579
FXUS63 KAPX 090353
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1153 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Interior patchy frost opportunity(ies) Thursday night (perhaps Sat
night?).

- Rain showers possible late Friday night into Saturday.

- Warming trend Sunday into mid next week with showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
An upper level short wave over Ontario CA with an axis
orientated NE/SW will deepen as it rotates over the Great Lakes
region tonight. Ahead of this shortwave, a skinny deformation
area will reach across northern MI and continue the mostly
cloudy skies through the late afternoon/evening hours. Skies
could eventually clear up before more move in tonight from the
north and south. Mid to high clouds will move in from the south
with lower clouds moving in from the north tonight. Cooler and
drier air will seep in from the north overnight. This leads to
some uncertainty with if fog will form tonight. Chances over
eastern upper and the southern CWA will be the lowest for haze
or fog, with northern lower near the tip of the mitt, Little
Traverse Bay, and near Alpena seeing better chances. Any fog
that does form should be patchy as it will be dependent on
clear skies overhead, light winds near the surface, and surface
moisture lingering.

Thursday, winds will be mostly northerly as the shortwave makes its
way over northern MI. A surface low will make its ways towards the
southern part of the state, with most precipitation likely missing
northern lower. Temperatures will be around 5 to 8 degrees cooler
than average Thursday with skies mostly cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Northwest to southeast moving trough Thursday night with low
pressure well to the south and east of the region. Compact upper low
on its heels Friday night into Saturday as it moves southeast,
center passing near or just to the south of southwest northern lower
Michigan spreading rain shower chances. Moisture advection and
energy resurrection (energy traverses the region or within the
vicinity once more) Sunday into mid next week will result in the
chance for rain showers again.

Primary Forecast Concerns:
Cool night is expected Thursday night as high pressure builds over
the area. If skies clear enough and winds become relatively calm,
could see temperatures close to frost range within the interior.
Have values between 35 and 37 degrees right now, so we`ll see how
this trends.

Upper level system digs down from Canada southeast into Upper
Midwest and is progged to pass near or just to the southwest of
southwest northern lower Friday night into Saturday. Thus, rain
chances along and north of this system are expected. Another
generally minor event but some guidance hinting at a band of modest
to moderate precipitation right under the cold pool aloft generally
southwest of Gaylord. Lingering showers Saturday afternoon then
clearing into Sunday. Temperatures will be cool as well, possibly
flirting with interior frosty temps Saturday night.

Warming trend is expected Sunday into the middle portions of next
week as heights rise and moisture increases as wind shift around to
the south. Some guidance indicating an influx of dewpoints into the
40s and 50s with a non-zero chance for thunder sporadically next
week, especially Monday when a weak feature aloft and a sfc boundary
is progged into the region (discrepancies on timing between
deterministic guidance). ENS guidance probs for >500J/kg of CAPE is
low to though so at this time not expecting a huge deal with this,
but worth monitoring as always in case the coarser resolution of the
ensembles is not capturing the complexity of the situation.
Temperatures rise into the mid 60s to low 70s during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Mostly VFR, except for some fog northern lower MI overnight.

Low pressure will pass south of MI on Thursday. This will
increase cloud cover, and could produce rain showers in southern
areas (MBL) on Thursday. Further north, drier low-level air has
made it into eastern upper MI, and VFR is expected. In northern
lower, there is enough low-level moisture to contribute to some
fog, especially given cloudier conditions now look like they
will be delayed.

Light winds early tonight, becoming ne and a bit gusty Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