.2  340  38 19  -3.8  -2.1
 34000 -57.4 -71.3  335  34 18  -0.1  -0.0 | -58.4 -73.1  360  44 22   2.3   1.2
 32000 -54.9 -66.8  345  37 19   4.4   2.4 | -54.7 -66.5  360  45 23   6.2   3.4
 30000 -52.1 -61.8  355  41 21   8.0   4.4 | -50.9 -59.6  355  46 24   8.0   4.4
 29000 -49.4 -56.9  350  40 21   8.9   4.9 | -48.5 -55.3  355  43 22   8.0   4.4
 28000 -46.7 -52.1  345  40 20   8.9   4.9 | -46.1 -51.0  355  40 20   8.0   4.4
 27000 -44.0 -47.2  340  40 20   9.0   4.9 | -43.7 -46.7  355  37 19   7.9   4.4
 26000 -41.5 -42.7  340  38 20   8.3   4.6 | -41.0 -41.8  355  36 18   9.1   5.0
 25000 -39.0 -38.2  335  35 18   8.3   4.6 | -38.3 -36.9  350  35 18   9.1   5.0
 24000 -36.5 -33.7  335  33 17   8.3   4.6 | -35.6 -32.1  345  35 18   9.2   5.0
 23000 -34.0 -29.2  335  32 16   8.4   4.6 | -33.0 -27.4  345  34 17   8.4   4.6
 22000 -31.4 -24.5  335  31 16   8.4   4.6 | -29.8 -21.6  345  33 17   8.5   4.6
 21000 -28.3 -18.9  335  31 16   8.5   4.7 | -27.3 -17.1  345  32 16   7.4   4.1
 20000 -25.7 -14.3  335  30 15   8.5   4.7 | -25.1 -13.2  340  30 16   7.5   4.1
 19500 -24.5 -12.1  340  30 15   8.5   4.7 | -24.0 -11.2  340  29 15   7.5   4.1
 19000 -23.2  -9.8  340  30 15   8.5   4.7 | -22.9  -9.2  340  29 15   7.3   4.0
 18500 -21.9  -7.4  340  29 15   8.1   4.4 | -21.6  -6.9  335  28 14   9.4   5.2
 18000 -20.7  -5.3  340  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -20.2  -4.4  335  27 14   9.4   5.1
 17500 -19.5  -3.1  335  29 15   7.7   4.2 | -18.8  -1.8  330  26 13   8.8   4.8
 17000 -18.5  -1.3  335  29 15   6.9   3.8 | -17.6   0.3  330  26 13   8.1   4.5
 16500 -17.4   0.7  335  29 15   6.9   3.8 | -16.3   2.7  330  26 13   8.0   4.4
 16000 -16.4   2.5  335  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -15.2   4.6  330  25 13   6.8   3.8
 15500 -15.3   4.5  335  28 14   7.2   3.9 | -14.2   6.4  325  25 13   7.1   3.9
 15000 -14.3   6.3  330  27 14   5.5   3.0 | -13.3   8.1  325  24 12   4.9   2.7
 14500 -13.5   7.7  330  26 13   5.4   2.9 | -12.5   9.5  325  23 12   5.0   2.8
 14000 -12.8   9.0  330  24 12   4.9   2.7 | -11.8  10.8  320  22 11   4.3   2.4
 13500 -12.1  10.2  325  22 12   4.8   2.6 | -11.2  11.8  320  20 10   4.2   2.3
 13000 -11.4  11.5  325  21 11   4.3   2.4 | -10.6  12.9  320  18  9   3.7   2.0
 12500 -10.8  12.6  320  19 10   4.1   2.2 | -10.1  13.8  315  16  8   3.6   2.0
 12000 -10.2  13.6  315  17  9   3.0   1.6 |  -9.6  14.7  315  14  7   2.5   1.4
 11500  -9.9  14.2  315  16  8   2.4   1.3 |  -9.3  15.3  310  13  7   2.2   1.2
 11000  -9.6  14.7  310  14  7   0.9   0.5 |  -9.1  15.6  305  12  6   1.3   0.7
 10500  -9.6  14.7  300  12  6   0.2   0.1 |  -8.9  16.0  295  11  6   1.1   0.6
 10250  -9.6  14.7  295  11  5   0.7   0.4 |  -8.9  16.0  290  10  5   1.3   0.7
 10000  -9.5  14.9  290  10  5   1.7   0.9 |  -8.8  16.2  285   9  5   1.6   0.9
  9750  -9.4  15.1  290   9  5   3.7   2.0 |  -8.6  16.5  280   8  4   3.5   1.9
  9500  -9.0  15.8  285   8  4   5.1   2.8 |  -8.3  17.1  275   8  4   4.9   2.7
  9250  -8.7  16.3  280   7  4   4.6   2.5 |  -7.9  17.8  270   7  4   4.9   2.7
