961
FXUS61 KALY 041045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the New England coast will provide
continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain
nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system
slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually
increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west
of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become
widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area
with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...Main change was to increase PoPs across the western
Adirondacks into this morning based on current radar trends
showing scattered light showers associated with a weak
disturbance. Observations indicating only Trace to 0.01"
amounts. These showers should dissipate by later this morning
though and mid/upper level ridging becomes re-established. The
rest of the area should remain dry. Temperatures are in the 40s
to lower 50s to start the day.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0326]...Other than a few light showers or
sprinkles across the far NW Adirondacks early this morning, dry
conditions will persist. Mid level clouds continue to gradually
increase from the west.

Latest trends in guidance indicate surface high pressure
remaining positioned along the New England through this evening.
Ridging aloft will also be in place during this time. So
arrival of showers have been slowed even further, with the
day/evening now expected to be mainly dry. A few light/brief
showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson
Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening
mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with
occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high
temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s
to lower 70s expected across much of the area.

Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the
Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down
as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with
overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the
slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through
tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread
showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases
substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K
surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving
front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will
allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising
to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be
moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With
clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze,
highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest
elevations.

Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface
front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift
continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the
evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early
Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total
rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany
south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper
Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not
result in any hydro concerns.

Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area
and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great
Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through
the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during
the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild
temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from
mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing
dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid
level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most
valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas.

Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday,
as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass
through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several
bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded
thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below
normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to
around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs,
with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through this
evening, although a few patches of MVFR/IFR Cigs will remain
possible at KPSF through 13Z/Sat. MVFR Cigs should then develop
after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy
mid level clouds will increase late through today. Lower clouds
are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000
FT AGL, possibly dropping to 1500-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun.

Some spotty light rain may develop at KGFL, KALB and KPOU after
08Z/Sun, with better chances closer to and especially after
12Z/Sun.

Light/variable winds will become southeast to south winds and
increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning and continue into tonight. A
few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time.

Outlook...

Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL