075
AXNT20 KNHC 291602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 01N30W to 00N42W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and east of
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of strong thunderstorms are impacting the nearshore waters
of the northwest Gulf of Mexico north of 27N and west of 91W.
Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic
supports moderate to occasionally strong SE winds and moderate
seas over much of the Gulf

For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure system will
weaken over the next few days, resulting in diminishing winds and
decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south-
central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are
present south of Hispaniola, Windward Passage, and Gulf of
Honduras. Moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are found
across the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean waters.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. Pockets of low-level moisture traveling across the
Caribbean are producing isolated, weak showers.

For the forecast, high pressure centered between the Southeast US
and Bermuda will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras,
Windward Passage, and offshore southern Hispaniola will diminish
midweek. Northerly swell will push rough seas through the passages
in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
easterly winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Caribbean
Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will dominate elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 21N55W, with a pre-frontal
trough analyzed from 24N47W to 14N50W. A few showers are observed
east of the trough to 40W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong
southerly winds and moderate seas are noted ahead of the front to
37W and north of 27N. Behind the front, rough seas prevail to 70W
with moderate to fresh W to NW winds observed north of 28N to 63W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of
a broad subtropical ridge centered between the SE US and Bermuda
with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
1030 mb high pressure system located over the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over western
Africa support fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 15N and east
of 35W and moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh W to NW winds
behind a cold front that moved to the central subtropical Atlantic
waters this morning will continue to affect the NE offshore
waters north of 28N through Tue evening. Long-period northerly
swell with peak seas to 13 ft will start subsiding this evening as
the front continues to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong
winds will continue over the waters south of 23N and west of 70W
through late today, especially in the approaches of the Windward
Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards
as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Nepaul