427
AXNT20 KNHC 212120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico gale warning: A cold front is moving across the
Gulf of Mexico. Winds will briefly increase to gale force off the
coast of Tampico, Mexico tonight, with seas building to near 9 ft
during the period of gale force winds. Winds will diminish below
gale force Mon morning.

Western Atlantic gale warning: The same cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico will move off the east coast of Florida tonight. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front. Winds will increase to gale
force on Mon afternoon over the waters N of 30N W of the front.
The gale force winds will lift N of the area late Mon night. Seas
will build to near 15 ft during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from
02N24W to coastal Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N
between 05W and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 05N between 32W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features above for more on a gale warning in
the western Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to northern
Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are N of the front and W of 92W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the front. Light to
gentle winds are SE of the front, reaching moderate speeds S of
the front over the western Gulf. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over
the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere N of the front. Seas of 2-4 ft
are S of the front and W of 90W, and 1-3 ft S of the front and E
of 90W.

For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to
the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will
weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern
Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring
behind the front in the NW Gulf, lingering offshore of Veracruz
through Mon evening. Winds will pulse to gale force this evening
in the W Gulf. Seas will build to 10 ft during the strongest
winds. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of the front, with
gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the basin, and
moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh to strong
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure that had been N of the area is shifting eastward,
with pressures falling slightly. This has loosened the pressure
gradient across the Caribbean. The weaker pressure gradient is
supporting moderate to locally fresh winds in the central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central Caribbean,
and 3-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds just
offshore N Colombia tonight. Otherwise moderate to locally fresh
trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean.
Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing
to moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage,
and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may
reach into the Caribbean N of 20N Mon night, possibly bringing a
brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will
prevail across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale
conditions expected across the NW waters.

Weak ridging prevails across the western Atlantic, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 31N53W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center and along the ridge axis. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are off the coast of N Florida,
with gentle to moderate wind sS of the ridge to the Greater
Antilles. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. Farther
east, a 1007 mb low is centered near 31.5N35W, with a secondary
1010 mb low near 27.5N37W. A cold front extends from the second
low to near 23N43W, with a trough then continuing to the northern
Windward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the
low pressure centers, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore NE Florida this
evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon
evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening,
then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing
to gale speeds N of 30N Monday afternoon and spreading eastward.
Winds will decrease below gale late Monday night. Seas will build
to 15 ft with the strongest winds. The trough is forecast to
linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil
conditions for the end of the week.

$$
AL