  9000  -8.3  17.1  275   7  3   4.4   2.4 |  -7.6  18.3  270   6  3   5.3   2.9
  8750  -8.0  17.6  275   6  3   5.0   2.8 |  -7.2  19.0  265   6  3   5.3   2.9
  8500  -7.6  18.3  265   5  3   5.7   3.1 |  -6.8  19.8  265   5  3   5.1   2.8
  8250  -7.2  19.0  255   4  2   5.6   3.1 |  -6.5  20.3  255   5  2   4.7   2.6
  8000  -6.7  19.9  245   4  2   5.1   2.8 |  -6.1  21.0  245   4  2   4.1   2.2
  7750  -6.3  20.7  230   4  2   6.8   3.7 |  -5.8  21.6  235   4  2   6.0   3.3
  7500  -5.7  21.7  215   4  2   6.7   3.7 |  -5.2  22.6  220   4  2   7.7   4.2
  7250  -5.3  22.5  200   5  3   5.0   2.7 |  -4.7  23.5  215   4  2   7.2   3.9
  7000  -4.9  23.2  190   6  3   5.6   3.1 |  -4.2  24.4  205   4  2   7.0   3.9
  6750  -4.5  23.9  180   7  4   4.8   2.6 |  -3.6  25.5  200   4  2   8.2   4.5
  6500  -4.2  24.4  170   7  4   3.6   2.0 |  -2.9  26.8  200   4  2  10.1   5.5
  6250  -4.0  24.8  165   7  3   3.4   1.9 |  -2.2  28.0  200   4  2  10.3   5.6
  6000  -3.7  25.3  155   7  3   3.3   1.8 |  -1.4  29.5  200   4  2   9.9   5.4
  5750  -3.5  25.7  150   6  3   4.9   2.7 |  -0.6  30.9  200   4  2  14.4   7.9
  5500  -3.0  26.6  145   5  3   8.2   4.5 |   0.8  33.4  200   4  2  23.0  12.6
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/05/2015 at 1400 MST          |       03/05/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -8.9  LI... +7.9                | K index... -9.3  LI... +7.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.1 -69.0  285  34 18   2.3   1.2 | -57.0 -70.6  290  35 18   2.1   1.2
 45000 -52.5 -62.5  290  38 20   1.7   0.9 | -53.7 -64.7  285  40 21   1.2   0.7
 40000 -54.3 -65.7  315  35 18  -1.3  -0.7 | -55.6 -68.1  325  31 16  -1.3  -0.7
 38000 -55.3 -67.5  330  36 18  -2.8  -1.5 | -56.4 -69.5  340  34 18  -1.4  -0.8
 36000 -57.0 -70.6  350  40 20  -2.8  -1.5 | -57.2 -71.0  355  44 23  -1.4  -0.8
 34000 -58.3 -72.9  005  47 24   7.0   3.9 | -57.9 -72.2  005  56 29   3.6   2.0
 32000 -54.2 -65.6  360  50 26   6.8   3.7 | -53.4 -64.1  005  51 26   6.6   3.6
 30000 -50.0 -58.0  360  51 26   8.2   4.5 | -49.3 -56.7  360  47 24   8.3   4.6
 29000 -47.6 -53.7  360  48 24   8.1   4.5 | -46.8 -52.2  360  45 23   8.3   4.6
 28000 -45.1 -49.2  005  44 23   8.1   4.5 | -44.3 -47.7  360  43 22   8.3   4.6
 27000 -42.7 -44.9  005  41 21   8.3   4.5 | -41.8 -43.2  360  41 21   8.4   4.6
 26000 -40.1 -40.2  360  38 20   8.7   4.7 | -39.2 -38.6  355  38 20   8.6   4.7
 25000 -37.5 -35.5  355  36 19   8.7   4.7 | -36.7 -34.1  350  36 18   8.6   4.7
 24000 -35.0 -31.0  345  35 18   8.6   4.7 | -34.1 -29.4  350  33 17   8.5   4.7
 23000 -32.4 -26.3  345  33 17   8.5   4.7 | -31.6 -24.9  350  31 16   8.3   4.5
 22000 -29.8 -21.6  345  31 16   8.5   4.7 | -29.1 -20.4  350  30 15   8.3   4.5
 21000 -27.3 -17.1  345  30 15   8.2   4.5 | -26.7 -16.1  350  28 14   8.1   4.4
 20000 -24.9 -12.8  345  27 14   8.0   4.4 | -24.3 -11.7  350  25 13   8.1   4.4
 19500 -23.7 -10.7  345  26 13   8.1   4.4 | -23.1  -9.6  345  24 12   8.1   4.4
 19000 -21.9  -7.4  350  24 12   8.1   4.4 | -21.9  -7.4  345  22 11   8.1   4.4
