Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 230211 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will move across the region on Saturday/Saturday evening.
  1-2 inches looks possible. A mix of freezing rain/sleet may
  occur over south central South Dakota late Saturday night.

- Snow will be heavy at times from late Saturday night through Monday.
  That alone will cause significantly reduced visibility and
  travel difficulty. Potential blizzard-causing winds are not
  expected to begin until early Sunday evening west river, moving
  over into eastern South Dakota later Sunday night lasting
  through Monday night. Travel will likely become difficult to
  impossible by Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

No major changes made to the forecast this evening. A band of
light snow is still expected to track from southwest to northeast
across the CWA during the overnight hours into the day Saturday.
No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Definitely an active pattern for the next few days. Mid-level
ridging will be in place for tnt and into Saturday. A weak wave is
expected to traverse the forecast area on Saturday, with most models
cranking out some light QPF/snow. There appears to have been a
downward projection with the amounts in the latest run. The main
system starts to lift out late Saturday night and Sunday. An initial
wave will bring increasing snowfall toward Sunday morning. Later in
the day Sunday, a stronger system moves northeast out of the western
trof, bringing copious UVM to the forecast area from late Sunday
through Monday. This is the time period where the greatest snow
accumulations are expected. NBM 48hr snowfall forecasts of 12 inches
or greater has remained fairly consistent over the last couple of
days in the 90-100% range. Deterministic model runs are bit more
timid concerning snow totals. Nonetheless, a decent storm is still
upon us come Sunday, with conditions likely heading downhill Sunday
through Monday as the wind increases significantly during that time,
as strong sfc low pushes through the SUX area. Given all the
clouds/pcpn, highs in the 20s and 30s is certainly expected through
the weekend, which is well below normal for the time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The ensembles continue to showcase the surface low of this large
winter system gathering steam over eastern Colorado by Sunday
morning, then working over toward southeast Nebraska/western Iowa by
Monday morning before taking that jog northeast through Minnesota
into Wisconsin Tuesday morning.

There is a 50 to 75 percent chance of 12 or more inches of snow
across the Missouri River valley between 7 PM CDT Saturday and 7 PM
CDT Monday.

There is a 75 to 100 percent chance of 12 or more inches of snow
east of the Missouri River valley between 7 PM CDT Saturday and 7 PM
CDT Monday.

There is a 75+ percent chance of sustained winds increasing to 25
mph or higher west river Saturday night. That high end probability
for strong wind translates over the entire Missouri River valley
region by Sunday afternoon, before working over into the James River
valley by late Sunday night. Guidance then highlights the strong
northerly winds extending over to the Minnesota/South Dakota border
by the end of the day on Monday.

So, the headline dilemma is whether or not, at some point in the
near future, to encompass all hazards for this event with a "winter
storm warning" and then message heavy snow first, with strong winds
to follow. Or, would it be preferred to simply go from a Watch "for
possible blizzard conditions" right straight to a blizzard warning.
The downside here is the potential for heavy snow to accumulate
prior to blizzard winds developing. Another option could be to
hoist a winter storm warning, initially, for the heavy snow
potential, and then upgrade counties in time, as appropriate, to a
blizzard warning as the winds begin to come up and visbies start
to tank.

Beyond the multi-day storm event, upper level ridging is forecast to
enter the scene, although widespread deep snow pack is expected to
hold any low level WAA at bay for much of the rest of the week. In
fact, low level WAA may increase fog potential over the snow field
by Thursday morning when surface high pressure over the region
slowly begins to be displaced further east. By Friday,
ensembles/deterministic guidance is suggesting the potential for
another bout with precipitation. Right now, a rain/snow mix is being
maintained for p-type with this day 7 potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this evening. An area
of light snow will track from southwest to northeast across the
area from the early overnight hours through the day Saturday. Cigs
will fall to MVFR levels late tonight at KPIR and KMBG, Saturday
morning at KABR, and early Saturday afternoon at KATY. Periods of
MVFR vsbys will occur with the snow.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Monday
     night for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Monday
     night for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Parkin


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.