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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

000
FNUS73 KAPX 201150
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Walsh Barrens...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
750 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Breezy westerly winds today. Wind gusts of 20 to 25
mph will be common with isolated gusts to 30 mph. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered snow showers.
Continued gusty winds Sunday along with lower minimum relate
humidity could lead to elevated fire weather concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated snow
                    showers late in the afternoon. Scattered snow
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........46 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds around 12 mph.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......5200-5700 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Very good (1281.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  75  65  60  58  57  54
Weather cov.....            ISO ISO ISO SCT
Weather type....            SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  38  39  40  40  40  40
RH..............54  52  50  48  46  50  48
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..13  14  14  14  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.22  24  24  24  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.3 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.6
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  24  24  24  24  24  23
Vrate kt-ft.....1320128113151378130913581299
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Scattered snow
                    showers early in the evening, then isolated
                    snow showers early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 24.
Max humidity........81 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......4600-5400 ft AGL decreasing to 500-1200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good to very good (898.0-1233.0) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (41.0-537.0) early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........47  36  26  24  21  18  18  15  13  12  12  12
Weather cov.....SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  38  37  35  33  32  30  29  27  26  26  25
RH..............52  54  56  59  66  69  72  72  74  78  78  81
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  6   6   6   3   3   3   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.22  22  22  16  16  16  12  12  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 4.6 3.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Haines index....3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.23  20  16  13  10  9   8   9   9   10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....1233898 537 150 76  47  41  45  47  52  55  53
Ventrate Cat....VGD GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........30 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph increasing to 24 to 32 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2100 ft AGL increasing to 6000-6800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (66.0) increasing to excellent (2013.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     17     11     14     27     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............25     28     40     46     50     51
RH..............81     71     55     42     31     31
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      NW
20 ft wind spd..9      9      14     17     17     18
20 ft wind gust.17     17     22     28     28     29
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1000   4000   5700   6300   6800
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..W 12   W 15   W 24   W 28   W 30   NW 32
Vrate kt-ft.....66     150    963    1564   1871   2153
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...AJS
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411424.0/APX
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov