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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold
front drops south of the area late this afternoon through
tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday
night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as
low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the
Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Early morning wx analysis shows low pressure located along a frontal
boundary over the upper eastern shore/southern DE, while an upper
shortwave is passing by just to our north. It is very mild with
temps in the 60s due to being in the warm sector south of the low.
The low will move offshore today and will drag a very weak cold
front through the are later this morning. Winds turn to the W then
NW behind the front but there will be little to no CAA (outside of
the MD Ern Shore) through the day. Outside of some low clouds on the
MD eastern shore (especially during the morning after the front
comes through), skies will average mostly sunny. With downsloping W-
NW winds and little in the way of CAA, temperatures will rebound
into the lower-mid 80s in most areas by the aftn (with 70s on the
eastern shore). Areas along the coast will probably see highs early
in the aftn with falling temperatures during the mid-late aftn
period as the flow turns onshore as a backdoor cold front arrives
from the NE.

That backdoor cold front will pick up speed as it crosses the area
from NW-SE from late this aftn-tonight, and am expecting it to move
SW of the CWA by late tonight with winds becoming NE area-wide
(could actually see some gusts to 25 mph near the coast this evening
for a few hours right after the front pushes through). Temps quickly
drop into the 50s after the FROPA and forecast lows range from the
mid 40s to lower 50s. In addition, low stratus will overspread the
entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind the front
(although not really expecting much in the way of fog with 5-15 mph
winds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to
Ontario/Quebec from today-Friday evening, and this will push a
stronger cold front toward the region (which will approach from the
NW). The backdoor front is progged to retreat during the day on Fri
as that stronger cold front approaches. The temperature forecast
will depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly
the low stratus burns off). Have trended the forecast cooler
(especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the eastern
shore) where temps likely won`t get out of the 60s. Temps may
struggle to reach 60F on Fri in/near Ocean City. Still think it
warms well into the 70s-80F across interior srn VA and NE NC. The
greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps on Fri is near
the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions range from the
60s to mid 70s).

Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon.
Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit
more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be
focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the
backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east. All of that
being said, this is not looking like a major rain event, or even
moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing
barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch.
The front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday
morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely
linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn
across far SE VA/NE NC...although PoPs are only 20% given the
expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial clearing
over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn as drier air filters
in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat are in the upper
60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if clouds/showers linger
longer than expected...which seems most likely across srn portions
of the area).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

A stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. On Sunday, a southern
stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast
states and into the Carolinas. The system then deepens offshore
Sunday night into Monday. This means that rain chances will return,
potentially by Sunday afternoon, and continue Sunday night into
Monday. The main forecast challenge lies in figuring out how far
north the rain will get, and this will have an impact on high temps
Sunday and potentially Monday if light rain lingers near the area on
the back side of the system. Forecast highs are in the 60s on both
days, but temps will drop into the 50s on Sun once the rain arrives
(and won`t get out of the 50s on Mon if the rain lingers long
enough). Exact details will be worked out in the coming days, but
have likely PoPs in far SE VA/NE NC late Sun-Mon AM tapering to
slight chance from LKU-SBY. High pressure briefly builds over the
area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the area
by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should
rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds
become southerly.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through this evening before deteriorating
tonight. Today will be dry despite a weak cold front crossing
the area during the morning-midday. Expect clear skies outside
of FEW-SCT cumulus during the late morning-aftn. Winds will
become NW at 5-10 kt by late morning-midday. Then, a backdoor
cold front crosses the terminals from NE to SW between 21-03z.
Winds become NE at ~10 kt (could see a brief period of 20 kt
gusts near the coast) following the FROPA. In addition, MVFR-
IFR stratus likely overspreads the entire area tonight/early
Fri AM as the front moves well SW of the terminals. MVFR to IFR
CIGs are likely at all of the terminals after 06z Fri.

Outlook: Conditions slowly improve Friday (although restrictions
may persist at SBY through much of the day) as the backdoor
front retreats to the NE. A stronger cold front arrives from the
NW and crosses the area late Friday/Friday night with scattered
showers. Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but
return later Sunday into early Monday as low pressure passes
through the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over Wisconsin with an
associated cold front extending SE then S across the Ohio Valley.
High pressure has moved well off the Southeast coast. A warm front
has lifted NE across the waters today with winds generally from the
S or SE 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Generally quiet marine conditions continue late this afternoon into
the first half of Thursday. A back door cold front is forecast to
drop from NE to SW Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds become
N then NW behind the front but are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. A series of fronts will move through the region Friday
into Saturday. The back door front returns north ahead of a stronger
cold front set to cross the waters early Saturday. N winds will
follow the second front but still below SCA levels. Seas may build
to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island Thursday
night into early Friday but with low confidence regarding the
magnitude and exact timing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/JKP
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR