754
AXNT20 KNHC 061013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N18W.
The ITCZ extends eastward from 05N18W to 02N34W and to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N along both
of these features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-E winds are
occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half of
the Gulf and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
in the rest of the basin.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE
winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong
winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern
and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in
southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in
the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and
surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move
farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will
remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds
and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall
continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local
weather advisories for more information.

high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and
eastern portions of the basin, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras.
Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the overall weather pattern will prevail into
mid-week. Late this week, SE winds will increase to fresh in the
Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure centered between Cape Hatteras and
Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of
60W. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 21N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and just ahead of the front.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front
to 28W and north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind
the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by
a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 15N and
west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa support fresh northerly winds north of 22N
and east of 21W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore
southern Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in
the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building N of the area
will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N through
mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center
well north of the region over the north central Atlantic will move
through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W tonight into Tue
night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off
northeast Florida starting Wed as the high pressure shifts
southeast ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.

$$
Konarik