 18500 -20.7  -5.3  345  23 12   7.6   4.2 | -20.1  -4.2  340  21 11   7.5   4.1
 18000 -19.6  -3.3  345  23 12   7.6   4.2 | -19.0  -2.2  340  20 10   7.5   4.1
 17500 -18.5  -1.3  345  22 11   7.9   4.3 | -17.9  -0.2  335  19 10   7.4   4.1
 17000 -17.2   1.0  345  21 11   8.0   4.4 | -16.8   1.8  335  19 10   7.3   4.0
 16500 -16.0   3.2  340  20 11   8.1   4.4 | -15.7   3.7  335  19 10   7.4   4.1
 16000 -14.8   5.4  340  20 10   8.3   4.6 | -14.6   5.7  330  19 10   7.6   4.2
 15500 -13.6   7.5  335  20 10   8.4   4.6 | -13.4   7.9  330  19 10   7.6   4.1
 15000 -12.5   9.5  335  21 11   5.2   2.9 | -12.4   9.7  330  19 10   6.4   3.5
 14500 -11.7  10.9  335  21 11   5.7   3.1 | -11.4  11.5  330  19 10   6.7   3.7
 14000 -11.0  12.2  330  21 11   4.2   2.3 | -10.5  13.1  335  19 10   4.9   2.7
 13500 -10.3  13.5  330  20 10   4.3   2.4 |  -9.8  14.4  335  19 10   5.1   2.8
 13000  -9.7  14.5  325  18  9   3.6   2.0 |  -9.1  15.6  335  18  9   3.6   2.0
 12500  -9.2  15.4  320  16  8   3.5   1.9 |  -8.6  16.5  330  16  8   3.6   2.0
 12000  -8.7  16.3  315  14  7   3.3   1.8 |  -8.1  17.4  325  15  8   3.4   1.8
 11500  -8.3  17.1  310  13  6   3.4   1.9 |  -7.6  18.3  320  13  7   3.4   1.9
 11000  -7.8  18.0  300  11  6   2.0   1.1 |  -7.1  19.2  315  11  6   2.8   1.5
 10500  -7.6  18.3  290  10  5   2.0   1.1 |  -6.7  19.9  305  10  5   2.9   1.6
 10250  -7.4  18.7  285  10  5   1.6   0.9 |  -6.5  20.3  300   9  5   2.6   1.4
 10000  -7.3  18.9  285   9  5   1.8   1.0 |  -6.3  20.7  300   9  5   3.0   1.7
  9750  -7.1  19.2  280   9  5   4.5   2.5 |  -6.1  21.0  295   9  5   4.7   2.6
  9500  -6.7  19.9  275   9  4   5.8   3.2 |  -5.7  21.7  290   8  4   5.4   3.0
  9250  -6.3  20.7  270   8  4   5.2   2.8 |  -5.3  22.5  290   8  4   5.2   2.8
  9000  -6.0  21.2  270   8  4   4.7   2.6 |  -4.9  23.2  290   8  4   4.9   2.7
  8750  -5.6  21.9  265   8  4   6.5   3.5 |  -4.6  23.7  290   7  4   7.0   3.8
  8500  -5.1  22.8  260   7  3   6.6   3.6 |  -4.0  24.8  290   6  3   7.4   4.1
  8250  -4.7  23.5  260   6  3   4.3   2.4 |  -3.6  25.5  290   6  3   5.3   2.9
  8000  -4.5  23.9  255   5  2   4.1   2.2 |  -3.2  26.2  285   5  3   5.2   2.9
  7750  -4.2  24.4  250   4  2   4.6   2.5 |  -2.8  27.0  280   4  2   5.5   3.0
  7500  -3.8  25.2  240   3  1   7.8   4.3 |  -2.4  27.7  275   4  2   5.8   3.2
  7250  -3.1  26.4  240   3  1   9.7   5.3 |  -2.0  28.4  270   3  1   5.9   3.3
  7000  -2.4  27.7  240   3  1   9.2   5.0 |  -1.6  29.1  255   2  1   5.3   2.9
  6750  -1.7  28.9  240   2  1   9.5   5.2 |  -1.2  29.8  210   1  0   7.9   4.3
  6500  -1.0  30.2  240   3  1  10.2   5.6 |  -0.5  31.1  215   1  1  10.2   5.6
  6250  -0.2  31.6  240   3  1  10.4   5.7 |   0.2  32.4  215   1  1   9.3   5.1
  6000   0.6  33.1  240   3  1  10.4   5.7 |   0.9  33.6  210   1  1   9.6   5.3
  5750   1.4  34.5  240   2  1  14.7   8.1 |   1.7  35.1  210   1  1  11.0   6.1
  5500   2.8  37.0  240   3  1  21.8  12.0 |   2.6  36.7  215   1  1  13.3   7.3
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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