Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 170739
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
239 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be a cold start to the new week. High temperatures
  will range from the upper 20s to mid-30s today and in the 30s
  on Monday. Wind chills on Monday morning will be in the single
  digits above zero.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will be possible on
  Tuesday in the wake of a cold front.

- Periodic precipitation chances from Thursday through the
  weekend. Much uncertainty on temperatures and this greatly
  impacts the precipitation types.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today...

A Canadian cold front will move through the area this morning.
This front will produce some scattered snow flurries ahead of
it. In addition with cyclonic flow lingering along and north of
Interstate 94 this afternoon, scattered flurries will linger in
that area through much of the day.

Afternoon relative humidities will range from the mid-20s to
around 40. The lowest relative humidities will be south of
Interstate 94. Northwest winds will be mainly in the 10 to 20
mph range with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Those with burning
plans should remain alert for the potential that fires could get
out of control.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 20s to
mid-30s. Wind chills this morning will be in the single digits
and teens.

Monday...

High pressure will build across the area. Skies will mostly
sunny along and south of Interstate 90 and party to mostly
cloudy across the remainder of the area. High temperatures will
be mainly in the 30s. Early morning wind chills will be in the
single digits. Afternoon relative humidities will be mainly in
the 25 to 30% range. Fortunately, the west winds will be mainly
in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts up to 20 mph. This will
reduce the threat for potential wildfires.

Tuesday...

On Tuesday morning, another Canadian cold front will move
southeast through the region. Soundings continue to show very
little moisture ahead of this front, so expect that this front
will move through the region dry. High temperatures will be in
the mid- and upper 40s north of Interstate 94 and in the lower
and mid-50s elsewhere. Afternoon humidities will range from the
mid-20s to around 40. Northwest winds will be in the 15 to 25
mph range with wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 mph. This could
be another day where we could see near-critical fire weather.
Much of this depends on how much sunshine we see in the wake of
this system.

Thursday through the Weekend...

There continues to be much uncertainty on the 500 mb pattern in
the northern stream through this time period. This is resulting
in the spreads in high and low temperatures being much larger
than normal. In addition to increasing the uncertainty in
temperatures, it is also greatly increases the uncertainty in
precipitation types too. Due to this, stayed with the NBM
temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Low VFR ceilings fill back in late tonight and linger for much
of the day. There is about a 20 to 30 percent chance that
ceilings dip to high MVFR in the morning hours at elevated sites.
Winds remain from the northwest at 10-20G15-25kts through the
period, gradually lessening through the day. Flurries are
possible at times, mainly over central WI, but visibility
restrictions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

On Tuesday, afternoon humidities will range from the mid-20s to
around 40. Northwest winds will be in the 15 to 25 mph range
with wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 mph. This could be another
day where we could see near-critical fire weather conditions. Much
of this depends on how much sunshine we see in the wake of this
system.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Even though it will be cool on this St. Patrick`s Day, we were
even colder last year.

La Crosse, WI had a high temperature of 28F and a low
temperature of 9F. It was the coldest high and low temperature on
St. Patrick`s Day since 1993 (high temperature of 17F and low
temperature of 3F). The coldest high on St. Patrick`s Day was
10F in 1941 and the coldest low was -7F in 1941.

Rochester, MN had a high temperature of 21F and a low
temperature of 4F. It was the coldest high and low temperature on
St. Patrick`s Day since 1993 (high temperature was 11F and the
low temperature was -5F). The coldest high St. Patrick`s Day
was 10F in 1941 and the coldest low temperature was -10F in 1909.

More St Patrick`s Day weather and climate history can be found
at

weather.gov/arx/holiday_stpats

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow
FIRE...Boyne
CLIMATE...Boyne


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